Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher" and "lower" picks on Chalkboard.
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Higher
Deebo Samuel 
vs. NYG - higher than 3.5 receptions
There are a few reasons to like the newly acquired Deebo Samuel on Sunday. The Commanders had Terry McLaurin sit out all summer and lost Dyami Brown to free agency. They face a Giants defense that boasts one of the best lines in the league. By most accounts, Samuel had a great camp and seems to have his burst back. I think they'll get him involved early, and he could benefit from shorter passes to mitigate the pressure.
David Njoku 
vs. CIN - higher than 4.5 receptions
Jerry Jeudy vs. CIN - higher than 4.5 receptions
Last season, a matchup against the Bengals' Swiss-cheese defense would be as good as it gets. They ranked near bottom in almost every major category and not much changed over the offseason. Njoku finished last season with three consecutive games of at least receptions and it's a positive for all the Browns pass-catchers that Joe Flacco was named starting QB over one of the developing rookies. It looks like a great spot for Jerry Jeudy as well, whose number also sits at 4.5. Higher than 59.5 receiving yards is also enticing considering he's a downfield threat and the Browns are likely to be playing catch-up.
Rashid Shaheed 
vs. ARI - higher than 38.5 receiving yards
First, this number is lower than I've seen other places. Second, Shaheed has home run upside and can go higher than 36.5 with one catch. Third, he eclipsed 70 yards in four of five games last season before getting injured. The Cardinals' defense is average at best and the Saints should be playing from behind. The opportunity will be there. I'm not sure if Spencer Rattler can capitalize but he had a decent preseason after looking awful last year.
Lower
Travis Hunter 
vs. CAR - lower than 4.5 receptions
I'm willing to embrace some uncertainty. This is nothing against Hunter, who's an exceptional talent. I'm just concerned about his Week 1 usage because he was banged up in preseason and is also expected to play a little defense. The Jaguars paid Dyami Brown and have stud No 1 Brian Thomas, so it isn't like they need to force it early with Hunter. I chose receptions because he's explosive enough to beat a yardage prop with one touch.
Calvin Ridley 
at DEN - lower than 4.5 receptions or 47.5 receiving yards
This would already be a very difficult matchup for Ridley against one of the league's top corners in Patrick Surtain. It's also the debut of first overall pick Cam Ward and traveling to altitude in Denver will be anything but ideal. The Broncos defense is fierce and I don't expect Ward have much time in the pocket to look downfield for Ridley. I'm bullish on Ward and Ridley for the future, just not this Sunday.
Kyler Murray 
at NO - lower than 5.5 rushing attempts
Murray started 17 games last season and had more than 5.5 rushing attempts in just five. He doesn't want to run if he doesn't need to and Sunday's matchup against the Saints is a soft one. The Cardinals are sizable road favorites and I'm not expecting Murray to be under much pressure.
Justice Hill 
vs. BUF - lower than 2.5 rushing attempts
The play on Hill here is twofold. For one, Baltimore have a tough matchup against a good defense so I'd imagine they'll want just about every handoff they call to go in Derrick Henry's hands. We can't expect garbage time stuff either. On the other hand, Keaton Mitchell is back in the fold and had an exciting preseason. While I expect Hill to get the third down work and catch a couple passes, I'm worried that Mitchell may steal any extra rushing attempts.
