Underdog NFL Pick'em Week 1
After a long wait through the summer, the NFL season is finally set to kick off. We're also back with our weekly Pick'Em selections on Underdog Fantasy. For those new to the site and/or the concept, Underdog is the home of best ball drafts and Pick'Em games. Our focus will be on the latter, and the concept is pretty straightforward. Underdog sets a stat prediction for most relevant skill-position players and even some defensive players, and users simply have to predict whether the player will go higher or lower than the projected stat.
As a quick background, there are Standard and Flex Pick 'Em contests. The minimum number of selections required is two, which pays out three times the entry amount. The payout rises with each additional selection, with the maximum being eight selections for 80 times payout on the entry. There is also a flex contest, that allows one at least one incorrect selection but pays out at a lesser rate.
As we progress through the season, we can use stats such as fantasy points allowed by position and offensive pace to help guide our choices, but things will look a bit different in Week 1 as we primarily rely on projections and our understanding of offensive and defensive units around the league.
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NFL Pick'Em: Higher
Javonte Williams at Philadelphia – higher than 8.5 1Q rushing yards
It would feel anticlimactic not to have a selection for the kickoff game of the year, and luckily, we have some good value. By all accounts, and the Cowboys' depth chart, Williams is the starting back in Dallas entering Week 1. He's almost certain to see the first carry of the game and will likely serve as the workhorse for at least the first few drives. The game script and his effectiveness, could change the Cowboys' plan at the position as the contest progresses, but expect plenty of Williams early on.
The Eagles are still very likely to have a strong defense, but it is worth noting that Milton Williams moved on, while Nakobe Dean is on PUP with a knee injury.
Stefon Diggs vs. Las Vegas – higher than 4.5 receptions
It's hard to believe that a Pete Carroll defense will be bad, but the secondary has the chance to be truly miserable. Darien Porter, a third-round rookie, and Eric Stokes, who has allowed a 98.5 quarterback rating when targeted, are projected to be the outside corners.
The Patriots' passing game is questionable, but Diggs is the unquestioned top pass catcher. Taking the more on the reception total isn't projecting a big game, just that he will be Drake Maye's favorite target.
Xavier Legette at Jacksonville – higher than 36.5 receiving yards
The Panthers' target distribution has narrowed in the past week or so, with Adam Thielen being traded and Jalen Coker landing on injured reserve. Hunter Renfrow has a chance to emerge in the offense, but Tetairoa McMillan and Legette should be the primary playmakers. Counting on Legette after his production during his rookie season makes this selection uncomfortable, but things broke his way with recent news.
Josh Downs vs. Miami – higher than 45.5 receiving yards
The Dolphins' secondary might be the worst projected secondary in Week 1, with Jack Jones the closest player they have resembling a true number-one corner. Downs will serve as the primary slot receiver for the Colts, where fifth-round rookie Josh Marshall is projected to start. Daniel Jones introduces some risk, but this is a good matchup to attack.
De'Von Achane at Indianapolis – higher than 29.5 receiving yards
Achane returned to practice Monday and is on track to play Sunday, which is a good starting point. Meanwhile, Miami has discussed its plans to implement an even quicker passing attack. With the departure of Jonnu Smith, Achane could become an even bigger part of the Dolphins' passing game.
The matchup is an even bigger plus. The Colts will likely use their safeties to bracket the combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, putting significant stress on Indianapolis's linebacker corps. That's not a good position for them to be in, considering Jaylon Carlies (ankle) is sidelined, and Cameron McGrone and Jon Bachie – both special-teams players – are the primary candidates to fill in for him.
NFL Pick'Em: Lower
Cameron Ward at Denver – Lower than 189.5 passing yards
Ward is likely to experience plenty of success in his pro career, but he is going to be in a tough spot in Week 1. Denver is one of the most hyped defenses entering the season, and that looks to be justified. Expect Tennessee to struggle to maintain drives, and Ward's lack of reliable pass catchers to lead to a long offensive day.
Justin Fields vs. Pittsburgh – Lower than 175.5 passing yards
The Jets-Steelers matchup is the game with a projected total number of points under 40 points, and it's pretty straightforward to project both teams to run their offense through the rushing attack. Add in the Steelers' pass rush and improved secondary, and we aren't likely to see many long drives or explosive plays from either offense.
Jerome Ford vs. Cincinnati– Lower than 12.5 rushing attempts
There were previous reports that Quinshon Judkins would suit up for this matchup, but that looks impossible considering he wasn't signed as of Wednesday afternoon. That will consolidate carries between Ford and rookie Dylan Sampson, but the Browns are one of the biggest underdogs.
Kyler Murray at New Orleans – Lower than 223.5 passing yards
We can follow the opposite logic for the Arizona offense than we did in Cleveland. Arizona is one of the biggest road favorites, and thus, we should project that they can rely on their improved defense and run game to come away with a win. Murray isn't known for his efficiency, he's averaged more than 7.1 yards per attempt in a season only once and has been under 7.0 yards in two of the last three seasons.
of the weekend and match the Saints as the biggest home underdogs on the slate. Ford has never profiled as a workhorse back, and the context of the game script likely means there won't be a high number of carries to go around.
