This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't great, but it probably felt worse than it was. I was 7-2 through the early slate, 3-0 in the Super Contest and having already won my best bet. But I lost all seven remaining afternoon and night games to finish at 7-9, and for most of those I was clearly on the wrong side.
This week, I had a bad feeling writing up the Giants, Ravens, Rams and Colts picks. I won't change them – they're based on the lines I made – but the write-ups rang false to me. I especially like the Dolphins and Jaguars this week. I'll post my best bet and Super Contest picks in the comments.
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Eagles +4.5 at Packers
The Eagles are banged up, and the Packers are especially tough at home, but this line strikes me as ever-so-slightly too big. The Packers haven't lit anyone up so far this year, and the Eagles' front seven is stout. Take the points.
Packers 23 - 20
Panthers +4.5 at Texans
I suspect the Panthers are actually a good team, but that was masked by the play of a hobbled Cam Newton for two weeks. Kyle Allen is hardly Joe Montana, but with a competent QB these are roughly equal teams. Take the points.
Texans 26 - 23
Browns +7 at Ravens
I made this line 7.5, so I'm narrowly on the