This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Penn State at Maryland Betting Odds and Best Bets
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No. 11 Penn State heads to College Park to face the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday afternoon. The Nittany Lions appeared to suffer a hangover following their first loss of the year to Ohio State, needing the full 60 minutes to pull away from lowly Indiana last week. They've failed to cover in each of their last two games and now sit at 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The over has hit in five of their eight games. Maryland limps into this matchup, losing three straight after starting the year 5-0. Losing to Ohio State is understandable, but losses to Illinois and Indiana likely aren't. They sit at 3-5 ATS with the over hitting four times in eight games.
Penn State at Maryland Betting Odds for Week 10
Spread: Penn State -8.5 (FanDuel)
Total: 50.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Penn State -340 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Maryland +275 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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We've seen major movement with the spread here. There were some early lines prior to last week's games that had Penn State as much as a 12.5-point favorite. That fell to 10 points by Sunday evening, and it's continued sliding further down. It's still varying across books, too, with (-9.5) still available and a handful of -9's. Depending on which side you're leaning, this is a clear case of looking around for the best number.
Predictably, the moneyline odds have moved starkly with the spread. Maryland could have been had at +310 earlier in the week, while Penn State was a -395 favorite to win. Curiously, I may have had more interest in the Terps at the larger number than now, given their sliding form.
The total is the exact opposite. It sits where it opened and has moved minimally all week, briefly ticking up to 51 points before coming back down. It's universal across all books. Currently, the best odds for the over sit at Caesar's, while the under at BetMGM and FanDuel, but the differences are minimal at best.
Penn State at Maryland Betting Picks for Week 10
Without getting into the matchup, it's difficult to have faith in either side, given the current form. We get into the matchup, and it seemingly becomes even more difficult. Maryland's offense revolves around QB Taulia Tagovailoa and the passing game, ranking 30th nationally with 280.5 ypg and a 19:6 TD:INT ratio. Penn State counters that with the sixth-ranked pass defense, allowing 160.3 ypg and a 5:8 TD:INT ratio. If we revert back to current form however, the Nittany Lions have allowed 555 yards through the air over the last two weeks.
Both teams offer strong run defenses statistically, and neither side has had great success running the ball in conference play. And while Maryland is statistically vulnerable to the pass, Penn St QB Drew Allar has been more opportunistic (16 TDs, 1 INT) than he has slung it around, throwing for more than 210 yards just once all year.
I'm not touching the total in this one. Penn State is good enough overall not to give up much, but struggling enough of late to think Maryland can score. And when Penn State's games have gone over, it's largely been one-sided blowouts with minimal help from the opposition. Penn State has won the last two meetings in this series by a combined 61-14. They were all over Tagovailoa last year, allowing just 74 passing yards while sacking him eight times. That's the path here; Penn State ranks third nationally in sacks at 32. They'll get pressure behind the line often, frustrating the Maryland offense and creating a turnover or two.
Penn State at Maryland Best Bet: Penn State (-8.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Penn State at Maryland Predictions for Week 10
I'm not sure this game has tremendous watchability, but it certainly has ample intrigue, given how these two come in. I'd expect a fair home environment from the Terp faithful, and Penn State doesn't have the explosiveness needed to jump big early and take them out. Rather, I expect a slow grind on both sides for the Nittany Lions. Runs and short throws, limiting possessions and opportunity for Tagovailoa to strike downfield, and the aforementioned sacks.
The game could be questionable to in doubt early, but through a full 60 minutes, I expect the Nittany Lions to take command up front on both sides and slowly stretch this out to a double-digit victory. PENN STATE 26-13.
