College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 13

CHRIS' PICKS

I'm going to withhold comment on what happened last weekend, other than stating I was grinning ear to ear while at my son's soccer tournament as the events, both for him and my column, unfolded. I'm an ACC/SEC homer, and we've got plenty of West Coast action to wrap up the regular season, which obviously makes me nervous. 

Happy Thanksgiving to all, and here's to hoping we have a few winners to keep you awake throughout the long weekend. 

Arkansas (-8) at Missouri (Friday) 

Arkansas has lost four games this year, to Alabama, Auburn, Florida and LSU. To summarize, the Razorbacks have lost to teams they're supposed to lose to and have beaten teams they should handle. They are coming off an impressive 14-point win at Mississippi State and face lowly Missouri, which has only beaten Vanderbilt in conference, with only one conference defeat coming by single digits. And if stats help your pick, Mizzou ranks 118th against the run, allowing 239.1 yards per game and 26 touchdowns through 11 games, playing right into Arkansas' strength, as the Razorbacks have rushed for 200 or more yards in three of their last five. 

Over (68.5) Arizona State at Arizona (Friday) 

This game pits two of the worst scoring defenses nationally, with the Wildcats allowing 38.4 points and the Sun Devils allowing 38.1 points. My math tells me that the averages give me roughly eight points to spare. Offensively, I'm a bit worried, as only ASU has hit those totals once since September, but there isn't a lack of skill or speed on either offense, and I think both teams should go at each other in what will be an entertaining, and incredibly high-scoring affair. 

Navy (-7) at SMU 

Navy has scored in bunches in conference play, and faces a Mustangs defense that has allowed at least 227 yards rushing five times in 11 games, including 278 yards last week. Navy ranks 20th nationally in scoring, putting up 38.4 points per game. I think they'll cruise past that number in this game, which means SMU has to score at least 35 to keep this close. At a certain point, it is simply a matter of Navy being the better team that will win comfortably.  

Old Dominion (-13.5) vs. Florida International 

I'm not sure what needs to happen for the house, or casual readers, to take notice of the Monarchs. They're now 8-3 overall, 6-1 in conference, with their closest conference win coming by 10 points. Last week at FAU, they trailed 14-3 and 21-13 before winning by 18. Meanwhile, the Panthers are in transition as pending coach Butch Davis waits to take over. I expect them to go through the motions in a venue in Norfolk that has quietly become a nice home-field advantage for ODU, where it's won every game this season by at least 14. 

USC (-17.5) vs. Notre Dame 

There may not be a more hot team, outside of Alabama, in the nation than the Trojans, who have won eight straight with only one game decided by single digits. I was actually surprised to see that despite the Irish's 4-7 record, they haven't lost by more than eight points, but that seems destined to change as I'm not sure Notre Dame can force a stop, let alone three or four to keep this game close. No one wants to play USC at this juncture, and a statement victory to close the year is on the horizon. 

Oregon (-3) at Oregon State
 
If you're a trend better, this one is as easy as it comes. You have to go back to 2007 to find the last time Oregon lost at Oregon State. The Ducks have won by at least four points in all but one of the last eight meetings. The Beavers have been feisty at home, losing in conference to Washington State and Utah by a combined nine points while beating California and Arizona. But Ducks' quarterback Justin Herbert appears to be coming into his own, and I think Oregon can build on the momentum that started with last weeks upset win at Utah. 

Under (70.5) UCLA at California 

For all the team's disappointments this season, the Bruins defense has held up admirably. They haven't allowed more than 267 yards passing in any game, a number that came last week against a surging USC squad. That includes holding Washington State, the nation's second-best passing unit, to 261 yards. Further, they've allowed only 10 touchdown passes all season. Only one UCLA game has gone over this number, and while the Bears have been horrible defensively, allowing at least 44 points in six straight games, UCLA has struggled to score all year, topping 24 points just four times. 

Last week: 5-1, Season 16-27-1 

GREG'S PICKS

Not opening week, not conference championship week, not even the first round of the playoff, nope, no slate compares to the Thanksgiving weekend each year. Sure, there are better games, especially during the playoff, but there's something about the games at the end of the season.

This year, we are treated to several meaningful games as well, which just adds to the excitement. In addition to the "meaningful" games, there are the traditional rivalries that are always fun as well as some other interesting matchups.

I, for one, am ready to get moving, so with that in mind, I'm switching up the format a bit this week. I like so many games, that I'm going to pick all the ones I like and reduce the write-up. While this space usually consists of five or six games, this week, we're going double digits.

Quick recap from last week. A winning week at 3-2 overall. Nothing really of note on the wins, but the losses were pretty lopsided. But hey, a win is a win.


Texas A&M (+6.5) vs. LSU (Thursday)



LSU might have tossed in the towel after last week's loss. A&M id looking for some traction without its star QB. I'll take the points at home. 



Over (75) Arkansas at Missouri (Friday)

If you think this looks like a lot of points you are right, but if you've watched Missouri play at all this year, you know that Arkansas might put up 75 on its own. Arkansas has plenty of fire power on offense, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired.


Washington State (+6) vs. Washington (Friday)



Not going to lie, Washington's inability to cover against lowly ASU last week might be influencing this pick. Remember, though, I faded WSU last week, so you know I'm not too high on the Cougars. This is simply a case where I'm taking a decent amount of points at home, in a rivalry game, where the two teams are fairly evenly matched.

Texas Tech (+5) at Baylor (Friday)

Might as well continue to fade Baylor until the Bears turn it around … if they turn it around, that is. Texas Tech is horrible on defense, but offensively, the Red Raiders will have their way.

South Carolina (+24) at Clemson

It's pretty clear that Clemson is only going to really show up when it has to, and in this game, it doesn't have to. Sure, it's a rivalry game and the Tigers should be amped, but that can only take them so far. Expect Clemson to do what it did last week — get ahead early and coast.

Northwestern (-16) vs. Illinois

The Wildcats laid an enormous egg last week at Minnesota, but redemption in the form of bowl eligibility is right around the corner. Northwestern is in Phase 3 of its season, and for a Phase 4, it will need a complete effort this week.

Purdue (+20.5) at Indiana 


Remember all that talk about how much improved Indiana was this year? Well, the Hoosiers are back in a familiar spot this week – needing a win in their final game to become bowl eligible. While I think the Hoosiers will win, probably with ease, I don't think they are equipped to cover this number against a rival.

Penn State (-12.5) vs. Michigan State

Michigan State is just the worst kind of team. The Spartans played well against Michigan and Ohio State, but stunk against every other team. In other words, they play when they want to play. They might be up for the spoiler role this week, but being on the road is all this team needs to lay down.

Over (47.5) Auburn at Alabama

There's simply too much fire power on the field in this game to go under such a low total. If Alabama is rolling on offense, it could reach 40-plus on its own.

Oregon (-3) at Oregon State

Oregon found its pride last week with a win against a good Utah team. Look for the Ducks to continue that roll into this week against bottom-dwelling Oregon State.

Ohio State (-6.5) vs. Michigan

Proof that I've put that putrid showing from Ohio State last week behind me. Michigan didn't exactly set the world on fire last week either; it's entirely possible that both teams were looking ahead. Ohio State appears to be the better team and the home-field advantage should be enough to cover this number.


Last Week: 3-2; Season: 23-27