This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Riding a hot streak, submitting profitable picks in each of my past five days, here are my selections for today's limited offering.
Arkansas State at 
Louisville
The Red Wolves have not started the season well, barely winning three of 10 games. It's worth pointing out that many matchups were lopsided, with some losses coming on the road at Wisconsin, Iowa and Alabama. And they did win their last game, an 87-68 victory over UAB, a team that has a higher overall efficiency rating than Arkansas State's opponent on Tuesday.
Louisville, in contrast, has a marginally better record at 4-5, but ultimately this team doesn't appear to be significantly better than last year's that finished 4-28. This year's Cardinals squad is currently ranked at No. 176 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and many of their results don't give any indication that they're on an upward trajectory. Without tediously going through the Cardinals' schedule, I will simply point out that Louisville survived at home by one point to UMBC (#325 in efficiency), survived at home in overtime against New Mexico State (#269 in efficiency), and then most recently lost by seven points at DePaul (#203 in efficiency).
When comparing these teams side-by-side, we don't have many discrepancies. Both teams are below-average in many statistical categories across the board, further underscoring the notion that these two teams aren't too far apart in skill. One noticeably different area, however, is three-point shooting. Arkansas State has several players that can score from behind the arc, making 34 percent as a team. This number is important because the Red Wolves shoot three-pointers at the 39th-highest rate in the nation, yielding the 24th-highest percentage of points off three-point shots. Louisville, on the other hand, is at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Cardinals are making 28 percent of shots from behind the arc and rank 337th in percentage of points off three-point shots.
Overall, when looking at the numbers, this matchup is close to even. Home court hasn't mattered much for Louisville recently, and with everything else being close to equal, I'd much rather take the points with the substantially better three-point shooting team. I'm going with Arkansas State in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas State +4
Utah State at 
Santa Clara
Utah State is on a roll, riding an eight-game win streak entering Wednesday. The Aggies have been a formidable team in recent years, although this season marks the first under new head coach Danny Sprinkle, the team's third different head coach in four seasons. Utah State has solid scoring numbers and looks good in efficiency, although they've also only played two true road games, losing the first one to Bradley in overtime, 72-66, and winning the second at Saint Louis, 81-76.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, started the season at 6-0 following an impressive win against Oregon, although it has since lost to Ohio State, California and New Mexico. Two of the losses came against quality teams, so the Broncos still appear to be a feisty team despite the recent results. Either way, Santa Clara has shown it's capable of putting up a ton of points on any given night. And based on its matchup for Wednesday, I believe this will be one of those nights.
Looking at how these two teams stack up against each other, this is a bad matchup for Utah State. The Aggies, though efficient, rarely make three-pointers. Utah State is making under 30 percent from behind the arc while seldom attempting them, giving them the 19th-lowest percentage of points off three-pointers among all 362 D1 teams. This is fine against teams that aren't strong in the paint, but Santa Clara's biggest strength lies in its size. The Broncos rank fifth in the nation in average height, per KenPom, and their very high rebounding percentages on both ends of the court further back this up. Santa Clara is holding opponents to 47 percent on two-point shots, the 92nd-lowest percentage, so Utah State will certainly have its work cut out for it.
All in all, based on the matchup and playing style of each team, I'm taking the points and backing the home team in this one. I'm also taking the over due to Santa Clara frequently pushing an extremely fast pace. The Broncos are playing at the 21st-fastest tempo on offense, and it's consistently causing high-scoring games. Santa Clara's opponents have scored at least 80 points in each of its last four games against D1 teams, and while I'm trusting that Santa Clara will top whatever number that Utah State lands at, this leads me to believe that we'll once again have a high-scoring affair.
College Basketball Best Bet: Santa Clara +3.5 and Over 152
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Arkansas State +4
- Santa Clara +3.5
- Utah State at Santa Clara - Over 152
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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