DraftKings College Football: Week 9 Main Slate

Welcome to this week's main slate breakdown over on DraftKings. We have a 12-gamer with seven of those contests sporting Over/Unders at 55 or more. Below you'll find a cheat sheet along with our suite of DFS tools and a breakdown by position with my favorite plays of the week. 

Cheat Sheet

Link to the cheat sheet 

DFS Tools

Stats

Targets

Team Trends

Defense vs. Position

Team Rankings

DFS Primer

Lineup Optimizer

Value Report

Podcast

Position by Position Breakdown

Quarterback

The Elites

Whether it's Jalen Hurts ($9,200) versus Kansas State, Joe Burrow ($8,700) versus Auburn, or Justin Fields ($8,100) versus Wisconsin, you can't really go wrong. Hurts is the safest but also the priciest; he leads the Sooners in rushing and also leads the nation in YPA among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Unbelievable combo from an unbelievable player. 

With Burrow, his matchup is decidedly tougher than Hurts', but do you really want to be against this LSU offense right now? In Death Valley? I likely won't have too many shares of Burrow because I respect the Auburn defense and also like some cheaper quarterbacks. I wouldn't argue with anyone going heavy on Burrow shares this weekend, though. And the ownership should be reasonable given the opponent.

Fields is at home but has the toughest matchup of the three. Wisconsin gives up 4.6 YPA and has allowed five touchdowns while recording eight interceptions. Quarterbacks are completing 43.8 percent of their passes against the Badgers. These are all things that can at least lead us to conclude Fields will have one of his lower fantasy outings of the year. That's fine. But a quarterback of Fields' talent isn't going to get shut down at home over 60 minutes. To actively fade Fields is to bet against him scoring more than 24 fantasy points. I just can't do that with any sort of confidence. 

Sam Ehlinger ($7,900)  Texas at TCU

Ehlinger seems to be flying under the radar because Texas has been dealt two losses, even though neither were on him necessarily. He's been really, good though. Ehlinger actually averages more fantasy points per game than Fields (35.6 PPG compared to Fields' 34.2) and has an easier matchup but is somehow cheaper than the Ohio State signal-caller. He leads the Longhorns in rushing touchdowns (5) and is really evolving as a passer thanks in part to his star-studded supporting cast. His completion percentage (69.4) and YPA (8.1) are career highs and he's only four touchdowns shy of tying his passing total from last season. TCU's numbers against the pass are strong as you can see above, but Ehlinger's weapons along with his rushing upside are enough to back him this week. 

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M ($7,300) vs. Mississippi State

Mond underperformed his projection last week in a great spot, going for just 16.5 DraftKings points against a weak Ole Miss defense -- that's nearly nine full points fewer than his average going into that game. I see this as a great buy-low opportunity as a result. Mississippi State is giving up 9.5 YPA to SEC opponents, along with 271 passing yards per game. 

Mond has at least 14 rushing attempts in each of his last three games, so in addition to having a favorable matchup through the air, his rushing production could be a major added bonus. 

Sam Howell ($7,100) North Carolina vs. Duke

Howell has been beyond impressive this season even if you take his numbers from the wild six-overtime game from Week 8 out of the equation. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season while completing 61.1 percent of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA. Howell is also the only true freshman with at least 20 passing touchdowns at this point in the season. Point being: Howell has what it takes to be special. 

He's taking on a Duke defense that has been effective against the pass, but it's fair to question the level of quarterback play the Blue Devils have faced to this point. Outside of the season opener against Alabama and Tua Tagovailoa, the best quarterback Duke has faced is Bryce Perkins, who has been middling as a passer thus far this year. Look for Howell to make the most of a high pass attempt volume at home Saturday against the Blue Devils.

Tanner Morgan ($6,300) Minnesota vs. Maryland

Morgan is an interesting case for DFS. On the one hand, he's remarkably efficient; Morgan completes 66.4 percent of his passes with a 10.68 YPA that ranks fourth among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts. Morgan is also throwing a touchdown on 10.5 percent of his passes. The problem is, we'll need him to maintain that efficiency Saturday for him to be useful, because he can't be counted on for volume. 

Morgan has attempted more than 25 passes just once in four conference games and has thrown less than 20 passes in two of those contests. Fortunately, Maryland's passing defense is shaky enough to where Morgan can inflict plenty of damage on a relatively light number of pass attempts. The Terps give up 287 passing yards per game, the fourth-highest mark of any team on the slate. Morgan is in a prime spot to outproduce his low price tag considering the matchup and his strong track record thus far. 

Running Back

The Elites

Jonathan Taylor ($8,500) and Chuba Hubbard ($8,300) lead the way here, and rightfully so. They're the only running backs averaging over 30 fantasy points per game. The problem is they both face extremely tough matchups. While this should keep ownership down, I'd caution at going 100 percent lineup exposure to either of these guys. You can point to how profitable Taylor was against Michigan as he racked up 36 DK points while having a low ownership due to fear of the matchup. I'm not as confident that Taylor will have that same success this week -- we have a bigger sample on Ohio State than we did on Michigan and the results paint a fairly bleak picture for Wisconsin. I still like Taylor in season-long of course, but I can think of better ways to spread around that $8,500 you'd be sinking into him on DraftKings.

With Hubbard, it's not as immediately apparent that his matchup is tough. Iowa State is giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the Big 12 and is at home for this matchup. With Spencer Sanders struggling mightily of late, it'd make sense for Iowa State to emphasize slowing Hubbard in an effort to challenge Sanders to step up. Hubbard sees such a heavy workload that his bottom line will likely be fine Saturday, but again, I can think of other ways I'd rather use that portion of salary. 

Cam Akers ($7,500) Florida State vs. Syracuse

Syracuse is bad. So is Florida State, honestly. But Akers is very good, and at $7,500, he's probably my favorite RB play of the week. Akers commands a 41 percent share of Florida State's total touches and has been effective with that heavy role. Outside of the clunker against Clemson, Akers averages 5.1 YPC and his role in the passing game appears to be on the upswing. He caught four of five targets for 42 yards and a score against Wake Forest in Week 8, and that coincided with Akers being unleashed for 157 rushing yards and a touchdown. Now he gets to face a Syracuse defense that gives up an ACC-worst 34.2 DK points to opposing running backs. This is a great spot for Akers. 

Breece Hall ($6,500) Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State

As I said on the podcast, this will probably be the last time we see Hall priced under $7K this season. We can use that light price tag to our advantage this week against an Oklahoma State defense that gives up 173 rushing yards per game. In two games since taking over the lead role for the Cyclones, Hall has racked up 315 rushing yards and five scores on 45 attempts while catching all four of his targets for 78 yards. The only issue with Hall this week will be an ownership percentage that could reach into the 40-50 range. 

Deon Jackson ($5,500) Duke at North Carolina

Virginia had the blue print in stopping the Duke offense in Week 8 and Jackson felt the sting, posting just 2.5 DraftKings points on 12 rushes. Prior to that, Jackson recorded at least 20 DK points in three straight games. He has a 34 percent market share of Duke's rushing attempts and now gets to face a North Carolina defense that surrenders the third-most rushing yards per game of any team on the slate. Jackson, coming off a bad game that kept his price tag down, is one of my favorite mid-tier plays at running back this week. 

A Word of Caution

Cam'Ron Harris ($4,800) of Miami is a great play for the price if he ends up starting Saturday, which appears to be the likely scenario. But there are some concerns here. First of all, Harris' production from Week 8 might be a bit of fool's gold -- he ran for 136 yards on 18 carries, but that was against a Georgia Tech defense that gives up over 220 rushing yards per game. Second, this matchup against Pittsburgh is much tougher. The Panthers hold opponents to just 96 rushing yards per game on 2.86 YPC. That's stout. So if you need a player under $5,000 to make a lineup work, Harris is viable. But I'd pump the brakes on him being the value play of the week.

For The Bold

Nathan Tilford, Arizona ($4,400) at Stanford is a dart I'll consider. The Cardinal just got shredded by UCLA's run game and has given up eight rushing scores in five conference games. Tilford is admittedly part of a deep running back rotation for the Wildcats, but he's seen at least 15 percent of the rushes in each of the last three games. He averages 7.39 YPC and leads the Wildcats in rushing scores with four on just 28 attempts. Again, the lack of guaranteed volume makes this a tournament-only play. But Tilford's explosiveness has been too much to keep him on the sidelines of late, and the matchup is favorable. 

Javon Leake, Maryland ($5,200) is another interesting tournament dart. The price tag will keep people off of him as starter Anthony McFarland ($7,400) is back in the fold. Leake has been getting plenty of work this season, even when McFarland has been healthy. And he's been extremely explosive, averaging 8.46 YPC on 59 carries and recording 159 more total rushing yards than McFarland on seven less attempts. His performance as the starter a week ago will likely keep him heavily involved in the offense even with McFarland back. 

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb ($7,200) Oklahoma at Kansas State

My podcast cohost Nick Whalen and I had a lively discussion this week on choosing between Lamb and Oklahoma State's Tylan Wallace, who is also $7,200. I sided with Lamb. Yes, Lamb has a significantly smaller target share than Wallace does in his offense, with Lamb seeing 24 percent of the Sooner targets compared to Wallace's 37.6 percent share. But Lamb averages nearly 6.0 more yards per target than Wallace and the fact that Lamb is coming off a muted performance may steer people off of him to a more sure thing like Wallace. Oklahoma is expected  to score a slate-high 40 points this week and I expect Lamb to play a major part in that. The dud against West Virginia had more to do with Oklahoma not needing to overload Lamb to still cruise to victory. He'll be back in form Saturday.

Tyler Johnson ($6,300) Minnesota vs. Maryland

Johnson is a strong play in his own right that becomes even more appealing if you were buying what I was selling re: Tanner Morgan. The senior wideout ranks ninth in the nation in YPT among receivers with at least 50 targets (11.1 YPT, ahead of Tylan Wallace and Easop Winston Jr.). Johnson also commands a 35 percent target share in the Minnesota offense. With Maryland struggling to stop the pass, Johnson is primed for another high-volume outing and there's reason to believe that he can turn those targets into explosive production. 

Taysir Mack ($6,400) and Maurice Ffrench ($6,300), Pittsburgh vs. Miami

If this wasn't a full-point PPR format, I wouldn't bother with these two or the Pitt offense in general. But it is, so here we are. Mack and Ffrench average 10.9 and 11.2 targets per game, respectively. Neither are explosive, with Mack averaging 7.2 YPT and Ffrench notching a paltry 6.2 YPT, but if we can get seven or eight catches out of each of them and maybe a touchdown, we'll have no regrets having used them. I'd lean Mack if I had to choose between the two because of his edge in YPT, but Ffrench shouldn't lag too far behind in terms of production. 

Tamorrion Terry ($5,600) Florida State vs. Syracuse

Like Cam Akers, I can't believe Terry's price tag this week given his track record and the matchup. Terry owns a 21 percent target share in the Florida State offense while no other Seminole is seeing more than 12.9 percent. He also has a strong 9.5 YPT and has a team-high six touchdowns. Syracuse gives up 270 passing yards per game and is in a tailspin, having lost all four of its games against Power 5 competition. A game in Tallahassee won't cure what ails this Syracuse defense, and Terry will be part of the reason why.