College Football Picks: Texas vs. Ohio State
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If you're an old head like me, you remember marquee games like this all of the time in college football. A top-5 matchup is special, but it's a rarity. In fact, since The Associated Press' Top 25 poll began in 1936, the top two ranked teams have faced each other 53 times. It's even more rare that the matchup happens in the regular season, and yet more rare that it occurs in the opening game of the season. In the US LBM Coaches Poll, Texas vs. Ohio State is 1 vs. 2.
Welcome, officially, to the 2025 College Football season. We've had a taste with Week 0, and with Thursday and Friday games, but on the first full Saturday on Aug. 30, this is where it really feels like we're into football season. We have titanic matchups littering the schedule, with none bigger than this matchup between the SEC's Texas Longhorns and the Big Ten's Ohio State Buckeyes.
The last time Texas was involved in a 1 vs. 2 game was Jan. 7, 2010, in a BCS title game of epic proportions, with Alabama outlasting Texas 37-21 in the Rose Bowl. These institutions also met in a regular-season game Sept. 9, 2006 in a 1 vs. 2 matchup, with the Buckeyes coming away with a 24-7 win at the DKR in Austin. Prior to that, Vince Young and Texas upended USC 41-38 in an epic Rose Bowl matchup on Jan. 4, 2006. Texas is 4-2 all-time in these types of games.
For Ohio State, it hasn't played in a true 1 vs. 2 game since Jan. 7, 2008, a national title game loss to LSU in the title game. Prior to that, the Buckeyes were dusted 41-14 by Florida, also in a title game. That same season, Ohio State edged rival Michigan 42-39 in an epic regular-season finale between the top two-ranked teams in the nation. Ohio State also won 31-24 in 2OT over Miami (Fla.) in the Fiesta Bowl to win a national championship. The Buckeyes are also 4-2 all-time in these types of games, including the win over Texas.
Texas vs. Ohio State Betting Odds for Week 1
Spread: Texas +1.5 (-118 at FanDuel Sportsbook); Ohio State +1.5 (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 46.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 47.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Moneyline: Texas -110 (Caesars Sportsbook); Ohio State -105 (DraftKings)
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Texas vs. Ohio State Betting Picks for Week 1
The Longhorns will head to Ohio Stadium on Saturday, set for Big Noon Kickoff on Fox, with revenge on their minds after being ousted from the playoffs last season in their own backyard. Ohio State took care of Texas 28-14 at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington in the CFP Semifinals.
It was a game that really could have gone either way, and it was all tied up 14-14 after three quarters. The Buckeyes forged ahead 21-14 on a short scoring plunge by RB Quinshon Judkins, but the Longhorns were marching the ball down the field in the final minutes, hoping for a game-tying score to maybe force overtime, or perhaps score a touchdown and go for the decisive two-point conversion.
We'll never know.
The Buckeyes applied pressure, with EDGE Jack Sawyer getting the strip-sack, recovery, and 83-yard fumble return for a touchdown, and that secured the sixth national title in school history.
Both of these teams are, again, ranked in the top two spots, but the players heading to the NFL is rather amazing. You'd think these teams would be reloading after such key personnel losses since the last time these teams played:
Texas
- OT Kelvin Banks Jr.
- CB Jahdae Barron
- RB Jaydon Blue
- WR Isaiah Bond
- DT Vernon Broughton
- DT Alfred Collins
- QB Quinn Ewers
- WR Matthew Golden
- TE Gunnar Helm
- S Andrew Mukuba
- EDGE Barryn Sorrell
Ohio State
- WR Emeka Egbuka
- RB TreVeyon Henderson
- QB Will Howard
- OG Donovan Jackson
- RB Quinshon Judkins
- S Lathan Ransom
- EDGE Jack Sawyer
- OT Josh Simmons
- LB Cody Simon
- EDGE JT Tuimoloau
- DT Tyleik Williams
In addition to the personnel losses for the Buckeyes, the coaching ranks took a hit. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles moved to take the same position at Penn State in his native Pennsylvania. Former Bill Belichick disciple Matt Patricia takes over as the new DC. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly left as the offensive coordinator, going back to the NFL, so Buckeyes alumni and former wide receivers coach Brian Hartline will now be the OC.
While these teams played less than eight months ago, so much has changed, both in coaching and personnel on the field.
QB Arch Manning, No. 2 in our 2025 college fantasy football rankings, takes over under center full-time after seeing sprinkles of action last season in place of Ewers, when injured, while also seeing some specialty plays here and there.
Meanwhile, QB Julian Sayin won the competition in camp to be the next starter for the Scarlet and Gray. The good news for Sayin is that he'll have the luxury of throwing to Biletnikoff Award Watch list members such as TE Max Klare, WR Jeremiah Smith and WR Carnell Tate. For Texas, they have just one on that prestigious watch list, TE Jack Endries.
The venue for this game is critical when looking at a potential winner, too. Ohio State is playing at home, although it lost its most recent regular-season home game to rival Michigan despite being heavy underdogs. It did win at home in the first round of the playoffs, however, throttling another SEC team, the Tennessee Volunteers.
For what it's worth, Texas won the only previous meeting in Columbus, posting a 25-22 win Sept. 10, 2005. QB Vince Young, RB Jamaal Charles and WR Limas Sweed got the best of Heisman Trophy winner QB Troy Smith, RB Antonio Pittman and WRs Ted Ginn Jr. and Santonio Holmes that day.
We'll back the Buckeyes to get the job done at home. While there is a little bit of upheaval for the defending champs, there are still a ton of blue-chip guys coming back or coming in. The fact that Smith and Tate are there to make Sayin's life a lot easier is, well, sayin' something. It should be a smooth transition for the new field general.
While the hype train is at full force for Manning, due to his name, he might not have the same caliber of skill position players in place, at least not yet.
Texas vs. Ohio State Expert Pick: Ohio State ML (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Texas vs. Ohio State Predictions for Week 1
Well, the offenses are both expected to be elite for Texas and Ohio State. These teams, regardless of who wins this matchup, are likely to be headed for bigger and better things in December once the playoffs start. But, with a loss, nothing is guaranteed, especially if the losing side were to have its doors blown off.
Anyway, offense. We were talking offense. Manning and the Longhorns will be trying to spread the field in a chess match against DC Patricia, trying to see if he is ready. The Buckeyes will have a new look, sorta, with Hartline at the helm as OC. However, he was there last season, working closely with Smith and Tate, and it's no secret that they are the ones who will see the ball early and often, as they try to build Sayin's confidence.
Lost in all of the QB hubbub is the fact that the Buckeyes have CJ Donaldson, formerly at West Virginia, and James Peoples in the backfield. Oh, and a freshman who might sound familiar, from Villa Angela-St. Joseph High School - Bo Jackson. No, not THAT Bo, but this one knows football, and he should make the name proud. They're not related, by the way.
Look for a sluggish start for both teams, perhaps 10-7 or 7-7 into the second quarter, before we start to see these teams really blossom.
Your best bet is to go Under for the first half total, which is Under 23.5 (-128 at FanDuel Sportsbook), before settling on the Over for the entire game.
