This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to Orlando this week for the annual tribute to Arnold Palmer. It's Palmer's association with this event that really brings 'em in, and there are plenty of big names in the field this week. Many will use this week's event as a final tune-up before the Players, which is next week. Although there are a lot of big names in the field this week, there is a clear-cut favorite, but we'll get to that later.
One golfer present again this week is Tommy Fleetwood, who was in great position to win last week, but made a terrible error with his approach on the 72nd hole. Fleetwood seems destined to win a few times on the PGA Tour, but these near misses have a way of piling up on a guy.
Course history is not an issue this week, as we have it as far as the eye can see. The list of champions is dominated by big names, but there have been a few surprises the last couple decades, which means both the chalk and the dogs are in play this week.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando
Last Year: Francesco Molinari shot a final-round 64 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Matthew Fitzpatrick.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (5-1)
I'm not sure I've seen odds this low since Tiger was in his prime. Dustin Johnson was 6-1 earlier in the year at Pebble and
The PGA Tour heads to Orlando this week for the annual tribute to Arnold Palmer. It's Palmer's association with this event that really brings 'em in, and there are plenty of big names in the field this week. Many will use this week's event as a final tune-up before the Players, which is next week. Although there are a lot of big names in the field this week, there is a clear-cut favorite, but we'll get to that later.
One golfer present again this week is Tommy Fleetwood, who was in great position to win last week, but made a terrible error with his approach on the 72nd hole. Fleetwood seems destined to win a few times on the PGA Tour, but these near misses have a way of piling up on a guy.
Course history is not an issue this week, as we have it as far as the eye can see. The list of champions is dominated by big names, but there have been a few surprises the last couple decades, which means both the chalk and the dogs are in play this week.
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando
Last Year: Francesco Molinari shot a final-round 64 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Matthew Fitzpatrick.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (5-1)
I'm not sure I've seen odds this low since Tiger was in his prime. Dustin Johnson was 6-1 earlier in the year at Pebble and that didn't work out because, well, this is golf and being the favorite rarely results in a win. That said, McIlroy's prospects look mighty fine this week. McIlroy won this event in 2018 and has finished no worse than T6 in his last three starts here.
Tommy Fleetwood (14-1)
Fleetwood was the second-favorite last week at the Honda Classic and nearly came through but, as mentioned, faltered late in the final round and ended up solo third. We don't know if there will be any ill effects from blowing a great opportunity, but what we do know is that his game is in great shape. Fleetwood posted a T3 here last year and has finished no worse than T26 in his three starts at this event.
Bryson DeChambeau (20-1)
Speaking of blowing a great chance to win. The last time we saw DeChambeau, he was cruising to victory at the WGC Mexico Championship, only to have victory snatched from his hands by Patrick Reed. As is the case with Fleetwood, we know DeChambeau's game is in good shape. Unlike Fleetwood, there aren't concerns about a carryover from a tough loss.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Patrick Reed (25-1)
For the people not pleased with his recent success, but it's safe to say Reed just doesn't care. In fact, he seems to thrive in the villain role, and nothing would be more villainous than winning Arnie's tournament this week. Reed doesn't have a strong track record at this event, but he did post a T7 here in 2018, and we know his form is as good as it gets.
Jason Day (30-1)
Day hasn't been doing much winning lately, but there was a brief moment a few weeks ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, where he looked like the guy that was once one of the best players in the world. While Day may never recapture that form, he appears to have enough left to make a run or two and this could be a spot where he makes a run. Day won this event in 2016 and has finished inside the top 25 in four of his last five starts here.
Henrik Stenson (40-1)
Stenson has done just about everything here with the exception of winning. He has a runner-up, a T3, T4, T5 and a T8 — and that's just his last seven starts here. The concern with Stenson is his form. He hasn't played on the PGA Tour this season and his European Tour results leave something to be desired. But he has long odds this week and a proven track record both here and elsewhere on the PGA Tour.
LONGSHOTS
Byeong-Hun An (50-1)
If not for an opening-round 76 last week at the Honda Classic, we might be talking about An instead of Sungjae Im. An is trending the right way as his T4 last week was his second top-10 in his three most recent starts. His track record here is promising as well as he's posted top-15s in his two most recent starts at this event.
Kevin Na (100-1)
Na is not a golfer you want if you are looking for a guaranteed result this week, but if you are looking for a longshot with a chance to win, then he might be your guy. His recent results are much like his track record here — all over the place. He's missed two cuts in his last four starts on the PGA Tour, but he's also posted a T9 and a T14. His track record here? Four MCs in 11 starts and three top-10s.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - For the first time this season, I'm considering pulling the trigger on McIlroy. Yes, you might want to save him for a major, but as I always say, when is his best chance to win? This week, when he's 5-1, or during a major, when he's going to be 10-1 at best and has to face all the best golfers in the world ... including a motivated Brooks Koepka.
Moderately Owned Pick: Henrik Stenson - Stenson comes with plenty of risk this week, but only in that he might not play well, not that you'd regret using him in this spot. I expect plenty of OAD players to pull the trigger on Stenson this week because of his track record here. Form is an issue, of course, but he loves playing here and that might be enough to kickstart his season.
Lightly Owned Pick: Kevin Na - I mentioned earlier that if you need Na to play well this week, then he's not your guy, but if you are in a position to take a chance, then he's a good option. Na has the upside to win, and with his track record at this event, you never know. Na's best finish here was a runner-up in 2010.
Buyer Beware: Justin Rose - Rose has a pretty strong record at this event, which could be tempting to some OAD players, but his game is so far off that he shouldn't be considered in a OAD format until he proves that he can at least contend on the weekend. Rose's best result this year on the PGA Tour was a T56 at the Genesis Invitational.
Last Week: Billy Horschel (T42) $24,850; Season - $2,186,475
This Week: Rory McIlroy - A few years ago I switched to using golfers when they had the best chance to win, and for the most part, it's paid off. I get a chance to test that theory this week, as McIlroy obviously holds plenty of value later in the season but might never have as much value as he does this week.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Rory McIlroy ($12,200)/Byeong-Hun An ($10,300)/Carlos Ortiz ($8,700)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Lee Westwood (T4) - Streak - 7
This Week: Byeong-Hun An - While McIlroy is in play for OAD's this week, he carries much more value in a Survivor format as there are only a few golfers you can trust to make the cut at a given major. With that in mind, I'm saving McIrloy and using An as he's made the cut in four of five starts here and his game is in good shape.
