DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 9

It's already Week 9 of the college football campaign. We've already seen Illinois upset Wisconsin, which also kind of hurts one of the big games this week from an excitement perspective. However, from a DFS perspective, nothing has changed! All the matchups are the same, and the options for your lineup remain plentiful. Here's a look at this week's schedule to try and help you make those important decisions. The numbers are the stats are FBS rankings. All the prices you see are for DraftKings, but the recommendations could help you with your FanDuel contests as well. Let's do this thing!

Cheat Sheet

Mississippi State (+10) at Texas A&M  O/U  50.5, 12:00 PM ET

Mississippi State stats: 64.5 plays per game (98), 371.0 yards per game (89), 28.4 points allowed per game (64), 397.0 yards allowed per game (62)

Texas A&M stats: 70 plays per game (60), 371.3 yards per game (88), 25.0 points allowed per game (45), 359.7 yards allowed per game (38)

These are probably two of the more disappointing offenses in college football. Granted, they have played tough schedules, especially Texas A&M. The Aggies have played Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama. They haven't really played many middle-ground teams, as they have beaten up on Texas State and Lamar for most of their numbers. The Bulldogs' defensive numbers are middling, so this may be a chance to finally see what the Aggies can do when they aren't facing a cupcake or a juggernaut.

Given their competition, I am fairly impressed with Texas A&M's defensive numbers, so I am going to eschew any Mississippi State players. They aren't even averaging 200 yards passing per game anyway. Texas A&M's receiver Jhamon Ausbon ($5,200 DK) only has two touchdowns, but he's clearly the top target in the passing game. He's notched 42 catches for 553 yards.

Prediction: I think this will be kind of a low-scoring, and the Bulldogs will likely struggle particularly offensively. It's not the most-exciting game for fantasy purposes, but Texas A&M's passing game should do enough to get the win. Texas A&M 24, Mississippi State 14

Oklahoma (-23.5) at Kansas State 57.5, 12:00 PM ET

Oklahoma stats: 63.8 plays per game (125), 593.2 yards per game (1), 20.3 points allowed per game (26), 324.2 yards allowed per game (22)

Kansas State stats: 64.6 plays per game (122), 331.8 yards per game (107), 19.6 points allowed per game (16), 362.0 yards allowed per game (41)

These are two offenses that don't run a ton of plays, but for different reasons. The Sooners aren't running a bunch of plays because they are moving up-and-down the field and scoring with gusto. You don't lead the FBS in yards per game if you aren't making chunk plays. The Wildcats, on the other hand, just have a slow, unremarkable offense. Kansas State's defenses numbers are good, but obviously I'm not too worried about Oklahoma's offense.

Interestingly, the Wildcats have only allowed 152.5 passing yards per game, but 195.2 rushing yards per game. So let's dig into that Oklahoma running game! You can still feel free to grab Jalen Hurts ($9,200 DK). Not only is he basically unstoppable, he leads the Sooner with 705 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Unfortunately, after that they have an unclear three-man running back rotation. Who to choose? The cheapest of the three is Trey Sermon ($5,300 DK), and I'm good with him. He has the most carries of the three with 50, and also he has four rushing touchdowns.

Prediction: You know how Oklahoma's offense is going to look. Jalen Hurts is going to keep his Heisman campaign going, and the Sooner could rush for 300, maybe even 350, yards in this game. Oklahoma 49, Kansas State 20

Wisconsin (+14.5) at Ohio State 50.0 O/U, 12:00 PM ET

Wisconsin stats: 72.4 plays per game (52), 444.1 yards per game (29), 7.6 points allowed per game (1), 196.3 yards allowed per game (1)

Ohio State stats: 73.4 plays per game (43), 527.1 yards per game (4), 8.0 points allowed per game (2), 229.6 yards allowed per game (2)

Yes, the Badgers just lost to the Fighting Illini, but the defense clearly wasn't the issue. These are the top-two defenses in the FBS. I do not expect a high-scoring game. This will be an interesting test for the Buckeyes, who have been on a tear offensively all season. I expect this to be their first real challenge. I know there are some big names in this game. However, DFS success is not necessarily predicated on choosing the most-famous players. I would largely avoid this game and try and find players in better matchups.

However, let's say you insist on having a Buckeye or a Badger. Who would I choose? I think Jonathan Taylor ($8,500 DK) should be fine. Ohio State has a great defense, but it has allowed 92.7 rushing yards per game. Don't even think about anybody on Ohio State's running offense, and that includes Justin Fields ($8,100). If you want a Buckeye, I'd go with K.J. Hill ($5,900 DK). He leads the team in receptions with 29, and he has four touchdowns as well.

Prediction: For the first time this season, the Buckeyes don't score at least 35 points. In fact, I don't think they even get to 30. They still win, though. Ohio State 28, Wisconsin 13

Auburn (+11.5) at LSU O/U 58.5 3:30 PM ET

Auburn stats: 72.3 plays per game (54), 433.7 yards per game (38), 17.1 points allowed per game (14), 319.0 yards allowed per game (20)

LSU stats: 70.4 plays per game (74), 528.2 yards per game (3), 21.0 yards allowed per game (31), 327.8 yards allowed per game (26)

That slacking LSU offense, falling from second to third in total yards per game. That's what they get for only scoring 36 points against Mississippi State on the road! Here's something illustrative I believe: Auburn scored 13 points against Florida, while LSU dropped 42 on them. The Auburn Tigers have a strong defense, obviously, but so does Florida, and we see what happened there.

Auburn's offense has a true freshman quarterback and is missing its best player, running back JaTarvious Whitlow. Steer clear of (Auburn) Tigers, which is also good advice in the jungle. Or playing fantasy baseball. Since Auburn does have a really good defense, though, I don't necessarily recommend stacking LSU. Their flavor of Tiger has a few excellent offensive players, of course. You can't go wrong with either Ja'Marr Chase ($7,400 DK) or Justin Jefferson ($7,300 DK). I'd lean Jefferson, though. He leads the Bayou Bengals with 48 catches for 759 yards, and he and chase both have nine touchdowns.

Prediction: Auburn's offense probably looks like it did against Florida, but LSU is going to be able to put up more points than the Gators' offense. LSU 34, Auburn 13

Oklahoma State (+10.5) at Iowa State O/U 64.0 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma State stats: 79.5 plays per game (4), 509.8 yards per game (8), 32.7 points allowed per game (92), 451.3 yards allowed per game (97)

Iowa State stats: 67.14 plays per game (119), 484.8 yards per game (14), 20.5 points allowed per game (28), 345.8 yards allowed per game (29)

These are a couple of top-notch offenses, though they get there in different ways. The Cowboys run a ton of plays, and have one of the best running back in the country, while Iowa State is hitting more big plays. I do wonder if the Cowboys will be able to keep the ball away from the Cyclones. Of course, when Iowa State does have the ball, it should be able to do damage. Oklahoma State has allowed 45 points in each of its last two games, and I think Iowa State has a better offense than Baylor or Texas Tech.

This may be your last chance to get Iowa State freshman running back Breece Hall ($6,500 DK) before his price skyrockets. The Cyclones have unleashed Hall the last two weeks, and he's responded with over 300 yards rushing and five total touchdowns. While Chuba Hubbard is the true star of Oklahoma State's offense, I'm going to recommend the team's elite receiver Tylan Wallace ($7,200 DK) instead. He has 45 catches for 772 yards and seven touchdowns after having 86 catches for 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns last year.

Prediction: This is going to be one of those high-scoring offensive barnburners that are a boon for DFS players. You may want to focus in on this one. Also, Iowa State wins. Iowa State 48, Oklahoma State 31

Texas (-1) at TCU O/U 60.0 3:30 PM ET

Texas stats: 77 plays per game (11), 482.0 yards per game (15), 30.7 points allowed per game (79), 469.9 yards allowed per game (109),

TCU stats: 77.2 plays per game (19), 433.0 yards per game (41), 28.2 points allowed per game (63), 297.8 yards allowed per game (14)

There will be a lot of plays run in this game, and probably a lot of points and yards as well. I know TCU is 14th in yards allowed per game, but the Horned Frogs allowed 41 points to SMU and 49 points in Iowa State. That being said, the Horned Frogs should be fine against Texas' defense. They just gave up 48 points to Kansas. The Longhorn may just straight-up have a bad defense.

If you want a cheaper quarterback, I'm intrigued by Max Duggan ($5,800 DK). The freshman hasn't been the guy all season, but he's thrown for nine touchdowns and rushed for two more. I think he has the chance to perform like a poor-man's Brock Purdy. Speaking Purdy, you know who is also that kind of quarterback? Sam Ehlinger ($7,900 DK), who has thrown for over 2,000 yards, rushed for over 300 yards, and totaled 26 touchdowns through the air and on the ground. If Purdy and the Cyclones could drop 49 on the Horned Frogs, Ehlinger and company should be able to do the same.

Prediction: Both quarterbacks have big games, but Texas' talent wins out, even on the road. It may be closer than you'd imagine, though. Texas 45, TCU 38

Penn State (-6.5) at Michigan State  O/U 44.5, 3:30 PM ET

Penn State stats: 68.0 plays per game (105), 402.5 yards per game (59), 10.5 points allowed per game (4), 305.0 yards allowed per game (17)

Michigan State stats: 68.0 plays per game (84), 358.6 yards per game (93), 21.0 points allowed per game (29), 314.7 yards allowed per game (19)

The Big Ten is loaded with tough defenses. In fact, four of the top five teams in points allowed per game are in the conference, and seven of the top 20 teams in yards allowed. It can't all be playing Rutgers! Also, was anybody else surprised to find out the Nittany Lions only rank 59th in yards per game on offense? I blame that muddied running game.

The Spartans have scored a total of 10 points over its last two games. Sure, they were against Wisconsin and Ohio State, the top two teams in points per game allowed, but I still am eschewing Sparty. If I trusted the Nittany Lions to just give the ball to Noah Cain, I'd recommend him, but instead my only recommendation is going to be receiver KJ Hamler ($6,300 DK). The Pontiac, Michigan native took it to the Wolverines last week, and now he can make his mark on another of his home state teams. Oh, also he has a touchdown in four-straight games. That means more than home state revenge.

Prediction: Michigan State doesn't score even 14 points for the third-straight game, but Penn State has a somewhat middling day offensive as well in a win. Penn State 27, Michigan State 10

Duke (+3.5) at North Carolina O/U 55.0, 4:00 PM ET

Duke stats: 74.3 plays per game (48), 333.3 yards per game (105), 29.0 points allowed per game (66), 355.5 yards allowed per game (35)

North Carolina stats: 76.4 plays per game (12), 434.6 yards per game (36), 27.0 points allowed per game (55), 388.7 yards allowed per game (54)

If this was a basketball game, it would be the game of the weekend. Instead, it's a football game, which, personally, I'm more excited by than a college hoops game, but I'm probably in the minority. North Carolina got off to a surprise start to the season, but its only win in its last five games came against Georgia Tech. Also, its offensive numbers are probably goosed a bit by the fact they just played a six-overtime game with Virginia Tech. Also, while the Blue Devils clearly don't have a great offense, the yards and the points don't line up entirely. Duke has scored over 40 points in three of its last five games.

I'd consider the heir apparent to Danny Dimes, Duke quarterback Quentin Harris ($7,100 DK) potentially. His passing numbers are a little mediocre, but he leads the Blue Devils with 417 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. North Carolina, for its part, has given up 174.1 yards per game on the ground. As for the Tar Heels, I'm in on receiver Dazz Newsome ($5,900 DK). If you remove the Clemson game from the equation, which is fair when considering the matchup at hand, Newsome has at least six catches and 62 yards in each of his last four games, with four total touchdowns as well.

Prediction: I feel like North Carolina has settled into being a team that loses toughly-contested games, and that happens against Saturday. Duke 34, North Carolina 31

Texas Tech (-3.5) at Kansas  O/U 62.0, 7:00 PM ET

Texas Tech stats: 80.8 plays per game (13), 440.8 yards per game (31), 31.3 points allowed per game (83), 479.0 yards allowed per game (118)

Kansas stats: 62.8 plays per game (123), 392.0 yards per game (72), 35.2 points allowed per game (111), 490.0 yards allowed per game (122)

There was a lot of surprise when Kansas scored 48 points on Texas. Of course, it also allowed 50. In fact, the Jayhawks have allowed at least 45 points in each of their last three games. We've got two teams in the bottom 20 in yards allowed per contest. Both of these teams should be able to move up and down the field. Kansas hasn't run a lot of plays, but it also just hired a new offensive coordinator, so things may change.

Normally, when you think Texas Tech, you think the running game. However, I'm actually going to recommend running back SaRodorick Thompson ($5,400 DK). It took a little whole for the Red Raiders to start using him, but he's rushed for 469 yards and seven touchdowns on 86 carries. He also has 22 receptions. On the Kansas side of things, and I would recommend looking at both sides of this matchup, there's receiver Andrew Parchment ($5,600 DK). He has 35 catches for 505 yards and five touchdowns.

Prediction: The Jayhawks break 30 points again, but the defense doesn't do any better in a loss. Texas Tech 42, Kansas 31

UCF (-10.5) at Temple O/U 61.0 7:00 PM ET

UCF stats: 79.0 plays per game (16), 530.5 yards per game (2), 25.3 points allowed per game (47), 392.0 yards allowed per game (56)

Temple stats: 78.0 plays per game (17), 376.7 yards per game (84), 24.5 points allowed per game (43), 400.0 yards allowed per game (63)

How about a little love for some Group of Five teams? There are two 5-2 squads that have been ranked during the season but currently aren't. A win for either team could get them back in the Top 25, though. That's not what you care about, though. You want those sweet, sweet stats to help your DFS decisions. Both of these teams run a lot of plays, but obviously they are getting different results. The Golden Knights just leaped over LSU to get to second in yards per game. The Owls are middle of the pack. Since the defense have been pretty equal, I am going to lean UCF in this game.

Gabriel Davis ($7,700 DK) has been one of the best receivers in the country. He's tallied 47 catches for 833 yards and 10 touchdowns. The running back situation is a little murkier. Greg McCrae has already been ruled out with an injury, and Adrian Killins (undisclosed) is questionable after leaving UCF's last game with an injury and not returning. Given all that, if you want a sleeper, I'm intrigued by Bentavious Thompson ($4,800 DK). He's done quite well with his limited touches, as he's averaged 7.7 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns.

Prediction: I don't think UCF will do what SMU did to Temple last week and score 45 points, because this game is in Philly. However, the Golden Knights will still win on the power of their offense. UCF 35, Temple 24

Arizona State (-4) at UCLA O/U 55.0, 7:30 PM ET

Arizona State stats: 63.7 plays per game (114), 359.5 yards per game (92), 20.0 points allowed per game (23), 360.7 yards allowed per game (40)

UCLA stats: 74.0 plays per game (22), 405.6 yards per game (55), 34.6 points allowed per game (108), 459.7 yards allowed per game (104)

Chip Kelly is starting to get what he wants out of the Bruins offense. Bear in mind, these numbers have been posted even though at times the team has been without its lead running back Joshua Kelley ($6,300)and starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($6,900). Thompson-Robinson returned last week, tallied three touchdowns, and the Bruins scored 34 points on the road against Stanford. The Sun Devils have a tougher defense, though. I also see those defensive numbers for UCLA and wonder how much the Bruins will have the ball.

UCLA's defensive problems are largely in the passing game. The Bruins have allowed 312.4 passing yards per contest. Due to that, I'm looking at the first, second, and third option in the Arizona State passing game, receiver Brandon Aiyuk ($5,700 DK). Aiyuk has racked up 658 yards and five touchdowns, and while he's struggled against tough defenses, that won't be the case here. Since Arizona State's real strength in rushing defense, I think UCLA's top receiver Demetric Felton ($6,800 DK) is also worth consideration. He actually contributes on the ground as well as through the air. On the season, Felton has 420 yards receiving, 298 yards rushing, and four total touchdowns.

Prediction: I think the arrow is up on UCLA, and down on Arizona State, but I don't think they have passed each other on the road just yet. Arizona State 28, UCLA 24

Notre Dame (+1) at Michigan O/U 51.0, 7:30 PM

Notre Dame stats: 65.7 plays per game (109), 454.0 yards per game (20), 16.8 points allowed per game (13), 348.0 yards allowed per game (31)

Michigan stats: 70.6 plays per game (57), 392.1 yards per game (71), 19.0 points allowed per game (16), 285.0 yards allowed per game (10)

The Wolverines have had to face a run of tough defenses recently. In its last five games they've faced Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State. Now they have to take on Notre Dame. On the other hand, the Wolverines have a formidable defense of their own. I imagine this being a low-scoring game, especially since it is at the Big House.

I think Michigan can get things going on the ground, Notre Dame has allowed more than 150 yards per game rushing, so I like Zach Charbonnet ($5,600 DK). The freshman has rushed for seven touchdowns, including four in his last five games. If he can do it on the road against Iowa and Penn State, he can do it at home against the Fighting Irish. Conversely, I like Notre Dame's top running back, Tony Jones Jr. ($5,500 DK) as well. He's been on a tear recently, as he's gone over 100 yards in each of his last three games.

Prediction: You'd think Michigan would have to win one of these big games this season. You would think wrong here. Notre Dame 24, Michigan 21