IDP Analysis: ADP Values

Jim Coventry looks at ADP data to find values for individual defensive players in your draft including Vikings defensive lineman Danielle Hunter.
IDP Analysis: ADP Values
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Obviously, ADP can never account for what will actually happen in individual fantasy drafts. However, especially in IDP leagues, we can merge ADP results with the Rotowire player rankings that can be found in our draft kit to create a list of players to target as potential values. The end result should help fantasy owners to get at least one player from each tier while allowing positional flexibility during other rounds of the draft.

Defensive Line

Drafting a top-10 player: The most likely player who can be acquired cheaply is Jason Pierre-Paul, who we have ranked at No. 9, but he's typically going off the board as the 18th defensive lineman. The next best value is Myles Garrett, who's being drafted as the ninth lineman, though we rank him at No. 4. Finally, we like Danielle Hunter as the seventh-best lineman, though his positional ADP is at No. 10.

Selecting a lineman from 11 to 20: The best value in this group is Brandon Graham, our No. 16 lineman, but he's typically on the board after 30 players have been selected at the position. Also, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph fall in at Nos.17 and 20, but usually are still available after 25 linemen have been chosen.
Value options for deeper leagues in order: Linval Joseph, Kawann Short, Emmanuel Ogbah, Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, and Muhammad Wilkerson are all ranked in our top-31, yet all are typically available once roughly 40 defensive

Obviously, ADP can never account for what will actually happen in individual fantasy drafts. However, especially in IDP leagues, we can merge ADP results with the Rotowire player rankings that can be found in our draft kit to create a list of players to target as potential values. The end result should help fantasy owners to get at least one player from each tier while allowing positional flexibility during other rounds of the draft.

Defensive Line

Drafting a top-10 player: The most likely player who can be acquired cheaply is Jason Pierre-Paul, who we have ranked at No. 9, but he's typically going off the board as the 18th defensive lineman. The next best value is Myles Garrett, who's being drafted as the ninth lineman, though we rank him at No. 4. Finally, we like Danielle Hunter as the seventh-best lineman, though his positional ADP is at No. 10.

Selecting a lineman from 11 to 20: The best value in this group is Brandon Graham, our No. 16 lineman, but he's typically on the board after 30 players have been selected at the position. Also, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph fall in at Nos.17 and 20, but usually are still available after 25 linemen have been chosen.
Value options for deeper leagues in order: Linval Joseph, Kawann Short, Emmanuel Ogbah, Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, and Muhammad Wilkerson are all ranked in our top-31, yet all are typically available once roughly 40 defensive linemen have been drafted.

Linebacker

Drafting a top-10 player: There's an excellent chance to notch one of our top-three linebackers, which is where we rank both Zach Brown and Christian Kirksey while their positional ADP is currently at Nos.nine and 17 respectively. It's also not out of the realm of possibility to get both of them, especially in leagues that require multiple linebackers or a flex position.

Selecting a lineman from 11 to 20: The most likely players to be available in this range are our Nos. 13 and 14 LBs, namely Benardrick McKinney and K.J. Wright, both of whom are typically on the board after 30 linebackers have been drafted. Options in the same range, but with a lesser potential discount, are Jarrad Davis, Myles Jack, Preston Brown, Demario Davis and Haason Reddick.

Other value options: Jaylon Smith and Antonio Morrison often go undrafted, though we have them ranked 21st and 28th respectively. Other LBs in our top-30 who are also drafted much later than our ranks are Deone Bucannon, Kiko Alonso and Avery Williamson.

Value options for deeper leagues: Listed just outside of our top-30, Tahir Whitehead and Wesley Woodyard are often available once 40 linebackers have been selected.

Defensive Back

Drafting a top-10 player: Amazingly, Derwin James and Marcus Williams come in at numbers four and nine in our rankings, but both are frequently drafted outside the top-30 defensive backs. Just as was the case with linebackers, it's very possible to snag both of these top options in leagues that require multiple defensive backs to be rostered.

Selecting a defensive back from 11 to 20: The best values in this range are John Johnson, Josh Jones, Malik Hooker and Devin McCourty, each of whom often go undrafted in many leagues. Also, Justin Simmons and Eric Weddle, currently ranked at Nos.12 and 15 respectively, are typically available after 30 defensive backs have been drafted.

Other value options: Owners who still need to fill out the roster with additional defensive backs can target DeShazor Everett, Jeff Heath and Da'Norris Searcy, all of whom are ranked in our top-30, but often go undrafted.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jim knows fantasy players have plenty of options when it comes to fantasy experts. His advice is simple: ask for receipts. He's been playing fantasy football since 1994, covering it professionally since 2006 and was the FSWA Football Writer of the Year in 2022. Jim's been with RotoWire and on SiriusXM since 2016. Through that time, he's accomplished one of the rarest feats in the industry -- a 2x King's Classic Triple Crown Champion, a 14-team, three-flex format engineered to strip out luck and stack the field with the sharpest minds in the game. Jim is successful because he studies the NFL like a scout and turns the same data everyone has access to into an edge. The track record isn't hype. It's receipts. Jim will help you win your share of leagues.
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