Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Overvalued and Undervalued TEs

Get expert insight from RotoWire on tight end values with ADP analysis to spot overvalued and undervalued fantasy football players.
Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Overvalued and Undervalued TEs
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Not all tight ends are being drafted appropriately; some are rising too fast due to preseason hype, while others are falling despite proven roles. Knowing the difference between hype and value can give you an edge on draft day, especially at a position where volume and red-zone work are everything.

To stay sharp throughout the summer, keep tabs on RotoWire's fantasy football articles and consult the NFL depth charts as camp battles shift. Here's a breakdown of five mispriced tight ends in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: TE8

The buzz began after Tyler Warren caught three balls in the preseason opener, quickly vaulting him near the TE8 range in fantasy football ADP.

He's a talented first-round pick, but the Colts' quarterback situation is a problem. Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson bring volatility, and the offense is likely to lean on Jonathan Taylor, who averaged 25 carries over the final five games of 2024.

With low pass volume and Michael Pittman already owning short-area targets, Warren may not see the volume needed to live up to his ADP. It's a bet on talent, not role, and that's dangerous at TE8.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – ADP: TE10

Injuries remain part of David Njoku's profile, but he's far from fragile. He averaged 1.7 missed games from 2021-2023 before last year's six-game absence.

The upside? Massive. In his final five games with Joe Flacco back in 2023, Njoku averaged 10.3 targets, 93 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns.

Not all tight ends are being drafted appropriately; some are rising too fast due to preseason hype, while others are falling despite proven roles. Knowing the difference between hype and value can give you an edge on draft day, especially at a position where volume and red-zone work are everything.

To stay sharp throughout the summer, keep tabs on RotoWire's fantasy football articles and consult the NFL depth charts as camp battles shift. Here's a breakdown of five mispriced tight ends in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: TE8

The buzz began after Tyler Warren caught three balls in the preseason opener, quickly vaulting him near the TE8 range in fantasy football ADP.

He's a talented first-round pick, but the Colts' quarterback situation is a problem. Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson bring volatility, and the offense is likely to lean on Jonathan Taylor, who averaged 25 carries over the final five games of 2024.

With low pass volume and Michael Pittman already owning short-area targets, Warren may not see the volume needed to live up to his ADP. It's a bet on talent, not role, and that's dangerous at TE8.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – ADP: TE10

Injuries remain part of David Njoku's profile, but he's far from fragile. He averaged 1.7 missed games from 2021-2023 before last year's six-game absence.

The upside? Massive. In his final five games with Joe Flacco back in 2023, Njoku averaged 10.3 targets, 93 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns. If Flacco starts, Njoku has weekly TE1 overall upside.

Even if Flacco only plays half the season, Njoku remains weaponized in Kevin Stefanski's offense. His fantasy football ADP offers a stable floor with real difference-making potential.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers – ADP: TE11

Tucker Kraft turned 70 targets into 707 yards and seven scores last year, but usage trends are flashing red flags.

Jordan Love's pass attempts fell from 34 per game to 24 after the Week 10 bye, and Kraft's targets dropped by 20 percent in that same stretch as the Packers leaned on the run.

He remains efficient, but TE11 requires weekly reliability. Green Bay's offensive philosophy may cap his volume, making him one of the sneakier fantasy football overvalued players this draft season.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys – ADP: TE12

Jake Ferguson's 2024 season was forgettable: 494 yards and zero touchdowns. However, context matters; Dak Prescott missed over half the season, and Ferguson cratered with Cooper Rush under center.

With Prescott healthy, Ferguson posted at least 70 yards in three of seven games. The Cowboys' weak rushing attack and shaky defense should keep them in pass-heavy scripts.

Even as the third option behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Ferguson benefits from Prescott's long-standing trust in tight ends. Drafted as TE12, he has top-six upside in the right game environments.

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders – ADP: TE19

Zach Ertz surprised everyone with 654 yards and seven touchdowns in 2024, thanks largely to defenses focusing on Jayden Daniels' deep ball and leaving short zones open.

But that dynamic likely changes with Deebo Samuel now in Washington. Why throw short to a 35-year-old tight end when Samuel can break tackles and create after the catch?

Ertz thrived in a perfect storm last year. That storm has passed, and TE19 feels optimistic in an offense that no longer needs him to be the safety valve.

Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP Values at Tight End

Tight end is one of the trickiest positions to get right in fantasy football. Missing on an early pick can leave your roster unbalanced, while a late-round hit can give you a weekly edge. In 2025 drafts, fantasy football ADP doesn't always reflect true upside or usage risk. By fading overvalued names and targeting tight ends with real paths to volume and red-zone looks, you'll put your roster in a much stronger position.

Looking for more mispriced player analysis? Check this out: 

Stay ahead of late-summer changes by tracking fantasy football news, and dig deeper into each team's hierarchy using NFL depth charts. The tight end position is thin, but smart targeting at ADP is still one of the clearest paths to advantage.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Coventry was a finalist for the FSWA football writer of the year in 2022. He started playing fantasy football in 1994 and won a national contest in 1996. He also nabbed five top-50 finishes in national contests from 2008 to 2012 before turning his attention to DFS. He's been an industry analyst since 2007, though he joined RotoWire in 2016. A published author, Coventry wrote a book about relationships, "The Secret of Life", in 2013.
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