This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I'm having a bad year so far, and last week (5-9) was more of the same. I lost my best bet (Broncos) badly despite the Chiefs losing the NFL MVP in the first quarter, and my Super Contest picks went 1-4. It is what it is.
I ran an experiment last week of making my Week 7 lines before the Week 6 games, and those would have gone 10-2-2, the pushes being games where my pre-Week-6 lines matched the actual ones. That doesn't mean I should make all my picks based on early lines going forward – the results are from only one week – but it's an indicator I might be getting overly swayed by recent results.
This week I especially like the Seahawks, Jets and Packers and feel shaky about the Chargers and Colts.
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Redskins +16 at Vikings
I don't like being on the Redskins, but I made the line 13.5, and this strikes me as too many points.
Vikings 27 - 13
Giants +7 at Lions
I made this line 6.5. The Lions haven't generated a pass rush of late, just lost Kerryon Johnson and traded slot corner/safety Quandre Diggs to the Seahawks this week as they look to the future. The Giants defense played decently besides the three big runs to Chase Edmunds last week, and Daniel Jones should be better if he's not under heavy