Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher" and "lower" picks on Chalkboard.
A note about this week's article that will help going forward: I chose these numbers on Wednesday morning and most had changed considerably by late afternoon when I came back to write about them. Some will change again before Sunday. Numbers will get stale all season. Be as early as you can. I'll try to do the same with regards to getting this article up.
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Higher
Austin Ekeler 
at GB - higher than 2.5 receptions
Ekeler led Commanders RBs in snaps last week and I'd expect that again on Thursday night against Green Bay. The Packers added vaunted pass-rusher Micah Parsons and their defense wreaked havoc on Jarod Goff last Sunday. Jahmyr Gibbs caught 10 passes, most of them dump offs, for 31 yards. Ekeler is coming off three catches against the Giants and could be even more involved against the Packers. Parsons and the pass-rush will force Daniels to get the ball out quicker.
Travis Etienne 
at CIN - higher than 75.5 rushing + receiving yards
I liked this number before Tank Bigsby was traded to the Eagles on Monday. Despite all the slander he gets from the fantasy community, Etienne is talented runner and pass-catcher. He proved it again last week with 16 carries for 146 yards and three catches for 13 yards. I realize this came against the hapless Panthers but the Bengals defense hasn't been much better. If you'd rather leave the receiving yards out, higher than 56.5 rushing yards looks good too.
Etienne's numbers were set at 72.5 and 54.5 Wednesday morning.
JuJu Smith-Schuster 
vs. PHI - higher than 2.5 receptions
With Xavier Worthy not expected to play and Travis Kelce a shell of his former self, Smith-Schuster has become a safety blanket for Patrick Mahomes in times of need. This is another one of those times as the Chiefs WR core is decimated. Smith-Schuster caught all five of his targets last week while Hollywood Brown drew a whopping 16. There will be more than enough to go around as long as Worthy is out and Rashee Rice remains suspended.
Garrett Wilson 
vs. BUF - higher than 59.5 receiving yards
Before we witnessed the instant classic between Buffalo and Baltimore on Sunday night, the Jets offense had been the story of Week 1. Almost nobody gave them a chance against the Steelers defense in a matchup that had a paltry 37-point total. Instead, Justin Fields didn't put a foot or throw wrong in what may have been the best game of his career. News of Wilson's demise was greatly exagerated after he finished with seven catches on nine targets for 95 yards and a score. He'll need another big game if they're going to keep pace with the Bills on Sunday. We just saw Zay Flowers explode against them and Fields has proved himself capable of facilitating.
Wilson's receiving yards number was 56.5 on Wednesday morning.
Joe Burrow 
vs. JAX - higher than 276.5 passing yards
This is an obvious bounce back spot for Burrow and the Bengals offense after he threw for just 113 yards against Cleveland. The Browns have a stellar defense and not much on offense, however. Almost the opposite of Jacksonville and the Bengals-Jags matchup has the highest total of the week to show for it. Burrow was the favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards coming into the season and a back and forth matchup is just what he needs to get back on track.
Lower
Jacory Croskey-Merritt at GB - lower than 37.5 rushing yards
When I started writing this article on Wednesday morning, Croskey-Merritt's rushing yards number was set at 42.5 and it's already come down five yards. It pays to get in early! This is a play based on two factors. First, he got the best possible runout last week when Christian Rodriguez was a surprise inactive. Second, he totaled just 10 carries despite a perfect game script and broke a long one in the fourth to finish with 82 yards. Thursday's matchup against Green Bay is much tougher and what if Rodriguez is active this time? Worth the gamble, in my opinion.
Dallas Goedert 
at KC - lower than 4.5 receptions
Goedert has had more than 4.5 receptions just twice in his last eight games dating back to last season. This is rematch of the Super Bowl when Goedert had two catches on two targets. Now there is a narrative surrounding the WRs after A.J. Brown drew only one target last week (DeVonta Smith drew three). I think we see Jalen Hurts make a point to get them involved this week and that would likely come at the expense of Goedert's production.
Zach Charbonnet 
at PIT - lower than 45.5 rushing yards
It's only been one week and many have decided that Charbonnet has eclipsed Kenneth Walker as Seattle's lead back after outsnapping him 30-21 and seeing 12 attempts to Walker's 10. I'm not saying that he has or hasn't but I think there's some recency bias in the numbers this week. The Seahawks have a tough matchup on the road against a stout defense. We can beat this number two ways, either the running game gets shut down or Walker sees a larger share of the carries.
Charbonnet's rushing yards number was 47.5 on Wednesday morning.
