This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
After a monstrous, 12-game slate on Wednesday, we come back to earth with four contests on Thursday. Let's begin with the latest odds from Vegas.
SLATE OVERVIEW
POR @ HOU (-4) O/U: 228.5
LAL @ DET (+10.5) O/U: 217.5
LAC @ MIA (-4.5) O/U: 215.5
GSW @ PHO (+1) O/U: 219.5
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALICS
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change
INJURIES
POR CJ McCollum (foot) - OUT
POR Robert Covington (concussion) - OUT
POR Derrick Jones (quad) - PROBABLE
POR Rodney Hood (thigh) - PROBABLE
Jones and Hood are expected to play, so while Gary Trent ($4,800) movies back to the bench, I still think you can make a play for him in GPP formats. With Covington out, the stage is set for Carmelo Anthony ($5,200) to keep things going in the frontcourt alongside Enes Kanter ($6,300), whose salary keeps rising, and rightfully so -- after 13 points and 22 rebounds against the Thunder, there appears to be little doubt about his upside. All three of these spots are playable Thursday.
LAC Kawhi Leonard (COVID-19) - OUT
LAC Paul George (COVID-19) - OUT
LAC Patrick Beverley (knee) - OUT
Since the injury situation is the same, let's take a look at the lines from the Clippers' last game against Atlanta:
Reggie Jackson ($5,000) 47.4 FDFP, 39 min
Terance Mann: ($4,500): 34.3 FDFP, 34 min
Luke Kennard: ($5,500): 31.6 FDFP, 28 min
Serge Ibaka ($6,200): 31.5 FDFP, 29 min
Ivica Zubac ($5,000): 26.5 FDFP, 18 min
Marcus Morris ($4,800): 18 FDFP, 24 min
Lou Williams ($6,000): 17.1 FDFP, 22 min
Nicolas Batum ($5,300): 14.3 FDFP, 33 min
What I glean from here is a rocky start for Batum, which gave way to increased run from Terance Mann and Luke Kennard, and both of them crushed 5x value at their respective salary points. Things are a little muddier under center, as Zubac had a much better FPPM number, but Ibaka scored more points.
Of the group, I think Jackson is the most reliable player out of the group and who you'll need to target for a PG slot. Mann's popularity gives me pause, and while I think he'll beat value again, he's more of a cash consideration, if anything. I feel similarly about Kennard, although I'd rank him slightly above Mann tonight. I think Williams and Batum have priced themselves out of this conversation, but I think Morris is still in play. At $4,800, he only needs a few more points and rebounds to be relevant. My order here is: Jackson, Ibaka, Kennard, Mann, Zubac, Morris, Williams, Batum.
MIA Jimmy Butler (COVID-19) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Tyler Herro (neck) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Goran Dragic (groin) - QUESTIONABLE
I don't see Butler taking the floor tonight, but a return from Herro and/or Dragic makes this team a little less palatable. Since they are taking on a compromised Clippers squad, we still need to give the Heat the green light. I think there's value in going straight down the line after Dragic. We'll discuss Adebayo in a moment, but my order here, assuming the injury situation holds, is: Kendrick Nunn ($6,200), Duncan Robinson ($4,700), Andre Iguodala ($4,300) and Precious Achiuwa ($3,500). I will be careful not to hit this spot too hard, however. I think the Clippers have more value-beating opportunities in this game.
PHO Devin Booker (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
Booker's been upgraded, but I doubt we'll see him on the floor. I will get into the targets for this game later in the article.
ELITE PLAYERS
We only have two players above 10k, and that's the duo of LeBron James ($10,700) and Anthony Davis ($10,200). After having their 10-game road win streak broken against the Sixers, they travel to Detroit in what looks to be a potential blowout scenario. That, and the back-to-back, make me wonder if one of them will rest tonight. James has tirelessly played at an extremely high level over the past week, but it's much less common to see him sit compared to Anthony Davis. Either way, I don't see a pressing need to go this high on the slate, as we have plenty of acceptable options at both positions. If you find that you can afford them, I'd go with Davis over James,
While it makes a lot of sense to lock up the PG slots and go with Damian Lillard ($9,700) and Stephen Curry ($9,800), I think you can only go with one or the other tonight. The PG slot has some cheaper plays and budget options that you'll need to balance out your lineup. Due to Golden State's back-to-back, I'd lean toward Lillard.
With a PF designation, Bam Adebayo ($9,200) is a lock against the short-handed Clippers. Despite his inflated price, there are several ways to get him into one of the PF slots with such a slim slate. He had a bit of regression against Denver, but we should see him run above 40 FDFP once again. Christian Wood ($9,500) is set to return, but I think this price is slightly too high.
EXPECTED CHALK
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($8,300) vs. GS
It's a little difficult to get behind Ayton at this price, but the prospect of getting over the Warriors' frontcourt is enticing, which is why Ayton my emerge as a premier option in this slim slate. While I am very high on Enes Kanter ($6,500) at center and will have him in several lineups, Ayton presents an opportunity to get a little different on Thursday. If you look at his numbers against the Rockets recently, you get an idea of his upside against Golden State, which has a similar frontcourt archetype.
Chris Paul, PHO ($7,400) vs. GS
Give this target a downgrade if Booker manages to make it tonight. Otherwise, expect Paul to continue his torrid streak of production as he carries the load in the backcourt. The reasonable salary and dependable floor should reap dividends, and he'll thrive against the Warriors.
VALUE PLAYS ($6,667 and below)
Refer to the injury section above for a wide array of value options, especially with the Clippers, where I anticipate a good deal of the 4-5k options will come from on this slate.
Montrezl Harrell, LAL ($5,400) @ DET
Another way to get different at center is making a play for Harrell, who could elevate into a larger role if this game gets out of hand. With a nightly ability to get close to 25 FDFP, we've seen his minutes spike in blowout scenarios. You don't want to fiddle with a negative correlation and put him next to Davis in your lineups, but he's a low-cost way to get involved in the Lakers in an exploitable spot.
Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,200) @ HOU
I realize he already had a mention in the injury section, but he merits his own paragraph on this slate. You could call this game a bit of a revenge scenario, but I like another metric much better when looking at Anthony's upside. He's attempted 35 shots over the past two games and is also letting lose with some decent three-point shooting as well. A long as his minutes hover around 30 minutes, we should see another encouraging outing from Anthony, who sees his numbers climb alongside Enes Kanter (who again is a top target tonight). With Robert Covington out, I think Anthony's numbers will benefit as well.
Jae Crowder, PHO ($5,200) vs. GS
As long as Devin Booker is out, I like the rest of the group in Phoenix's tight rotation. Crowder's excelled over the past couple of games and has shown that he can get over 26 FDFP (5x value) with an appropriate minute count without much of a problem. There's a slight correlation concern in rostering Cameron Johnson ($4,600) alongside Crowder tonight, but I think he is another viable option for the Suns.
Anfernee Simons, POR ($3,500) @ HOU
I waited until the end to spring this punt play on you. Even though Gary Trent has excelled in the hole left by McCollum, he's very points-dependent. The same is true for Simons, but at this salary, he only needs to hit 17 FDFP to be relevant. He's averaged 21 FDFP over the past three games, so the potential for 6x value is right in front of him if he gets enough minutes.
