The NBA All-Star break officially came to a close Wednesday, as play resumed following a five-day hiatus. With 68 days to finish up a condensed regular season, it will be a sprint to the finish for both the league's 30 teams, as well as fantasy managers.
While the All-Star break is billed as the "halfway point" in the NBA calendar, in a typical league year it's actually closer to the two-thirds mark. But in this unique season, the break marked almost the exact midway point for most of the league. That means there's still plenty of time for fantasy managers to tweak their rosters and move up or down the standings.
As we look toward what lies ahead over the next two months, here are our predictions for the remainder of the fantasy basketball season:
Jusuf Nurkic redeems himself
Easily one of the season's biggest disappointments thus far, Nurkic got off to an agonizingly slow start before fracturing his wrist back on Jan. 14. It's unclear when, exactly, the big man will return to action, but he's set to be evaluated this week and if all goes well could be back within the next week or two.
In his 12 appearances, Nurkic ranked outside the top-140 in per-game value. That's more than 100 spots below his Yahoo ADP (37). He's missed enough time that his season will end up being a disappointment no matter what, but Nurkic will have roughly 30-35 games to recoup as much fantasy value as possible. It's hard to look at his early numbers and feel overly confident, but it's worth noting that Nurkic had his best game of the season -- 18pts, 12reb, 2stl, 3blk -- in his final appearance before the injury. The big man is just seven months removed from averaging 16.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks in 14 games in the Orlando bubble. - Nick Whalen
LaMelo Ball finishes the season ranked inside the top 15
The Rookie of the Year favorite hit the ground running in January and hasn't looked back. For the season, Ball ranks 22nd in total value (8-cat), and over the last month, he jumps all the way up to 12th overall. The eventual return of Devonte' Graham could lead to some difficult decisions for coach James Borrego, but Ball has clearly earned his minutes (33.9 MPG since entering the starting five), and nothing he's doing feels all that unsustainable. His three-point efficiency could be due for some regression, but over his final 15 games before the break, Ball posted averages of 20.7 points, 6.7 assists, 6.2 rebounds and 1.9 steals, while holding a 46-45-85 shooting line. - Nick Whalen
Christian Wood will be a better Fantasy player than Anthony Davis
An ankle injury has kept Wood sidelined since Feb. 6, and he's played in just 17 games. Davis has appeared in 23 games, missing the past nine due to calf and Achilles issues. It's not precisely clear when either will return, but it seems likely Wood will be back before Davis, whose earliest expected return is March 19.
The Lakers will be taking Davis' Achilles tendonosis seriously because the primary concern is having Davis healthy for the playoffs. It would be surprising if he played in any of the team's upcoming back-to-backs, and the occasional rest day aside from that should be expected. When he was on the court, he was having a down season. He's ranked 22nd in eight-category Fantasy leagues on a per-game basis behind averages of 22.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.4 steals. That was in 32.8 minutes per game. If that mark is an over/under for the number of minutes Davis will average when he returns, I'd take the under.
The Rockets haven't won a game since Wood suffered the ankle injury, with the team dropping 13 in a row. Houston won't bring Wood back before he's ready, but there's no reason for the organization to save him for the playoffs since the Rockets are 11-23. Surprisingly, he's ranked just one spot behind Davis in Fantasy while averaging 22.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 assists. Moving forward, I expect Wood to play more games, average more minutes and be the bigger focal point of his team than Davis. If I had to choose one for the remainder of the season, it's Wood. - Alex Barutha
Zion Williamson averages 30 points per game the rest of the way
While the Pelicans continue to be impossible to read, Williamson has been extremely consistent over the last month-plus. In his final 12 games before the break, he averaged 29.3 points per game, adding 7.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists while getting to the line nearly 10 times per game. During that span, he never dipped below 23 points in any game.
He's also leaving fewer points on the board at the line, hitting 73 percent of his free throws after getting off to a rough start. A fully unleashed Williamson is the most efficient and unstoppable paint scorer in the league, and while Brandon Ingram may technically be the Pels' No. 1 option, Williamson continues to gradually work his way toward capturing that title. Bonus prediction: Williamson has his first career 40-point game before the end of March. - Nick Whalen
Jarrett Allen finishes as a more valuable fantasy player than John Collins and DeAndre Ayton
Even before the trade to Cleveland, Allen was well on pace to smash his preseason ADP (107), and the increased opportunity with the Cavs has only accelerated his rise. Over his last 11 games before the break, Allen posted 17.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.6 blocks with nine double-doubles. In eight-category leagues, he currently ranks 40th overall -- six spots ahead of Ayton (46) and two behind Collins (38).
While the eventual returns of Larry Nance Jr. and Kevin Love could crowd the Cavs' frontcourt, developing Allen should remain a priority. Meanwhile, Collins has been the subject of trade rumors, while Ayton seems to have stagnated -- particularly as a scorer -- in Year 3. All three will likely finish within the same range, but coming out of the break, I like Allen's upside and consistency more than the two players with preseason ADPs inside the top 25. - Nick Whalen
LaMelo Ball will be a permanent starter
Injuries to both Terry Rozier and Devonte' Graham forced Ball into the starting lineup on Feb. 1. What has resulted is Ball practically locking up the Rookie of the Year award. As a starter, Ball has averaged 20.7 points on 15.9 shots, 6.7 assists, 6.2 rebounds and 1.9 steals in 34.0 minutes. On a per-game basis, that's resulted in him being the 12th-best Fantasy player in eight-category leagues.
Fantasy success doesn't always translate to meaningful real-world production or an increase in role -- just ask Hassan Whiteside. But in Ball's case, the impact seems legitimate. Charlotte has had a positive point differential when he's on the court since Feb. 1, and secured impressive wins over good teams like Miami, Golden State, Phoenix. It feels like both Ball and the team have too much momentum to risk taking him out of the starting five once Graham returns from knee soreness. - Alex Barutha
Ja Morant is a top-50 player the rest of the way
Morant simply hasn't looked the same since returning from an ankle injury in mid-January. Over his first 19 games back, he shot just 42.7 percent from the field, including a horrific 20.0 percent from three on 3.4 attempts per game. His scoring, assists and steals averages remained solid, but Morant was clearly struggling to find confidence as a shooter, at one point finishing with less than 20 points in nine consecutive games.
Just before the break, however, Morant went for 35 points in back-to-back games, taking 43 shots, 16 threes and 25 free throws in 72 total minutes. While it's only a two-game sample, Morant looked much more like his ultra-aggressive self. Through the first half, Morant ranked 86th in per-game value, but as he moves further away from the ankle injury, I like his chances to play at a level closer to his Yahoo ADP (30). - Nick Whalen
Joe Harris makes a run at the all-time 3PT% record
Coming out of the break, Harris is leading the league at 50.6 percent from three. He'll have his work cut out for him, but Kyle Korver's NBA-record 53.6 percent mark, which has stood since 2009-10, will be within reach. Harris has been remarkably consistent throughout the first half, but he closed on a hot streak, hitting 55 percent of his looks over his final seven games. With Kevin Durant set to return to the fold within the next week or two, Harris should be served up even more wide open looks going forward. - Nick Whalen
Draymond Green will be a top-30 player
Green started the season slowly after missing most of training camp, plus the first four games of the season due to a foot injury. Through his first 17 appearances, the veteran averaged just 4.6 points on 33.3 percent shooting, 6.6 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals in 27.2 minutes. He was struggling, and it was reasonable to wonder if age had caught up with him.
However, Green turned a corner in early February. Over the past 14 games, he's averaged 7.0 points on 45.2 percent shooting, 11.0 assists, 7.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks in 32.5 minutes. During this stretch, he's ranked as the 27th-best Fantasy player in per-game value.
The Warriors are making a playoff push and are currently in the nine seed at 19-18. Green has been a major part of the team's success, and the All-Star break has likely helped him get fresher. Look for him to continue playing at a high level and driving wins for the Warriors. - Alex Barutha
Nikola Jokic goes wire-to-wire as the top-ranked fantasy player
Jokic came out firing with 29 points, 15 rebounds, 14 assists and two blocks on opening night and hasn't looked back. He's been the top-ranked fantasy player in eight- and nine-category leagues for the entirety of the first half, and he's played in all 36 of Denver's games. In nine-cat leagues, the gap between Jokic and the No. 2-ranked player, Stephen Curry, is roughly the same as the gap between Curry and the No. 12-ranked player, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
There's a chance Jokic could be due for some regression as a three-point shooter (41.8% 3Pt, up from 31.4% last season), but outside of that there's no reason to believe the big man will slow down anytime soon. - Nick Whalen
Two rookies finish inside the top-30 in total value
LaMelo Ball (22nd in 8-cat) is already on course for one of the best rookie fantasy seasons in recent memory, so this will likely come down to how well Tyrese Haliburton plays over the next 68 days. The Iowa State product has been overshadowed by Ball, but he's putting together a well-rounded, hyper-efficient season, averaging 13.2 points, 5.4 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 2.4 threes, 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks, while holding a 49-43-83 shooting line.
For a first-year player, Haliburton's lack of a true weakness is impressive. Some have been waiting for his outside shooting to normalize, but it simply hasn't happened. In fact, he shot the three better in February (45%) than he did in December and January (41.7%).
At this point, the biggest question is whether he'll be able to hold up over the course of 72 games after a calf injury kept him out of the final four contests before the break. If Haliburton is able to stay healthy, there's no reason to believe he can't push for mid-third-round value. - Nick Whalen
Isaiah Roby will become a must-roster player after the Thunder trade (or phase out) Al Horford
This prediction is bolder than the rest because it requires a player to be traded or have their role significantly reduced. But it's no secret the Thunder are trying to tank the season, and Horford has been helping them win too many games. OKC is 15-21, tied with New Orleans for the 11th seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder would much prefer to join the Houston/Minnesota tier of bad to secure a better draft pick.
Horford's contract won't be easy to move. He essentially makes $27 million this season, next season and the year after that. But he's been good enough for competing teams to at least have to consider acquiring him. In 28.2 minutes per game, Horford has averaged 14.0 points on 13.0 shots, 6.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists.
Even if Horford doesn't get dealt, there's a chance the Thunder send him home, rest him for more games, or phase him out of the rotation. If any of those scenarios come to fruition, Isaiah Roby would step up as the Thunder's starting center. He's started 12 games and averaged 11.7 points on 8.8 shots, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals in 27.5 minutes. During a six-game stretch in January during which Roby started every game, he ranked as the 117th-ranked player in Fantasy on a per-game basis. That's not an eye-popping number, but it suggests he'll need to be rostered if the team moves on from Horford. - Alex Barutha
The Celtics (finally) unleash Robert Williams
Given how the Celtics have handled Williams so far, we need to be careful with how we define "unleash." In this instance, it may only mean he averages 25 minutes per game, but based on his per-minute numbers, that would be enough to significantly boost his fantasy value. Despite averaging just 16.1 minutes per game thus far, Williams is a borderline-top-100 fantasy player, thanks in large part to his outsized block and steal rates, field goal percentage and volume rebounding.
Sure, Williams still has moments when it looks like he's never played basketball in his life, but those instances are becoming less frequent as he gains more experience. With Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson on the roster, there's only so much Brad Stevens can do, but Boston is in desperate need of any sort of spark, and Williams is the guy who could provide it. In the eight games in which he's played at least 20 minutes this season, Williams is averaging 10.3 points (79.5% FG), 9.5 boards, 2.1 assists, 2.5 blocks and 1.5 steals. - Nick Whalen
Blake Griffin remains a nonfactor
Allow me to preface this by saying I've always been a pro-Blake guy. But at this point the name Blake Griffin carries infinitely more weight than his on-court presence. I'm willing to entertain the notion that going from the bleakest roster in the league to the most-talented could reinvigorate the veteran, but the concerns with Griffin have never been about his mindset or motivation.
A series of lower-body injuries have sapped his athleticism and limited him to just 38 games since the start of last season. While he'll no longer be tasked with functioning as an offensive hub, playing alongside three future-Hall-of-Famers won't do anything to help his soon-to-be-32-year-old knees. I fully expect Griffin to have some moments when he looks like the Blake of old -- and there will be nights when he emerges as a DFS gem -- but he's simply too unreliable, from a medical standpoint, to warrant a valuable roster spot over the second half of the season. - Nick Whalen
