This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Betting Preview
Golfers head to Japan for the fourth installment of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, which is being held at Narashino Country Club outside Tokyo for the third time. Just 78 players will tee it up, and the $11 million prize pool is the largest during the fall portion of the schedule. World No. 6 Xander Schauffele is the favorite at 8-1 odds and is part of a strong field that consists of six of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Last year, Hideki Matsuyama, at 16-1, won decisively in his home country, defeating Cameron Tringale and Brendan Steele by five strokes.
Narashino CC plays as a par-70 at just over 7,000 yards. It differs a bit from a typical par-70 layout with five par-3s and three par-5s. Unfortunately, no ShotLink data is available from the prior two years the event was played here, so we don't have any Strokes Gained data to draw from. Considering Matsuyama and Tiger Woods are previous winners here, though, we know iron play is certainly a key factor. Scoring hasn't been particularly low on this course, as only eight players have finished better than 10-under-par over the two tournaments. Don't be fooled by the length of the course, as half the par-4s play over 475 yards.
All in all, I'm targeting players that excel from tee to green, as it will take a strong all-around game to compete this week.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.
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Trending in Tee-to-Green
The following five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Xander Schauffele: 1.62
- Tom Kim: 1.54
- Sungjae Im: 1.51
- Corey Conners: 1.13
- Collin Morikawa: 0.95
Schauffele is making his first start of the 2022-23 season, fresh off a hot finish to the previous campaign that included back-to-back wins at the Travelers Championship and Scottish Open as well as a T3 at the BMW Championship. He's had mixed results in his two appearances here, posting a T28 and a T10, but is still the the man to beat in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Another player navigating his way successfully from tee to green is Conners, who we find a little further down the betting board at 22-1. He continues to be one of the best ball strikers on Tour and, on a per-round basis, gained 1.3 strokes off the tee and on approach combined last season. He's looking to bounce back from a disappointing Presidents Cup and will be in position to do that at a place where he tied for sixth in his lone appearance.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Bets: Outright Picks
Cameron Young (16-1)
I'm not sure if golf fans appreciate how well Young has played this year. Sure, he has not won, but since The Masters he has made 9-of-11 cuts while posting five top-3 finishes. He'll be making his first start at this event but should be an excellent course fit thanks to his superb driving and above-average short game.
Tommy Fleetwood (35-1)
It's difficult to overlook Fleetwood in a small field, particularly with him having to do a bit less traveling than many of the PGA Tour players who will be on hand. Fleetwood is one of a few players who have played this course twice, and he finished T7 here last year.
Mito Pereira (35-1)
Pereira is in good form, as he held the 36-hole lead at the Shriners Children's Open before ultimately settling for a share of fourth. He has come close to picking up his first win numerous times and is emerging as one of the best iron players in the world.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Bets: Other Wagers
Wyndham Clark
Top-10 Finish: 6-1
Coming off a top-10 pick with Matthew NeSmith last week, I'll look to keep the momentum going with Clark, whose length should allow him to take advantage of both the long par-4s and the par-5s at Narashino. His inconsistency with the driver can make him a frustrating player to bet on, so I like to target him for top-10s on courses where distance is a key factor.
Patrick Rodgers
Top-10 Finish: 7-1
Rodgers is long overdue for a top-10, with his last one coming at the Mexico Open in April. He hasn't played bad golf but simply hasn't been able to turn his made cuts into high finishes. He's still one of the longer hitters on Tour, is a solid putter and is capable of getting hot on a course that should fit his eye.
Mark Hubbard
Top-5 Finish: 10-1
I love the value on this wager, as Hubbard had three top-5 results over his last eight starts. He tends to stay under the radar due to his lack of length, but he's really solid in all other facets of the game, including his iron play. He ranked 20th in SG: Approach last season.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Tom Hoge (-115) over Si Woo Kim
Both players are coming off top-10 finishes at the Shriners event, but I'm leaning toward Hoge, who is the better iron player and putter of the two and also had a better result here last year. Although Kim's consistency improved last season, I still view him as a risky play in one-on-one bets.
Lucas Herbert (-110) over K.H. Lee
Herbert has shown good form over the last few months, recording top-15 results at the Open Championship and BMW Championship, a top-5 at the Italian Open and a T20 last week in Las Vegas. He has a distance advantage on Lee and is also better in the short game.
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