DraftKings College Football Main Slate Week 1
We made it. The first college football Saturday of the year is finally here. The long offseason is in the rearview mirror. The #taeks we've been workshopping all spring and summer are finally going to get put to work this week.
The college football world will have its attention on Ohio State vs Texas at noon eastern to kick off the slate. That should be a good game, I guess.
But for our purposes, that piddly 47.5 over/under isn't moving the needle. How about FAU-Maryland leading the way with a spicy 61.5? or Southern Miss vs Mississippi State right behind at 60.5? That's where the DFS goodness might be this weekend.
High Totals, Tight Spreads
This is generally the well we want to draw from for our lineup builds. If you're new here, a high total means there will be a large amount of points scored relative to other games on the slate. Pair that with a narrow spread (~ under 17.5 points) and we have a good offensive environment on both sides of the game.
This week, Maryland (-14.0) vs FAU (O/U 61.5) tips the scales in that regard. Maryland has had solid offenses under Mike Locksley (for the most part) and is starting a new chapter with Malik Washington at quarterback. Washington was one of Maryland's biggest recruiting wins in recent memory, choosing the Terps over the likes of Penn State, Oregon, West Virginia and Nebraska.
FAU, meanwhile, brings in a lot of what made Western Kentucky and Texas Tech successful on offense the last few years with Zach Kittley now running the show. The Caden Veltkamp and Easton Messer QB-WR combo should be a fruitful one this weekend.
Digging into the Magnolia State, we have Southern Miss hosting Mississippi State as 13.5-point underdogs. The total is at 60.5, so there should be decent scoring from Southern Miss and plentiful points from Miss State. You don't have to break the bank for either quarterback: Braylon Braxton ($7,500) projects well in this spot and Blake Shapen ($6,800) is undervalued in my opinion. He appeared to be a natural fit in this offense last year before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury against Florida in Week 4.
Adding on, none of the pass-catchers in this game are listed above $5,800. Neither of these teams pushed the pace last year on paper, but with Shapen back for Miss State and a new braintrust in town in Hattiesburg, this game hitting the over is very much in the realm of possibility. This will be a good game to go after this weekend.
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Quarterback
It's tricky to navigate the top tier this week. Arch Manning tips the scales at $9,000 but is on the road against a top-three defense. Drew Allar ($8,900) and Gunner Stockton ($8,500) are both on teams with hefty team totals but are favored by 42.5 and 38.5 points, respectively. Getting either to enough passing volume might be difficult.
Drawing on last year, Allar had 20 and 30 attempts, respectively, against G5 teams in the regular season. He had one game with 21.9 points (not ideal) and one with 36.0 points (terrific). With that, Allar should be on the tournament radar. The upside scenario is in play even with ~25 passes. There is a Heisman campaign to kick off, anyway.
As for Stockton, Georgia is invested in getting him reps and confidence before the gauntlet kicks in in two weeks.
Usually, I steer away from QBs in these types of setups, but again, I see the tournament appeal this week. Let's dig into some of the other conventionally good plays this week.
Fernando Mendoza ($8,200) Indiana vs Old Dominion
Mendoza makes his Hoosier debut Saturday against the Monarchs. He projects extremely well in this spot -- Old Dominion is going to be one of the worst teams in college football this year. And we know that Indiana doesn't mind running up a score when the opportunity.
Mendoza has tons of promise -- he posted good numbers with suspect surrounding talent at California. Indiana is far more well-stocked in this era and receivers like Elijah Sarratt will help Mendoza get off to a hot start. The Hoosiers have the third-highest implied total on the board, and Mendoza is going to help them reach it.
Ty Simpson ($8,000) Alabama at Florida State
Simpson is touted as a pocket passer that fits the Ryan Grubb offense like the one we saw two years ago at Washington when Michael Penix was carving up defenses every weekend. Alabama should start this game emphasizing the pass, even with this being Simpson's first start, given that the backfield is banged up and shorthanded.
I, for one, am a big believer in Simpson this year and believe that this Alabama offense will look similar to the ones we saw with Bryce Young or Mac Jones at the helm. Having Ryan Williams, Isaiah Horton and Germie Bernard out wide will only help Simpson start fast against a suspect FSU defense.
Game Stacks
Caden Veltkamp ($7,600) FAU & Malik Washington ($6,600) Maryland
Braylon Braxton ($7,500) Southern Miss & Blake Shapen ($6,800)
Others to consider
Tommy Castellanos, Florida State ($6,200): Brutal matchup will have the field looking elsewhere. Worth a dart in tournaments, especially with his rushing upside.
Jake Retzlaff, Tulane ($5,500): Simply too cheap for a starting quarterback of this caliber at home against an inferior opponent.
Running Back
Rocko Griffin, UMass ($5,500) vs Temple
This game might be the oddity of the slate but you shouldn't just scroll on by. Especially when Temple had the second-worst run defense of any team on this slate last year (226.8 RuYD/G; 5.6 YPC). Griffin is listed as the starting running back and has a good bit of experience under his belt between stops at Vanderbilt and UTSA.
In his two seasons with significant work, he had 91 rushes for 483 yards and six touchdowns and one with 145 carries for 517 yards and four touchdowns. I'm guessing the roster percentage will be rather low on Griffin in that weird RB no-man's land in the $5,000s. 15+ cracks at this Temple defense should get us what we need from Griffin.
Jay Ducker, Temple ($6,000) vs UMass
I'm not sure what Temple's going to be this year. Against UMass, though, I'm not sure how much that matters. Ducker is the starting running back and that's something to keep in mind. The well-traveled Ducker is at his fourth school in four years. He's had a 1,000-yard season under his belt at NIU and churned out 745 yards and seven scores at Sam Houston last year.
Importantly, he came to Temple from Sam Houston with new head coach K.C. Keeler. That offense ran it at a 61% clip last season.
This game might not be the most up-tempo or high schoring but concentrating rushing volume and bad defense make both Ducker and the aforementioned Griffin good plays here.
Fluff Bothwell, Mississippi State ($5,900) at Southern Miss
It's tough to choose between Bothwell and Davon Booth ($5,800), and I imagine that's a tough call for the coaching staff, too. Bothwell comes to Miss State from South Alabama, where he lit it up last year. He may have a learning curve against SEC competition, but against a team like Southern Miss it's easy to see him turning 10+ carries into strong production.
Southern Miss coughed up 232.7 rushing yards per game last season. This feels like a great spot for the Miss State ground game to flex its muscle. I'll be churning out multiple lineups this weekend and mixing in both Bothwell and Booth, but I give a slight lean to Bothwell in this spot.
Others to Consider
Richard Young, Alabama ($5,800) at Florida State; Qua Ashley, Ball State ($4,800) at Purdue; Zach Frazier, UGA ($7,800) vs Marshall)
Wide Receiver
I'm willing to take bigger swings at receiver on this slate with the potential savings at running back. Here are some guys I'm targeting Saturday.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State ($9,000) vs Texas
This is pretty self-explanatory. Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football. Texas will do everything it can to stop him, and that's fine. Smith is going to get his at some point. The Horns are not holding him to one catch for three yards again.
Ryan Williams, Alabama ($9,100) at Florida State
Williams is in that conversation with Smith as the best in the business right now, and he gets a much easier matchup. Florida State is breaking in a new group of starting corners and that's gotta have Williams all the more keyed up for this season-opener in Tallahassee.
Like Smith, suggesting Williams is a formality on this slate and something I'll only feel compelled to do this season when I wonder whether the roster percentage will be high enough. Yes, $9,100 is a spicy investment, but Williams should be able to return value here. Ty Simpson being $8,000 and a better passer than Jalen Milroe helps add fuel to the Williams play/Bama stack this weekend.
Elijah Sarratt, Indiana ($7,100) vs Old Dominion
We've established that the IU passing game should feast on Saturday and getting Sarratt in your lineup is the best way to capitalize on that.
Last year, Sarratt commanded nearly 25% of the targets and averaged a stellar 11.0 YPT on that volume. The only thing stopping Sarratt is Indiana calling off the dogs sometime in the fourth quarter. $7,100 is too low for a player with probably 90% of the upside of the two aforementioned wideouts.
Omari Hayes, Tulane ($4,600) vs Northwestern
We can feel confident in Tulane's passing game this week with Jake Retzlaff at the helm and Hayes has stuck his claim to a starting role in the slot. That should lead to targets aplenty against a bad Northwestern secondary. Hayes was a priority add for the Wave after hauling in 590 receiving yards and three touchdowns with a 9.8 YPT at FAU last year.
The Hayes/Retzlaff stack will barely run you over 20% of your salary cap this week. Just sayin'.
Parker Livingstone, Texas ($3,300) at Ohio State
This will likely be one of the more popular cheap plays this weekend, with word coming out Friday that Emmett Mosley will be severely limited against the Buckeyes. This apparently opens the door for Livingstone. Even if the rest of the field is on Livingstone, sometimes that's alright if it gives you the flexibility to build out the rest of an ideal lineup.
The Southern Miss/Miss. State Pass Catchers
- Elijah Metcalf, USM ($5,700): Followed QB Braylon Braxton from Marshall, they have a solid rapport (20 catches for 194 yards and three scores on 31 targets in five games last year).
- Micah Davis, USM ($4,100): Another transfer who comes from Ole Miss by way of Utah State, where he racked up 628 yards and six touchdowns two years ago.
- Anthony Evans, Mississippi State ($5,800): Georgia transfer who should get his shot at a big role in this offense. He's got kick returner speed and should be a bit of a mismatch against this secondary.
- Jordan Mosley, Mississippi State ($5,300): Top returning wideout from a year ago who had an efficient 10.1 YPT mark. He had a lower volume role but with departures up and down the roster, he should draw more targets this year.
Others to consider
Michael Jackson, Purdue ($3,000); Ty Robinson, Ball State ($4,900)
