This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Rocket Classic Betting Preview
Following a pair of marquee events, the PGA Tour is going to have a difficult time replicating the dramatic finish that saw Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley overcome Tommy Fleetwood in the quest for his first Tour victory last week. Hopefully, we'll have some theatrics in the Midwest as the action heads to Detroit Golf Club for this week's Rocket Classic. Collin Morikawa headlines as the tournament favorite at 12-1 odds and is one of five players in the top-25 of the OWGR teeing-it-up for this 156-player non-signature event. With only six tournament left in the regular season, players are pushing to make the top-70 of the FedExCup Standings to retain their card and qualify for the playoffs. Last year, longshot Cam Davis (80-1) bested Aaron Rai, Min Woo Lee, Akshay Bhatia and Davis Thompson by one stroke for his second win at the event.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 72, 7,370 yards
These are the average rankings of Rocket Classic winners over the last five years:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 18.8
- SG: Approach: 15.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 11.8
- SG: Putting: 13.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.4
- Driving Distance: 20.4
- Driving Accuracy: 31.4
Detroit GC is hosting the event for a seventh year now and it can best be described as a birdie-fest considering the champions have reached 23-under on four occasions. When you think of the traditional bomb-and-gouge type golf course, this venue certainly fits that narrative. Players don't have much to worry about off the tee as water only comes into play on one hole (the approach shot on the par-5 14th) and the fairways have generous landing areas, averaging 36 yards wide. Overall, targeting players that rank well in driving distance and birdie or better percentage is going to be a great place to start. I'm also looking for players that hit their wedges close, as we'll see a lot of approach shots from inside of 125 yards. Players that can use their distance to attack the four par-5s, which are some of the easiest on Tour, will have a big advantage as well.
Motown Monsters
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Detroit Golf Club since 2020:
- Taylor Moore: 67.5
- Cameron Young: 67.5
- Cam Davis: 68.1
- Stephan Jaeger: 68.3
- Adam Hadwin: 68.5
Moore and Young are tied at the top of the list, although Moore has played here three times to Young's two. All three of Moore's trips to the Motor City have resulted in top-10s, in which he's ranked in the top-5 in SG: Putting in back-to-back years. The fourth-year Tour pro hasn't posted a top-10 since February but does have two top-25s over his last four starts. I like his value at 75-1 odds. Young is the fifth choice on the board at 25-1 given his recent top-5 showings in Canada and Oakmont. Meanwhile, defending champion Davis comes in with identical 80-1 odds as last year and has finished no worse than T17 over his last four appearances here. Something will have to give between that and his recent play, however, as he's missed the cut in seven of his last 13 starts with only two top-25s.
Best Ball-Strikers
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds:
- Ben Griffin: 1.62
- Keegan Bradley: 1.52
- Emiliano Grillo: 1.47
- Chris Gotterup: 1.44
- Ryan Gerard: 1.42
Outside of Scottie Scheffler, I don't think there's another golfer in the world that's been better than Griffin over the last six weeks. Across his last five tournaments he's finished no worse than T14 and is up to sixth in the FedExCup Standings. While his results here are modest (T33-T31), he should take a big step forward at the venue given his recent level and strong all-around play. Another player that has been in good form lately, albeit much more under the radar at 60-1 odds is Grillo. He's posted four consecutive top-25 finishes and impressively led the field in SG: Approach twice during that stretch. His around the green play has held him back but that shouldn't be as big of a factor at a place where players hit greens in regulation at a high percentage.
Rocket Classic Bets: Outright Picks
Patrick Cantlay (16-1)
Coming off an outright win with Keegan Bradley last week, I'll start off with Cantlay, who is looking to end his nearly three-year winless drought at a place where he shared runner-up honors in 2022. Cantlay's ball-striking numbers stand out: 26th in SG: Off-the-tee, 14th on approach and third in GIR.
Davis Thompson (35-1)
Thompson played well during the Midwest Swing last year, finishing one shot back of Davis here a year ago, so he clearly likes this part of the schedule against lesser competition. He's coming off a T25 result in Connecticut last week in which he ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Matt Fitzpatrick (40-1)
Fitzpatrick looked like a shell of his old self for much of the year but has started to trend back in the right direction with three top-25s in his last five starts including a T8 at the PGA Championship. I expect him to step up and contend against a weaker field than he's used to playing against.
Rocket Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Michael Thorbjornsen (11-2)
Thorbjornsen has a lot of volatility in his results with two top-5s and six missed cuts this year. This looks like a good spot for a spike week considering he's fifth in driving distance and 20th in birdie or better percentage this year. That will fit well at Detroit Golf Club.
Ricky Castillo (15-2)
Castillo has had a decent rookie season with three top-15s, most notably with a T5 at the Byron Nelson last month – another birdie fest type venue. The 24-year-old is 23rd in SG: Tee-to-green and capable of contending if he gets the putter rolling.
Sami Valimaki (10-1)
Valimaki has played well this year, especially over the last three months for someone with these long of odds. He's posted four top-20s in his last seven events and is 79th in the FedExCup Standings. Valimaki is one of the better putters on Tour and also ranks 27th in SG: Approach.
Rocket Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Rasmus Hojgaard (-110) over Thorbjorn Olesen
We've heard a lot of Ryder Cup talk with Bradley's win Sunday, and here we have a matchup between two players that are looking to make their respective squads. Hojgaard is seventh on the European points list, and he fits the venue well as a long hitter that does everything well. He'll be making his event debut, while Olesen badly missed the cut here last year.
Alex Smalley (-115) over Alex Noren
A matchup between two players that are solid across the board, I'm siding with Smalley who has the distance advantage on this driver heavy course. He's a good matchups target in general, as he's posted seven top-20s this year and ranked seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green in his most recent start in Canada. Noren's struggled with his ball striking the last few events, so I'm comfortable fading him here.
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