College Football DFS: Night Slate, Week 12

The FanDuel and DraftKings night slates curry the exact same lineup of games, making our jobs a lot easier as we drill down to find the best picks for DFS consumption.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Auburn (-7.5) @ South Carolina O/U: 45

California (-2) @ Stanford O/U: 45

Tennessee (-27.5) vs. South Alabama O/U: 62

Mississippi (-34.5) vs. Vanderbilt O/U: 65.5

Utah (-3) vs. Oregon O/U: 59

Miami (-7.5) vs. Virginia Tech O/U: 56

Oklahoma State (-9.5) @ Texas Tech O/U: 56.5

Utah State (-5.5) vs. Wyoming O/U: 52.5

There's a lot of value on this slate, and sometimes leaving some cash on the table and holding on to all the value you can find is a sound approach, especially in tournaments. However, it is essential to remember that with few exceptions, elite players are popular and expensive for a reason. It's usually best to use value picks in the way they are intended, as an allowance to make room for those players.

WEATHER

There are no significant weather concerns for the games on this slate.

QUARTERBACK

While Matt Corral sits atop this slate, the blowout probability, as well as his elevated price for both sites, will slide him into the 'no' column today. I don't doubt a good result from Corral, but we can get close to his potential output at lower salaries without sacrificing the cash needed to acquire him.

Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) @ Texas Tech

The Red Raiders have gone all-in with a defense geared toward stopping opposing rushing attacks, and that's left Texas Tech vulnerable to a good outing from a standout signal-caller. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they are all about the ground game, so it will be up to Sanders to rise to the occasion. Luckily, Sanders has been on a nice run of production recently, with eight touchdowns and only one interception over his past four games. You can also depend on him finding a way out of trouble when the pocket closes, as he's an extreme dual-threat with 369 rushing and four rushing touchdowns to his credit, 

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (DK $6,700, FD $11,000) vs. South Alabama

It almost looks like someone at DraftKings forgot about Hooker and then slotted him in somewhere. He's wildly underpriced on the site but too expensive on FanDuel, so Hooker will be an excellent DraftKings budget quarterback. Hooker had as much success as any quarterback can have against Georgia, and the week before, he torched Kentucky with four passing touchdowns in a fast-paced shootout. Although the Vols are massive favorites, South Alabama could gain some traction against a Volunteer defense with its share of shortcomings, especially in the secondary. At the reduced DK salary, he has an excellent chance to pay off,

T.J. Finley, Auburn (DK $5,600, FD $7,400) @ South Carolina

Finley is the newly-minted starter for Auburn after Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury. The former LSU quarterback is battle-tested, and he proved his worth as Nix's backup by orchestrating a comeback against Georgia State early in the season. Finley's presence could offer a breath of fresh air into an offense that sometimes seems flat and uninspired, and there's no question about his arm strength. Accuracy was often his issue at LSU, but he's worth the risk at this reduced salary.

Also consider:  Tyler Van Dyke, Miami (FL) (DK $8,100, FD $10,000) vs. Virginia Tech

RUNNING BACK

Travis Dye, Oregon (DK $7,500, FD $8,600) @ Utah

Even though Utah is favored, it's impossible to fade Dye, who has dominated the Pac-12 with a host of superlative performances. The loss of CJ Verdell spurred on Dye's Cinderella moment, and he's made the most of his opportunity with massive totals. Byron Cardwell (DK $4,300, FD $5,500) has been successful as Dye's backup in recent weeks and ate into his output against Washington State last week, but the Ducks will need to bring their best against the Utes. 

Jaylen Warren, Oklahoma State (DK $6,900, FD $9,800) @ Texas Tech

We've already mentioned Texas Tech's dedication to stopping the run, but that doesn't mean that they'll be successful against Warren, who routinely shreds excellent defenses. He dominated against TCU last week with three touchdowns and bested Kansas State's excellent defense for four touchdowns and 123 yards earlier in the season. The Cowboys will employ his services early and often in this matchup.

 TJ Pledger, Utah (DK $5,100, FD $6,000) vs. Oregon

This is an injury-dependent pick. If Tavion Thomas (DK $7,800, FD $8,800) is good to go, he will be the top target in the backfield for the Utes. Pledger may still have some value regardless, as he's reasonably priced and has posted some decent totals even with Thomas in the fold.

Jerrion Ealy, Mississippi (DK $5,500, FD $8,500) vs. Vanderbilt

I'm the first to own up to a mistake. I made the wrong call at running back for the Rebels, but I won't make that mistake again. Ealy has been the centerpiece of the rushing attack for two straight weeks, and I think he will stick around even if the game gets out of hand. I far prefer him to Ole Miss' passing attack because heroics from Corral and company won't be necessary against one of the weakest opponents they've faced. 

Titus Swen, Wyoming (DK $5,000, FD $6,600) @ Utah State

While switching channels frequently last week, I caught a rushing play for the Cowboys and said to myself, "it's a good night for Xazavian Valladay," only to realize that it was Swen who was handling the work. I kept my eye on the game after that and quickly formed the opinion that the sophomore is the better runner on the roster right now. He may not get the same volume as Valladay, but at this reduced salary, he has an excellent chance to make an impact against a Utah State defense that is pretty forgiving against the run. The Cowboys don't have much to play for, and Valladay may be headed to the NFL combine, so they might as well explore Swen further.

WIDE RECEIVER

Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama (DK $7,500, FD $8,500) @ Tennessee

There's no need to explain why utilizing the passing offense of a road underdog can be profitable, and the Jaguars are a prime example of a situation that might pay off. I prefer Desmond Trotter to continue the work under center even if Jake Bentley is free from injury. He's had a long history with the offense and a connection with Tolbert that Bentley doesn't have. I like him even more if Trotter continues to be the signal-caller.

Brennan Presley, Oklahoma State (DK $5,700, FD $6,60000)@ Texas Tech

We'll go back to the well with Oklahoma State, but we'll slide past the more popular Tay Martin and settle for value with Presley, who has remarkably similar totals to Martin over the past couple of weeks. He has the same number of touchdowns as Martin and only trails his teammate by a few receptions and about 200 receiving yards. The salary differential will certainly pay off those differences.

Tayvion Robinson Virginia Tech (DK $5,600, FD $6,100) @ Miami

Unless Tre Turner is in a car halfway between Blacksburg and Miami right now, he won't be playing against the Hurricanes on Sunday. Although it isn't suspected to be COVID-19, Turner is fighting a respiratory illness that will bar him from taking a commercial flight to Miami. Even if they can figure out a workaround to the problem, he'll undoubtedly be compromised. His absence would mean more snaps and touches for Robinson. He's come along over the past month after not doing much in the first few games of the season. The sophomore has gradually become one of Braxton Burmeister's favorite targets.

Also consider: Isaiah Neyor Wyoming (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) @ Utah State, Velus Jones, Tennessee (DK $4,900, FD $7,300) vs. South Alabama, Josh Vann, South Carolina (DK $4,100, FD $6,400) vs, Auburn