OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 7 Picks

OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 7 Picks

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

OwnersBox's SuperFlex contests provide participants with a chance to roster up to two quarterbacks per lineup, opening up the opportunity for major scoring boosts and more entertaining fantasy sweat overall.

Each week of the NFL regular season, we'll break down appealing candidates in the main Sunday slate for OwnersBox's NFL SuperFlex DFS contests. 

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, KC at TEN ($8,200)

Mahomes is under consideration on any given week, but especially when the Chiefs are still trying to get their offensive ship righted and their season back on track as a whole. The 2018 NFL MVP did break out nicely in the second half of his Week 6 matchup against Washington, finishing with 25 fantasy points. Mahomes has scored up to 41 fantasy points in five of six games, and the Titans set up as a potentially generous opponent through the air.  

Tennessee comes in on a short week and has allowed 276.3 passing yards per game, along with 12 passing touchdowns. The Titans have picked off only four passes as well while allowing the seventh-highest average yards per completion (11.8). Tennessee's defense also profiles favorably for Mahomes in terms of weaknesses, as the Titans D has allowed quarterbacks to complete 16 of 29 passes for 534 yards with four touchdowns and just one pick on deep sideline routes this season.

Matt Ryan, ATL at MIA ($6,600)

Ryan should be refreshed coming off a bye week, and he'll have Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage back in the fold as well. After a poor Week 1 performance, Atlanta's offense has shown tangible signs of improvement in new head coach Arthur Smith's system. A matchup against a Dolphins team that returned from London earlier this week and is already in disarray could be just want the doctor ordered for Ryan to have big game.

The Dolphins could be down starting corners Xavien Howard (shoulder/groin) and Byron Jones (Achilles/groin) again this Sunday. Miami is already allowing 292.5 passing yards per game and an elevated 11.4 yards per completion, along with a 66.4 percent completion rate, while Ryan currently boasts a 10:3 TD:INT and has scored 38 and 29 fantasy points in his last two games.

ALSO CONSIDER: Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. DET ($7,600); Aaron Rodgers ($7,200) 

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. KC ($8,100)

Henry has been virtually unstoppable this season, and with Tennessee once again dealing with multiple hobbled receivers, the All-World running back could be set for another heavy workload in Week 7. The Chiefs have had plenty of trouble on defense, giving up 133.2 rushing yards per contest at 5.2 yards per carry overall, including 4.8 to running backs specifically. Running backs are achieving a 94 percent success rate on power runs versus the Chiefs, a figure that ranks them last in the NFL and spells trouble against Henry, who's already gaining just under 70.0 percent of his yards after first contact.

The Titans' offensive line might be without Pro Bowler Taylor Lewan after the latter suffered a head injury in the Monday night win over the Bills, but Henry has essentially been matchup-proof while running behind a group of blocks collectively facilitating 4.8 RB yards per carry. Some of the more vulnerable spots along KC's front against the run line up well with the Titans' o-line's strength, as the Chiefs are allowing 5.4 and 4.6 yards per carry on runs off left guard and center, respectively, while Tennessee is averaging 4.7 and 4.9 yards per rush when running in those areas.

Darrell Henderson, LAR vs. DET ($6,300)

Henderson has seen his fantasy production increase the past two weeks, topping out at 23 fantasy points Week 6 against the Giants. The third-year back has no fewer than 15 fantasy points in any game he's suited up for, and he's scored a rushing touchdown in four of those five contests. Henderson has also enjoyed a solid role through the air and just notched his first receiving TD versus New York last week.

The Lions have been poor against both the run and pass and will come into Sunday's matchup allowing 132.2 rushing yards per contest and 4.6 RB yards per carry. Detroit is tied for second-most rushing touchdowns allowed to RBs (6), and the Lions have allowed six receiving TDs to the position as well, bumping up Henderson's overall fantasy ceiling.

ALSO CONSIDER: Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL at MIA ($6,900)

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, GB vs. WAS ($7,700)

Adams had a "down" game versus the Bears in Week 6 with a 4-89 line on 5 targets, but he'd eclipsed 100 yards in three of the prior four contests, including a 206-yard, one-touchdown effort against the Bengals in Week 5. The Packers are back at Lambeau Field for Week 7, and the opposing secondary shapes up much friendlier matchupfor Adams. Washington's defense has been surprisingly poor against the pass, allowing an NFL-high 309.5 passing yards per contest.

Washington has also yielded the most receptions (99) and second-most receiving yards (1,275) allowed to WRs while tying for the second-most touchdown grabs (9) yielded to the position. As those robust numbers imply, Washington is basically facilitating success all over the field for QBs, giving up passer ratings well north of 100 in four out of the six passing windows. Meanwhile, Adams has facilitated passer ratings north of 90, including 119 in both the short/intermediate and deep middle areas of the field, areas where Washington has allowed QBs to complete a combined 41 of 65 passes for 573 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.

DeAndre Hopkins, ARI vs. HOU ($7,000)

Hopkins' salary is reasonable given his upside, and he's all the more appealing when considering the matchup against his old Texans squad. Not only should Hopkins have a little extra bounce in his step for this game, but Houston is also a favorable matchup independent of any other narrative. Hopkins is coming off back-to-back 20-fantasy-point tallies, his red-zone presence is as prominent as ever, and he's recorded three touchdowns in the last two games.

The Texans are giving up 249.8 passing yards per contest, along with the fourth-highest average yards per attempt (8.0) and fifth-highest average yards per completion (12.0). Receivers have enjoyed a 65.7 percent catch rate versus Houston, particularly notable when considering they're facilitating plenty of lower-percentage downfield throws as indicated by their previously cited per-attempt and per-completion figures. 

Darnell Mooney, CHI at TB ($4,800)

The Buccaneers continue to be a nightmare to run against, but multiple injuries in the secondary have made Tampa Bay a much less intimidating matchup through the air. The Bears know they have an uphill climb ahead of them by going on the road against the defending champs, and the ground attack is partly compromised by the ongoing absence of David Montgomery (IR-knee). It all adds up to a potentially busy day for Justin Fields and his receivers. Mooney's usage and profile makes him an appealing value option at wideout.

The Bucs are giving up the third-most passing yards per home game (315.3), along with a 71.7 percent completion rate at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay has also given up plenty of production in the short right passing window, the sight of 17 of Mooney's 39 targets – the Bucs have seen 91 targets in that part of the field which has resulted in an 81.3 percent completion clip for 605 yards and four touchdowns.

ALSO CONSIDER: Tyreek Hill, KC at TEN ($8,000); Deebo Samuel, SF vs. IND ($6,500)

Tight Ends

Darren Waller, LVR vs. PHI ($6,200)

Waller's production hasn't been quite up to his usual standards this season, meaning any favorable matchup makes for a particularly opportune time to jump on him in tournaments. The opposing Eagles have demonstrated plenty of generosity to tight ends and are tied with multiple teams for most touchdowns allowed (5) to the position. Waller is still averaging a solid 5.5 receptions and 63.0 yards on 8.8 targets per contest, and with Philly having faced the second-fewest targets (94) and having allowed the fourth-fewest receptions (64) to receivers, Waller could be in line for more action than usual.

Zach Ertz, ARI vs. HOU ($4,600)

Ertz has now had several practices to acclimate to the Cardinals' offense, and he could be set for a significant role in his first game in an Arizona uniform. Maxx Williams' season-ending knee injury brought Ertz to Arizona in the first place, but there's further attrition at the position at the moment with Darrell Daniels (hamstring) has missed the first two practices of the week. The Texans are the perfect team for Ertz to get acclimated against, as Lovie Smith's Cover-2 defense is notorious for leaving open zones down the middle for tight ends and has already facilitated a 35-397-5 line to the position through six games. Ertz should be raring to go after being utilized in a part-time role with the Eagles over the first six games.

ALSO CONSIDER: C.J. Uzomah, CIN at BAL ($4,100)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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