Bowl Season: Confidence Picks

Unfortunately, I can't get Microsoft Word to let me number from 40 backward to 1, so instead I must list my confidence picks with the No. 1 team correlating to 40 points, and No. 40 team correlating to one point. I would assign 40 points to Alabama, in other words, and one point to Ohio.

Also note, the spreads are listed for reference purposes only -- these confidence picks are straight up.

Feel free to ask questions in the comments.

For those playing in bowl-season fantasy games, check out our weekly rankings page for in-depth positional rankings.

Thanks for reading!

1. Alabama (-15) over Washington (Peach Bowl, Dec. 31)

I don't think any team's chances of beating Alabama are significantly higher than non-zero, and Washington is only about the fifth-best team to me. John Ross and Dante Pettis just might be able to slip past Alabama's brutally physical coverage, but I think quarterback Jake Browning's struggles against Colorado make clear that this is generally the set up for a trainwreck.

2. Colorado State (-13.5) over Idaho (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Dec. 22)

Idaho made it to bowl season while scoring fewer points per game than they allowed. Colorado State had a truly bizarre start to the season where they looked awful, but by the season's second months everything was somehow solved. Idaho does nothing well, whereas Colorado State's offense was humming both through the air and on the ground for about the last two months.

3. South Florida (-10.5) over South Carolina (Birmingham Bowl, Dec. 29)

I think South Carolina will be able to put up about four touchdowns on South Florida, but I think the South Carolina defense might allow 40-plus points here. Even without Willie Taggart on the sideline, the South Florida offense should prove too polished of a product for a bad South Carolina run defense to hold its own.

4. Mississippi State (-13) over Miami (OH) (St. Petersburg Bowl, Dec. 26)

Miami of Ohio is actually a promising program that's clearly on the rise, but the athleticism gap between these teams is still enormous. The RedHawks proved dangerous in the MAC by playing down-tempo, but such an approach requires a bit of luck and entails a small margin of error. The Mississippi State running game should prove unstoppable between Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams, and the wideout duo of Fred Ross and Donald Gray is dangerous, too.

5. Louisiana Tech (-4.5) over Navy (Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 23)

Navy is down to its third-string QB and has had a bad defense all year. I just don't see how the Midshipmen could match the sprinter's pace set by a Louisiana Tech offense that features one of the nation's elite passing games.

6. Tulsa (-12.5) over Central Michigan (Miami Beach Bowl, Dec. 19)

Central Michigan started hot by beating Oklahoma State, but the Chippewas had a puzzling collapse after the season's first month. Against a Tulsa team loaded with offensive firepower and a surprisingly good defense, I don't see how Central Michigan can keep up.

7. Middle Tennessee (off) over Hawaii (Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24)

Regardless of whether Brent Stockstill (collarbone) plays, I think Hawaii gets buried in this one. Hawaii allowed 3,169 yards (5.3 YPC) and 30 touchdowns on the ground this year in 13 games – that is a crippling weakness that can't be hidden, and Middle Tennessee running back I'Tavius Mathers is almost certain to run wild.

8. Air Force (-13) over South Alabama (Arizona Bowl, Dec. 30)

Freshman quarterback Arion Worthman has made Air Force a completely different team since taking over as starter, and it's hard to see a sluggish South Alabama offense score at a sufficient pace against a competent Air Force defense.

9. Temple (-13) over Wake Forest (Military Bowl, Dec. 27)

Wake Forest's good defense makes me a bit nervous here, but Temple's defense is as good or better, and the Owls offense is vastly superior.

10. Wisconsin (-7.5) over Western Michigan (Cotton Bowl, Jan. 2)

I expect Corey Davis to get loose a couple times on about 15 targets, but I think quarterback Zach Terrell will struggle, and I can't see the Western Michigan running game doing better than about 3.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Corey Clement should rip out chunks of yardage consistently against a Broncos defense that allowed 4.7 yards per carry.

11. Washington State (-9) over Minnesota (Holiday Bowl, Dec. 27)

I was initially worried about Washington State here, but Minnesota suspended three of its top defensive backs, which is obviously not how you want to prepare for Washington State.

12. Utah (-7.5) over Indiana (Foster Farms Bowl, Dec. 28)

Utah QB Troy Williams is below average and his matchup with a competent Indiana defense gives me some concern, but then I remember that 16-interception quarterback Richard Lagow will have to face Utah's strong defense for Indiana. Also, I'd take Joe Williams over Devine Redding any day.

13. Michigan (-7) over Florida State (Orange Bowl, Dec. 30)

Aside from its perplexing collapse against Louisville, Florida State was quite impressive this year, but this just looks like a bad matchup for them. Their lethal pass rush might not amount to much against a Michigan offense that allowed 18 sacks in 12 games, and the Seminoles run defense proved a liability at several points this year. Teams with strong running games can move the ball against Florida State, and Michigan certainly has that going for itself. I'm not so convinced the Seminoles offense can get over 20 points against the Michigan defense, on the other hand.

14. USC (-6.5) over Penn State (Rose Bowl, Jan. 2)

I have a lot of faith in USC quarterback Sam Darnold, and I think a rested Juju Smith-Schuster shows some surprising punch in his last demonstration for NFL scouts. Saquon Barkley is a beast who can and will carry the Penn State offense, but I'm just not convinced Penn State can score as quickly as USC.

15. Virginia Tech (-7) over Arkansas (Belk Bowl, Dec. 29)

More than almost any other team, Arkansas poses a wild card element in any given game, so that makes me uneasy. But the Arkansas run defense was comically bad in 2016, and I think that Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente will find ways for the Hokies offense to move the ball with ease. Arkansas has two good running backs and four good wideouts, but the strength of the Hokies defense should dictate that the Razorbacks lose their competitive grip as the game progresses.

16. Florida (-2.5) over Iowa (Outback Bowl, Jan. 2)

From my view, even with pitiful quarterback play, Florida just doesn't seem vulnerable here. Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard hasn't been much better than the rotational atrocity Florida has trotted out, and the Florida defense is from a different plane than Iowa's. In a game where neither team can throw, Florida's size/speed/strength advantage should manifest in the form of an exhausted Iowa squad in the second half.

17. Boise State (-7.5) over Baylor (Cactus Bowl, Dec. 27)

Boise stumbled in the second half of this year, but Baylor completely collapsed, losing six straight games. With a lame duck coach and an overwhelming stench of failure abound, Baylor stands for nothing and has nothing to defend. So long as Boise QB Brett Rypien avoids turnovers, Jeremy McNichols will carry Boise to victory.

18. BYU (-8.5) over Wyoming (Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 21)

Great as their season was, the Cowboys' run defense remains a major liability, which could prove catastrophic against a well-rested Jamaal Williams. The BYU defense is above average, meanwhile, and I think that will prevent Wyoming running back Brian Hill from going punch-for-punch with Williams.

19. Western Kentucky (-5) over Memphis (Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 20)

Memphis' pass defense gives me some pause here – they intercepted 15 passes while allowing just 6.3 YPA this year – but a glance at their game log shows that the Tigers only faced a few competent passers. One of those competent passers, Houston's Greg Ward, slapped Memphis for 487 yards and four touchdowns in the regular season finale. The Memphis run defense, meanwhile, has been bad this year, which isn't what you want to hear when Anthony Wales is up next.

20. Stanford (-3.5) over North Carolina (Sun Bowl, Dec. 30)

Stanford is absurdly one-dimensional given that its offense has almost nothing to offer other than Christian McCaffrey, but this is the perfect matchup for the Cardinal offense. North Carolina allowed 4.6 yards per carry and 235.5 yards per game on the ground this year. Meanwhile, Larry Fedora's long history of ignoring Elijah Hood gives me reason to think he'll put quarterback Mitch Trubisky in an unfavorable setting.

21. Texas A&M (-2) over Kansas State (Texas Bowl, Dec. 28)

Texas A&M is more vulnerable on the ground than against the pass, which is certainly a point in Kansas State's favor. Throw in the fact that Kansas State's defense is quite competent, and this is a dangerous setting for A&M. But there's still reason to believe A&M has a major advantage in terms of size and speed, and for all his ups and downs in recent years, Kevin Sumlin remains a fine tactition, I think. The wideout tandem of Christian Kirk and Josh Reynolds is what specifically makes me think A&M summons more firepower in this one.

22. Army (-10) over North Texas (Heart of Dallas Bowl, Dec. 27)

This pick feels extremely weird given that North Texas already beat Army 35-18 on Oct. 22, but North Texas will likely be without its starting quarterback, and the fact that Army's defense has otherwise been competent implies that game may have simply been an off day for the Knights. Vegas certainly seems to think so, anyway.

23. Old Dominion (-4) over Eastern Michigan (Bahamas Bowl, Dec. 23)

Old Dominion has the advantage, I think, because their defense gives up fewer points than Eastern Michigan's. Eastern Michigan is well coached and has a few under-the-radar playmakers on offense, but Old Dominion has a pretty loaded offense of its own, highlighted by the elite running back Ray Lawry.

24. Houston (-3.5) over San Diego State (Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 17)

San Diego State's run defense has been killer all year, but the pass defense showed major cracks in the last month of the season, and I therefore think Greg Ward will be able to throw the ball in this one. San Diego State's offense, meanwhile, is almost entirely dependent on the run, but Houston's run defense is allowing just about 98 yards per game.

25. Colorado (-3) over Oklahoma State (Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29)

Colorado's offense is probably of a similar grade as Oklahoma State's, but Colorado's defense is far superior. Still, the firepower of the Cowboys' offense makes it a close call for me.

26. Georgia Tech (-3.5) over Kentucky (TaxSlayer Bowl, Dec. 31)

Kentucky has a lot of firepower in its own backfield between Stanley Williams and Benny Snell, but the fact that the Wildcats defense allowed 5.1 yards per carry this year means they're likely vulnerable against Georgia Tech's option offense. Since the Georgia Tech defense generally proved competent against the pass this year, I struggle to see how Kentucky otherwise establishes an advantage here.

27. Pittsburgh (-5.5) over Northwestern (Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 28)

Pittsburgh has had a tendency to get into shootouts this year, but in a matchup like this they should be able to set the pace. The Panthers have a few viable options on offense between James Conner, Jester Weah and Quadree Henderson, but Northwestern is easier to scheme against since Justin Jackson and Austin Carr are the only notable skill position contributors. While Pittsburgh should be able to run effectively with Conner, Northwestern might not run as well against a superior Pittsburgh rush defense, which could result in more pressure than quarterback Clayton Thorson is built to play through.

28. Miami of Florida (-3) over West Virginia (Athletic Bowl, Dec. 28)

Both of these teams have good defenses, but West Virginia's seems more vulnerable on the ground than Miami's, and that's bad news when you have a quarterback as inaccurate as Skyler Howard. While he's a good college quarterback, I think a setting like this could amplify Howard's flaws to the point that he becomes a major liability.

29. Tennessee (-3) over Nebraska (Music City Bowl, Dec. 30)

Who knows what to make of Tennessee, a team that almost always played below its talent level. The second half of the season was especially embarrassing for the Volunteers, yet they're three-point favorites here. I generally think Tennessee should take it because I find their offense vastly better than Nebraska's, yet Tennessee has lost to lesser teams in recent weeks. I'm making this pick banking on the idea, for no reason but faith, that Josh Dobbs and Alvin Kamara carry the Volunteers in a fairly high-scoring matchup.

30. Clemson (+3.5) over Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl, Dec. 31)

The Ohio State offense fell off in the final month of the year, and its defense generally only looked dominant against offenses average or worse. Clemson is no such offense, and I think it's safe to say at this point that the Clemson offense profoundly transforms in high-stakes situations like this, specifically because Tigers begin aggressively calling run plays for Deshaun Watson, giving defenses looks that only sparingly showed on film prior to the game in question.

31. Auburn (+3.5) over Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl, Jan. 2)

Between the looming Joe Mixon video distraction and the already developing distraction of Dede Westbrook's history, there's reason to believe Oklahoma won't have its full focus for this matchup. I think it's a bad one for them anyway – Auburn is extremely difficult to run on, and the fact that Westbrook is the only featured pass-catching playmaker in the Sooner offense means they can become very linear on offense if the running game stalls. The Oklahoma run defense showed a lot of cracks in the last month, meanwhile, so I think Kam Pettway and Kerryon Johnson should consistently chop away chunks of yardage from start to finish.

32. LSU (-3.5) over Louisville (Citrus Bowl, Dec. 31)

Lamar Jackson can single-handedly win almost any game, but I think LSU is a bad matchup for a Louisville squad that saw its defense fall apart in the last two weeks. Given the 77 combined points allowed to Houston and Kentucky over that span, there's not much reason to think the Cardinals will be able to contain the LSU running game, regardless of whether Leonard Fournette will join Derrius Guice. The LSU defense, meanwhile, should be able to force a couple turnovers.

33. North Carolina State (-4.5) over Vanderbilt (Independence Bowl, Dec. 26)

Vanderbilt finished the season strong, going 4-2 in the second half while beating teams like Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee. At a glance, North Carolina State stumbled to the end with a 2-5 finish, but that was against a schedule featuring Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, Miami (FL) and North Carolina. Safe to say, Vanderbilt is a step below such competition. Vanderbilt's offense is liable to stall if it can't run, and North Carolina State is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry this year.

34. UCF (-5.5) over Arkansas State (Cure Bowl, Dec. 17)

This is a weird matchup because both UCF and Arkansas State are uptempo squads with bad offenses and good defenses. Arkansas State's offense shows more signs of life in its box scores, but UCF played a much tougher schedule in the AAC and showed the ability to hang with squads like Houston and Temple. Arkansas State hasn't shown similar upside.

35. Toledo (-1.5) over Appalachian State (Camellia Bowl, Dec. 17)

Appalachian State has better defensive stats than Toledo, but I think a greater distinction can be made between the firepower of the respective offenses. Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside threw 43 touchdown passes in 12 games this year, and the running back tandem of Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson is among the nation's best. Marcus Cox and Jalin Moore may be an even better tandem for Appalachian State, but quarterback Taylor Lamb is far below the level of Woodside.

36. Georgia (-1) over TCU (Liberty Bowl, Dec. 30)

I expect neither team to prove capable of throwing the ball in this game, which leads me to lean toward the side with the better running game. Good as Kyle Hicks might be, the combination of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel is more intimidating.

37. Maryland (-1) over Boston College (Quick Lane Bowl, Dec. 26)

I refuse to talk about this game.

38. Southern Mississippi (-4.5) over Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 17)

This is a sluggish matchup with two uninteresting teams, but I think Southern Miss has the upper hand due to vastly superior quarterback play.

39. UTSA (+7) over New Mexico (New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 17)

New Mexico's dominant option offense and consequent ability to dictate time of possession give it the ability to control a game even with the most trivial of leads, but the Lobos' defense has been quite weak this year, and I'm not convinced they'll strike first here. The Lobos have allowed 51 touchdowns from scrimmage, showing equal vulnerability to the run and pass, whereas UTSA has allowed only 40 touchdowns from scrimmage.

40. Ohio (+4) over Troy (Dollar General Bowl, Dec. 23)

Troy is probably the more talented team, but Ohio coach Frank Solich has a long history of proving dangerous in situations like this. The spread is only Troy (-4) to begin with, and Solich has a tendency to make games closer than expected. I'm not convinced the Troy offense will function without a sound running game, but the Ohio run defense has been uniquely good this year.