This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Hard to believe, but it's actually the 21st year for this column. Put differently, when I started, I was 28, and now I'm 48. It's not quite Vin Scully who started calling games in 1949 (when he was 22) and stopped in 2016 (when he was 89), but for the internet era, it has to be one of the longer-running weekly pieces.
Last year was my first good one in a while. I went 141-106 (.571), something I attribute in part to creating my own lines before even looking at the market-based ones, and of course I'll continue doing that this year too. For more background into how I've fared over the years and why I overhauled my process, you can read the article I wrote for this year's NFL magazine.
For the podcast version of the article — usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
As for Week 1, I especially like the Eagles, Colts and Cardinals.
Packers +3 at Bears
The Bears were better last year, but Aaron Rodgers was playing hurt, and Mike McCarthy was the head coach. These are bitter rivals, the commute between them is short (hence the home field is worth less) and there's no travel tax for the Thursday game after nine months off. Take the points.
Packers 23 - 20