This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We're going off the beaten path on Tuesday's college hoops slate as we break down a pair of Mountain West matchups. We also have a premier Big 12 matchup that you don't want to miss.
BYU 
at Baylor
BYU and Baylor enter Tuesday with identical 12-2 records, and they're close to even in overall efficiency, however, there's one gigantic difference between the two. Defense.
Both of these teams are among the best at scoring in the nation, ranking in the top 20 in offensive efficiency, although they are extremely far apart when looking at the other end of the court. The Cougars are as stingy as it gets, ranking sixth in defensive efficiency while posting elite numbers in several other categories, specifically defensive rebounding rate and three-point field goal percentage. BYU is collecting defensive boards at the fourth-highest rate among all D1 teams and is holding opponents to 26 percent on shots from behind the arc, the fifth-lowest percentage allowed. As fate would have it, these two strengths make the Cougars perfectly suited to counter what the Bears do best. Baylor has the 14th-highest offensive rebounding percentage while making 45 percent of three-point attempts, the highest percentage in the country, two exceptional skills that can be neutralized by BYU's exceptional defense.
Going in the other direction, Baylor's defense isn't nearly as well-equipped, ranking 70th in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to make over 50 percent of two-point shots. The latter is a major problem when going against BYU because the Cougars are making over 59 percent of shots inside the arc, the ninth-highest percentage.
It's always tough to bet against Baylor at home, but it's hard to ignore BYU's glaring matchup advantages. For these reasons, I'm taking the points with the Cougars in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU +2.5
Colorado State 
at Boise State 
The Rams are coming off a five-point loss at Utah State, but with how the Aggies are playing this season, now at 14-1, there's no shame in the close loss. Colorado State has already proven its intent on making the NCAA tournament, having already defeated potential tournament teams in Creighton, Colorado, and Washington in three straight games back in November. The key for the Rams is their potent offensive attack, ranking 12th in efficiency and sixth in effective field goal percentage. As long as they keep scoring at their current rate, this team has a shot at making a run in March.
Boise State, meanwhile, hasn't been nearly as effective at scoring points, ranking 96th in offensive efficiency and ranking average in most shooting categories as well. The Broncos are better on defense, but even that hasn't been as stout as in years past, allowing over 80 points to both Clemson and Virginia Tech in two of their losses earlier in the year. This is worth noting as Colorado State has the highest offensive efficiency rating among all the teams on Boise State's schedule, so the Broncos will need to step up if they want to defend home court. This will be a huge challenge, as Colorado State does most of its damage on the inside, making over 60 percent of shots inside the arc, the sixth-highest percentage among all D1 teams, while Boise State allowed opponents to make almost 51 percent of two-point attempts, falling below the average D1 mark.
Overall, when it comes to scoring points, these two teams are not remotely close to being on the same level. It's always possible that Colorado State's defense allows Boise State to stay in the game, but ultimately I'm betting that the significantly better offensive team will rise to the top when it's all said and done. I'm laying the points with the Rams in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -1.5
New Mexico 
at UNLV 
Now in his third year coaching New Mexico, Richard Pitino has the team playing in top form. The Lobos have won 13 of 15 games with its only two losses coming at Saint Mary's and at Colorado State, two potential NCAA tournament teams. They rank well above average in many categories on both sides of the court, making them a well-rounded team.
UNLV in contrast, has lost six of 11 games against D1 teams, including losses to Loyola Marymount, Richmond, Florida State, and a home loss to Southern. Despite the rough resume, the Runnin' Rebels also managed to defeat Creighton by 15 points in early December, which is a noteworthy accomplishment, but it's also proving to be the exception to the rest of the season. Outside of that one game, this team has not played well.
When stacking these teams against each other, New Mexico has many key categories in its favor. First, it has a substantial rebounding advantage, recording offensive and defensive rebounding rates that rank in the top 90 of the country, while UNLV is one of the worst rebounding teams, ranking 265th in offense and 334th in defense. It's hard to fathom UNLV winning the rebounding battle based on these numbers. Second, the Lobos rank higher than UNLV in both offensive and defensive turnover percentages, another column New Mexico should win. And third, the Lobos are better at drawing contact, ranking 97th in offensive free-throw attempt rate compared to 337th for UNLV in the same category.
Looking at the bottom line, New Mexico is simply the better team with an edge in several key areas. Given a short spread, I'm laying the points with the Lobos in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico -2.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- BYU +2.5
- Colorado State -1.5
- New Mexico -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
ESPN BET is officially live as of November 2023. Sign up with the ESPN BET promo code ROTO for $250 in bonus bets!
