This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Olympic Men's Golf Betting Preview
The PGA Tour gets a week off as the Olympics takes center stage with 60 golfers across 32 countries battling for a medal at Le Golf National in Paris, France. Most known for hosting the Ryder Cup in 2018, the venue has also been the site for its National Open on the DP World Tour since 2002 (no event in 2020 and 2021). 2020 Olympic gold medalist Xander Schauffele will look to defend the honor and is also coming off a stellar performance at Royal Troon to take home the Claret Jug, while Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +350. Note that only 20 of the top-50 players in the OWGR are in the field.
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Course Overview
Par 71, 7,174 yards
These are the average rankings of the tournament champions at Le Golf National since 2018.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 44.5
- SG: Approach: 6.3
- SG: Around-the-Green: 61.0
- SG: Putting: 19.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.0
- Driving Distance: 53.0
- Driving Accuracy: 35.5
Fortunately, the DP World Tour tracks strokes gained data, so we have some stats to draw from. Most golf fans remember the 2018 Ryder Cup in which the Europeans cruised to victory over the U.S. squad, and the setup included tight fairways and thick rough that was much different than the Americans were used to seeing stateside. That's backed up in the stats above as we see that accuracy is a premium over distance (only three par-4s over 460 yards) and that iron play is a big factor, with the winner ranking among the top-5 in SG: Approach the last three years. Like a lot of European courses, the venue has plenty of links tendencies with minimal trees and pot bunkers. There is also plenty of danger lurking with water in play on half of the holes. Mainly, I'll be looking to target accurate drivers, good iron players (especially from 150-200 yards) and those that have played well on links courses.
Incredible Iron Players
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.84
- Xander Schauffele: 1.14
- Collin Morikawa: 0.92
- Ludvig Aberg: 0.79
- Shane Lowry: 0.79
A lot of attention is drawn to Scheffler's improvement with his putting since switching to a mallet, and rightfully so, but the dominance with his iron play can't be understated. Not only is he gaining 0.7 more strokes than Schauffele over the last 20 rounds, he's gaining a whopping 1.49 shots on approach per round this season - 0.6 shots more than Tom Hoge in second place. Another player that's shown great form with his irons is Lowry, who has gained over a stroke per round on approach in six of his last 12 tournaments. He's posted top-10s in four of those six tournaments, including each of the last two. Lowry is tied for the ninth choice on the board at 25-1 odds.
Olympic Men's Golf Bets: Outright Picks
Viktor Hovland (25-1)
This will be Hovland's first appearance at Le Golf National, but when you drive the ball long and straight on top of hitting your irons well, is there a course that doesn't fit your game? In a small field that lacks depth, he's undervalued at this price.
Tom Kim (25-1)
Kim is gaining shots in every strokes gained category this season and tends to be more of a factor at courses where precision is more critical than distance. He finished in a share for sixth at Le Golf National last year.
Min Woo Lee (50-1)
Lee may not be the ideal course fit as he's fourth in driving distance this year, but being long is never a disadvantage. With two worldwide wins and a pair of runner-up finishes since October, the ceiling remains high for the 26-year-old.
Olympic Men's Golf Bets: Placement Wagers
Erik van Rooyen
Top-5 Finish: 18-1
van Rooyen has a pair of top-20s over three Open Championship appearances, so he's shown he can play well in Europe. He's coming off a poor showing at the 3M Open, but I'm assuming he was looking ahead to his Olympic debut.
Thomas Detry
Top-10 Finish: 14-5
This will be Detry's sixth trip to the venue, so he knows the course about as well as anyone in the field. The Belgian is well-versed on links courses and has a couple top-5s in big events this year, so he won't be overwhelmed by the occasion.
Abraham Ancer
Top-10 Finish: 4-1
Ancer's strengths are keeping the ball in the fairway and being an above average iron player, making him a good course fit here. He won a LIV event this year, and we've seen long shots work their way into contention at the Olympics before.
Olympic Men's Golf Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Rory McIlroy (-115) over Jon Rahm
It has been a busy little stretch here for Rahm, who will be playing for a fourth consecutive week after winning the LIV United Kingdom event last week. I prefer McIlroy, who has finished third and fourth in two events at Le Golf National. It should be a good bounce back spot for him, and he finished T4 at the Olympics in 2020.
Hideki Matsuyama (-120) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick continues to struggle and outside of a hot putting week that led to a top-5 at the Memorial, he hasn't posted a top-20 since the beginning of April. I'll side with Matsuyama who I view as the much better golfer of the two, and he has three top-10s during the aforementioned stretch.
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