DraftKings College Football DFS Picks: CFB Week 4 DFS Main Slate Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.

CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football Week 4 DFS Picks and Plays

We're nearly a month into the season and we're starting to get a better idea of who these teams are as conference play gets closer to being in full swing. Clinging to our priors from before the season is getting trickier and trickier with each passing week. It's growing increasingly important to take stock of what's happening this season. 

Of course, there's still a grain of salt to take with the production we're seeing across the board. Some teams on this slate have faced little competition to this point and their numbers are likely inflated relative to what we can expect this weekend. Other teams have had a tougher road to this point, and some have had wild schedule variance. 

Clemson fits that bill in that it was steamrolled by Georgia in the opener and took out its frustrations on poor App State the following week. The truth about Clemson likely lies somewhere in the middle, and a test against NC State will be a useful data point for them moving forward. 

Let's dig into the slate overview and some of my favorite plays from each position this weekend. 

Slate Overview

We've got a deep slate this week in that there are tons of games and teams to load up on instead of so many of the entries being tied to a very concentrated range of matchups. Eight games have over/unders north of 50 points and 10 teams have implied totals over 28.0 points. Texas Tech vs Arizona paces the slate with an over/under of 59.0 points with both teams expected to chip in at least 28 points, so that will be a popular starting place for many lineup builds. 

The Oklahoma State-Utah total has dropped two points this week even though it appears Utah will have Cam Rising available. Still, that game fits the bill as reasonably high scoring (52.5) with a tight spread (OK State -2.0).

The thing that makes every CFB DFS player nervous right now is what to do with Ollie Gordon. Despite two straight duds relative to his salary, Gordon still checks in at $9,700 which fundamentally changes how you build your lineup if you roster him. I've been overweight on Gordon the last two weekends so I am keenly aware of what a lineup looks like when 20% of your salary cap has the dreaded ❄️ next to it. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice?

People may be understandably frustrated enough to leave Gordon out of their lineups this weekend, especially with a tough matchup on paper. I still think Gordon is too talented and too important to the offense to stay down for too much longer, so I won't fully fade him. That said, I'm not building my core lineups around him this weekend, either.

Mississippi State vs Florida

Whereas Arizona State-Texas Tech was hardly a surprise at the top, I had to do a doubletake when I saw the next game: Florida vs Mississippi State. The total has swelled from 56.5 to 58 over the week and the line has moved 1.5 points in Florida's direction.

I watched more of Florida's game against Texas A&M than I'd care to admit and Miss State is obviously coming off a humiliating and literally costly home loss to Toledo. A closer look shows that Florida's offense isn't that bad -- it ranks 31st per SP+ -- but the defense is scraping the bottom of the barrel by P4 standards. Luckily, so is Miss State's. So there could be some juice in that game, it's just not so obvious as to where it's coming from with Florida's QB rotation and Miss State's general lethargy on offense thus far.

Running on Miss State has been a breeze thus far as it ranks 122nd in rush yards allowed per game. This puts Montrell Johnson ($5,900) firmly in play, especially when he's commanding 38 percent of the carries. Treyaun Webb ($4,100) picked up 24 percent of the rushing share last week, a season-high, and averaged over 6.0 YPC. If you're playing in a tournament and need a cheaper running back, Webb's an option. 

In the passing game, it's hard to play either Graham Mertz or DJ Lagway with confidence given the playing time split. However, Elijah Badger ($5,000) and Chimere Dike ($4,800) are really interesting pieces on this slate with strong target share projections and good YPT figures to this point. Eugene Wilson being out makes Florida's pass-catchers easier to project.

Flipping to the other side, Kevin Coleman ($5,500) is a nice way to get exposure to this game. He leads the team in target share (21%) and averages 14.1 YPT with an 84% catch rate. His quarterback, Blake Shapen ($8,000) sets up well here. He's a little pricier against your salary cap than is ideal but given the pricing for the other playable options from this game, Shapen can squeeze into your lineup. 

West Virginia vs Kansas

We've got a high total here of 57.5 and a spread of West Virginia -2.5. The issue I'm having is that what each offense does well, the opposing defense is sound in that area. I'd love to go all-in on Kansas' ground game but WVU is really tough to run on. The WVU pass defense has been a sieve but Kansas doesn't seem built to exploit it. Jalon Daniels has struggled as a passer thus far, completing 55 percent of his passes at a 6.2 YPA with three touchdowns and six picks. It's hard to envision that turning around on the road, even against a bad pass defense. 

Kansas has been stingy on defense in both facets. West Virginia's implied total is 30.0 so the books expect the 'Neers to have some success. I think it will come from the usual suspects; Garrett Greene ($7,800) is a fine QB/Superflex option and CJ Donaldson is comically underpriced at $4,900 despite having a 40 percent rushing share.

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Quarterback

Haynes King ($7,600) Georgia Tech at Louisville

King's salary has dropped $500 since the last time he was on a DK slate, which was Week 2 against Syracuse. That was a road game and Tech lost, but King had a great fantasy outing with 33.3 DK points. 

I'm a little confused by this spread. Louisville is good and it's a home game for the Cards, but 11 points? Georgia Tech is plenty good enough to hang tough with Louisville here. King has been better than the salary suggests; he has the rushing ability to give him a high floor and Louisville's defense isn't all that imposing (73rd in FPI). 

It also helps that his top targets, Eric Singleton ($5,000) and Malik Rutherford ($4,800), are bargain options. If the spread is correct and Tech is playing from behind, this suddenly becomes a catch-up script that fuels the passing game. Don't sleep on Tech's offense this weekend.

Blake Shapen ($8,000) Mississippi State vs Florida 

The Gators just let Texas A&M backup quarterback Marcel Reed go for 29.4 fantasy points on them in the Swamp last weekend and now have to hit the road to face a better offense. In fairness, Reed gave Florida more fits with his legs, running for 83 yards and a score, than Shapen will. Reed still averaged 10.5 YPA on 17 pass attempts though, and that Florida secondary will be tested upwards of 40 times Saturday. 

Shapen has looked plenty credible thus far even if Mississippi State as a whole has disappointed. A 70 percent completion rate with a 9.6 YPA and 7:1 TD:INT is a solid first three games. He's best used this week if you're also loading up on this game, but I think he works as a play on his own merit. 

Others to Consider: Will Howard, Ohio State ($8,300); Riley Leonard, Notre Dame ($7,700); Tyler Shough, Louisville ($7,200)

For the record, I have no read on why DraftKings has AJ Swann ($8,200) over Garrett Nussmeier ($8,000)

Running Back

Cameron Skattebo ($7,300) Arizona State at Texas Tech

If there's a weakness in Texas Tech's defense, it's the ability to stop the run. The Red Raiders are allowing 181.7 rushing yards per game thus far. A lot of that came from a dreadful showing up in Pullman against Wazzu when quarterback John Mateer went absolutely bonkers, but it's still an area that Arizona State will try to exploit.

The Sun Devils run it 67% of the time and with good reason. They average 229.3 rushing yards per game -- good for 22nd in the country. Skattebo is the tip of that spear with a 49 percent share of the carries. He's up to 373 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 5.5 YPC thus far and has been fed over the last two weeks with 57 total carries. Volume and matchup make Skattebo one of the elite RB plays of this slate.

Phil Mafah ($6,000) Clemson vs North Carolina State

Clemson hasn't really given the ball to anyone but Mafah in competitive situations yet. Now, Clemson is a shockingly big favorite here (-19.0) but it's also a conference game and Clemson needs some style points to help paper over the beating it took in Week 1. All this to say -- Mafah should be in line for plenty of work this week.

Mafah had nowhere to run in the opener but bounced back nicely against App State with 10 rushes for 118 yards and a touchdown in limited action. It's reasonable to expect close to 20 carries from him in this spot and that many bites at the apple against an NC State defense that's giving up 5.0 YPC thus far is a nice deal for just $6K. 

Montrell Johnson ($5,900) Florida at Mississippi State

I can't believe after all this research that I'm this in on Florida's offense this week. You're gonna get more from this game in the WR section but if there's an RB to target in this game, it's Johnson.

Johnson has a 44 percent rushing share and faces a Miss State defense that coughs up 213.7 rushing yards per game. He was bottled up last week by Texas A&M's defense last week and it will almost be disorienting to see the rushing lanes that will be available to him this week. I'm buying the dip coming off a rough performance and backing Johnson as a solid mid-tier option this week. 

Counterpart Treyaun Webb ($4,100) got some work last week and could be a part of the game plan this week. Even 7-8 carries might be enough to help Webb return value at $4,100.

Kyle Monangai ($7,600) Rutgers atVirginia Tech

If I'm shopping in this aisle for running back this week, it'll be hard to turn away from Monangai. Like the Skattebo situation with Arizona State, Rutgers is similarly reliant on Monangai to make the offense go. Rutgers runs it at a 66 percent clip and Monangai has claim to over 50 percent of the rushing workload. 

He's already proven to be effective with heavy workloads, averaging 5.2 YPC over 242 carries last year. Monangai is already halfway to his touchdown total from last season in just two games and is coming off a bye, so he will be ready to go here.

Virginia Tech has been gashed on the ground so far, giving up 190.3 rushing yards per game at a 5.1 YPC clip. Monangai is well-positioned for yet another big day Saturday.

Others to Consider: Jadarian Price, Notre Dame ($4,500); CJ Donaldson, West Virginia ($4,900)

Wide Receiver

Here's this week's target report where you'll find the pass-catchers on this slate with the best combination of volume and explosiveness. Basic parameters I used are a minimum of four targets per game with a minimum of 9.5 YPT, sorted by YPT.

Elijhah Badger ($5,000) and Chimere Dike ($4,800) Florida  at Mississippi State

We touched on the basic parameters of this game earlier, and now we'll dig a little deeper into these two. Again, Eugene Wilson is sidelined as he recovers from meniscus surgery. That leaves Badger and Dike atop the food chain in this passing attack.

Badger, a former Sun Devil, has a 19 percent target share that is trending up and he is averaging a silly 17.3 YPT. Dike, a former Badger, popped off with seven targets last week and averages 14.6 YPT. At one time, Dike was one of the better receivers in the Big 10 when he racked up 47 catches for 689 yards and six touchdowns while playing alongside Mertz at Wisconsin.

Again, the Miss State defense is one to target this week. This duo is a nice way of getting exposure.

Kevin Coleman ($5,500) and Jordan Mosley ($4,300) Mississippi State vs Florida

Going back to the well in this game, Coleman and Mosley are great pairing options especially if you're rostering Shapen. 

Coleman is the team's target leader and is catching almost everything thrown his way. He also leads the team in touchdown receptions. Mosley doesn't see as much volume but his efficiency and explosiveness are right in line with that of Coleman. Florida's secondary gives up 8.2 YPA to opposing quarterbacks and this tandem should inflict most of the damage this week.

Last thought on this game: the Whittemore family tie-ins are interesting, maybe only to me. Creed Whittemore is a sophomore receiver at Miss State. He's from Gainesville and his older brother, Trent, played receiver at Florida. Whittemore has a 41-yard rushing TD and a 26-yard catch to his credit thus far this season.

Josh Kelly ($6,500) Texas Tech vs Arizona State

The receiver pricing this week is pretty soft, generally. Getting Texas Tech's No.1 target for just $6,500 we'll have to consider. The Red Raiders have a top-5 passing attack (358.3 YPG) and Kelly is commanding ~22% of the targets. He averages just under 10 yards per target and has a 72 percent catch rate. If this game turns into the track meet we're expecting, Kelly will be busy.

Teammate Coy Eakin ($5,700) is also worth a look if you want cheaper exposure to this passing attack. Freshman Micah Hudson ($3,300) was one of the top-rated receiver recruits in this year's cycle and seems to be getting more run, though his production to this point has come in blowout situations. He'll be a name to file away for later, if nothing else.

Jake Briningstool ($4,900) Clemson vs  North Carolina State

This one's pretty straightforward. Briningstool is arguably Clemson's best pass-catcher and leads the team in targets, yet he checks in under $5K. He's seeing 5.5 targets per game and is up to 11.5 YPT with a pair of touchdowns. NC State is mediocre against the pass, Clemson has a healthy implied total of 31.5, and this is a nice setup for the tight end. 

Others to Consider: Cade McDonald, Miami of Ohio ($6,000); Ja'Corey Brooks, Louisville ($4,800); Malik Rutherford and Eric Singleton, Georgia Tech