College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 14

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Updated on December 2, 2016 2:41PM EST

CHRIS' PICKS

Two weeks ago, my 5-1 record looked like a fluke. But after going 5-2 last Saturday, I'm suddenly confident. Mix that with being the last week for this column, and we're looking to go out in style. And big. So for fun and games, I'm going to make a pick in all of the major championship games, and a handful of Big 12 games to boot.

Can't believe the season is wrapping up ... cheers to a happy holiday season for all and that we go into the offseason with a lot of momentum heading toward 2017.

Washington (-7.5) vs. Colorado (Friday)

Colorado's pass defense has been statistically remarkable, ranking 20th nationally by allowing only 187.8 yards per game. But I find those numbers to be heavily skewed by conference matchups against Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, UCLA and Stanford ... teams that either don't throw or have no quarterback, often both. The Buffalos allowed 293 yards to Oregon, 358 to Southern Cal and 325 to Washington State, giving up eight touchdown passes. Washington will send a message to the playoff committee Friday night that it can't be excluded from the top four.

Over (76.5) Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

Short and sweet here ... who will punt? Oklahoma State has scored at least 30 points in all but one game, and Oklahoma has scored 45 or more points seven times, being held to less than 30 by only Ohio State and Houston. I'm kind of surprised this number is

Something hasn't been quite right with the Horned Frogs' offense since they emerged from their bye week Oct. 22. Sure, they scored 62 against Baylor; who hasn't? And they beat Texas handedly last week. But in the three other games against teams playing with a pulse, they've totaled 40 points. They own a narrow win over Kansas and lost to Texas Tech, while Kansas State has beaten every team on its schedule with a worse record, only falling to teams they probably should lose to - Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Stanford. This line looks like nothing more than home-field advantage. I expect the Wildcats to come out with more desire, and they could win straight up.

West Virginia (-17) vs. Baylor

If any team has played with less interest over the final month than Baylor, point it out to me. Maybe Rutgers? The Bears have lost five consecutive, four by at least 19 points, and have allowed at least 42 points in four straight. West Virginia came out with passion last week despite having its Big 12 title hopes dashed the week before, pulling the redshirt off running back Martell Pettaway, who promptly ran for 180 yards and a score at Iowa State, while Skyler Howard tossed five touchdown passes. Look for the Mountaineers to jump out quickly, and for the Bears to wilt and not put up much of a challenge after falling behind.

Under (41) Alabama vs. Florida

The line ('Bama -24) paired with this total just doesn't seem to mesh to me. Vegas essentially is suggesting a similar final score to that of last week's Iron Bowl (30-12). It's an insanely low number for a college game, but similar numbers have bitten both me (against LSU) and my capping partner (last week against Auburn), so I'm going with the low-scoring answer. Only one of 'Bama's last four games has soared past this number, and while I am worried about Florida turning the ball over, and possibly wearing down like it did last week at Florida State, I think the Gators will give a solid effort early in the face of insurmountable odds. The game still pits the nation's Nos. 1 and 5 scoring defenses, which allow a combined 26 points per game. I think 'Bama grinds out a comfortable win, but I'm not sure they'll score enough to send this one over the total, assuming the Gators get minimal, if any, points.

Penn State (+3) vs. Wisconsin

I admittedly don't have a good feel for this game, and while both team's come in red hot (Wisconsin winners of six straight, Penn State winners of eight straight), neither team has faced much competition in the last month. Wisconsin hasn't faced a ranked team since Oct. 29 and the Nittany Lions haven't since upsetting Ohio State on Oct 22. Both teams run well and defend the run equally as well. The difference is under center, and I think Trace McSorley gives Penn State a better chance to make plays with his arm than Wisconsin's duo of Bart Houston and Alex Hornibrook. The under might not be a bad option either, but getting points with the perceived better quarterback sounds good to me.

Clemson (-10) vs. Virginia Tech

I understand the level of competition (South Carolina, Wake Forest, Syracuse), but if you exclude the Tigers' loss to Pittsburgh, they've outscored opponents 145-20. Heck, even include that loss and the 187-63 number is still impressive. I have great respect for Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster, and Virginia Tech will come to play. But Clemson (finally) looks like a motivated team that is ready to play to its capabilities rather than its opponents' skill level. This game could be close, even into the fourth quarter, but I think the Tigers find a way to put this away late for a two-score win.

Last week: 5-2; Season 21-29-1

GREG'S PICKS
 
The final week before bowl season is upon us. The week that will determine the final four in the playoff and … it doesn't look all that exciting.

A few bizarre results in the regular season have left us with a few less than desirable matchups in the conference championship games, but an upset or two this weekend could have a major impact on the final four.

My double-digit experiment last week did not pay off as expected, but I remain undeterred. There aren't enough games go double digits this week, but there are certainly more than a few games that caught my eye.

As for the games last week, the wins were fairly easy with Texas Tech, Purdue and Penn State covering by more than 10 points. Likewise, the losses were pretty bad with Texas A&M, Washington State and Oregon losing by double digits. The close games were Ohio State, which came within one play of covering in OT, and the Alabama over, which was looking good until a three-point fourth-quarter.

Ohio (+19) vs Western Michigan (Friday)  

WMU is clearly the class of the MAC this season, and while many expect it to trounce Ohio because of what's at stake, the fact remains that all WMU needs to do is win. Style points don't matter anymore, the Broncos have done everything they needed to do to this point. Ohio won its division of the MAC and actually beat the second-best team in the MAC West, Toledo. I think the Bobcats can hang.  

 Colorado (+7.5) vs. Washington (Friday)  

Again, a case where the public is fully aware of what is at stake. The difference in this game is that Washington could use some style points. The problem, of course, is that Colorado is no joke. If you were to dissect each of their resumes, you'd have a hard time determining which team is better. Washington's best win was against Stanford. Both teams beat Utah and both beat Washington State and both lost to USC. The reason Colorado has one more loss? The Buffs played real teams in non-conference play and the Huskies didn't.

West Virginia (-17) vs Baylor

Might as well continue to fade Baylor until the Bears turn it around … if they turn it around, that is. OK, I left that line in from last week. I'll keep it there until the Bears prove they are mentally back in it.

Oklahoma State (+11) vs. Oklahoma

This size of this line is entirely based on brand recognition. Oklahoma has it, OSU does not. These are similar teams with Oklahoma having a slight edge on defense. With that in mind, this number seems too high as OSU can keep up with the high-powered Sooners offense.

Over (80) Louisiana Tech vs. Western Kentucky

I tried to find a side to take in this game, but it proved too hard. Both teams have cruised through conference play, and the reason WKU is favored is its recent hot streak. But much of that came against the dregs of Conference USA. When these teams played during the regular season, LT came out on top, 55-52, but believe it or not, WKU's offense has improved since that meeting. There will be no defense in sight at this championship game and 100 points is not out of the question again.

Florida (+24) vs Alabama

Oddly enough, motivation might be tough to find for Alabama this week. Yes, the Tide wants to win the SEC, but let's be honest, what are the chances of an upset this week? The players know they are going to win, their spot in the playoff is locked, there's simply no urgency this week. Florida, on the other hand, is trying to shock the world. The Gators defense will keep this within the number.

Wisconsin (-3) vs. Penn State

Lost in all of this Penn State vs. Ohio State discussion is the fact that Wisconsin still stands in the way of Penn State. Don't think that the players from Wisconsin aren't aware that they've pretty much been tossed aside in the playoff conversation the last couple weeks. Let's not also forget that Wisconsin is probably just a better team than Penn State.

 Last Week: 4-7; Season: 27-34