This article is part of our 2020 NFL Breakout Watch series.
These rankings are based on full-PPR scoring and will tend to prioritize ceiling over floor after the first few tiers. Reliable mediocrity may have value in deeper formats, but it won't do a whole lot for fantasy managers in typical redraft leagues
Jack Doyle, for example, would arguably be ranked as a top-20 TE if we were solely discussing mean projections, but between his age, lack of speed and career mark of 9.0 yards per catch, it's hard to imagine a ceiling significantly higher than the level of production one can receive from a weekly streaming approach at tight end. Doyle isn't someone I want to draft, even in the 15th round.
On the other hand, young guys like Chris Herndon and Irv Smith face more competition for playing time, but they at least have shown some of the skills that could lead to big-time production in the right circumstances. Keep the upside factor in mind when browsing through these TE ranks.
Links for other position tiers/rankings:
And now for the tight ends...
Tier 1
1. Travis Kelce 
Kittle would be my pick if we were promised 16 games from both players, with his target share potentially creeping over 25 percent after the 49ers replaced Emmanuel Sanders with Brandon Aiyuk and then saw Deebo Samuel injure his foot. Unfortunately, Kittle's injury history makes me just a tiny bit hesitant, even though he's missed only three games in two seasons. His NFL medical list already includes a torn shoulder labrum, fractured rib cartilage and a bone spur in his ankle, whereas Kelce has largely been healthy since his rookie season. That said, I still love Kittle as a second-round pick if Kelce is already off the board. Both guys have potential to put up WR1-type stats at a position where WR3-level production is considered strong.
Tier 2
3. Mark Andrews 
4. Zach Ertz 
Ertz seems to pile up huge target numbers out of necessity rather than design, but we're now working on three straight years with at least 7.8 per game. An improved wideout group should give him more room to operate and improve his efficiency relative to last season, but it also creates some minor volume risk, which becomes more problematic if Dallas Goedert's superior blocking eventually translates to more playing time in single-TE formations (admittedly a big 'if').
Andrews isn't likely to score touchdowns on 10.2 percent of his targets again, but he could see more snaps and more passes after the Hayden Hurst trade chopped Baltimore's TE trio down to a duo. Andrews already has 10 30-yard gains in the NFL, while Ertz has 11 through seven seasons.
Tier 3
It feels a little weird giving Waller his own tier, but it was my initial inclination and also seems to be backed up by recent ADP results. Concerns regarding increased target competition push Waller behind Ertz and Andrews, but not to a point where I'd consider drafting someone like Evan Engram or Hunter Henry ahead of the Vegas tight end.
Tier 4
6. Tyler Higbee 
7. Hunter Henry 
8. Evan Engram 
9. Hayden Hurst 
10. Austin Hooper 
If I end up drafting someone from this tier, it's usually whichever of Hooper or Hurst falls the furthest. I'm not sure if Higbee will reprise his three-down role from December, but the possibility is intriguing enough to put him as the "best of the rest" once the five tight ends I actually trust have come off the board. Still, I'd rather take the value with Hurst or Hooper a few rounds later, assuming a draft shakes out in typical fashion.
Tier 5
11. T.J. Hockenson 
12. Rob Gronkowski 
13. Noah Fant 
14. Mike Gesicki 
15. Jared Cook 
Here we have three breakout candidates and two veterans trying to hang on. Gronk and Cook both have TD-scoring potential, but I worry the snaps and targets will be a major source of frustration. I'll also note that I don't see a huge difference between Tiers 4 and 5, so patience is the best approach when looking for a tight end in the middle/late rounds.
Tier 6
16. Blake Jarwin 
17. Dallas Goedert
18. Jonnu Smith 
19. Chris Herndon 
20. Irv Smith 
These are the backup-plan breakout candidates once Hurst, Hockenson, Fant and Gesicki are off the board. Jarwin might be the least talented of the group, but he also faces the softest competition for snaps.
Tier 7
21. Ian Thomas 
22. Jace Sternberger 
23. Greg Olsen 
24. Dawson Knox 
25. Eric Ebron 
26. Tyler Eifert 
27. Jack Doyle 
28. Jimmy Graham 
29. Dan Arnold 
I don't think any of these guys is particularly good — at least not at the current stages of their respective careers — but each of them appears destined to see more than half of his team's TE targets. Arnold is the surprise inclusion, drawing some spring/summer breakout hype in the darker corners of fantasy-football twitter. Count me all the way out on the Darren Waller comparisons, but I'm fine with making Arnold a YOLO pick in Round 22 or whatever.
Tier 8
30. O.J. Howard
31. Gerald Everett
32. Will Dissly
These guys would be interesting if they were in better situations to pile up snaps and targets. And maybe Howard will be traded before Week 1? Probably not, but a man can dream.
Tier 9
33. Dalton Keene 
34. Josh Oliver
35. C.J. Uzomah 
36. Kyle Rudolph
37. David Njoku
38. Jordan Akins 
39. Trey Burton
40. Darren Fells
While Keene and Oliver probably won't do much this season, the theoretical upside of the unknown is preferable to drafting a veteran who has little-to-no chance of averaging more than 35 yards per game. Let Rudolph be someone else's problem.
