This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
HERO WORLD CHALLENGE
Purse: $3.5M
Winner's Share: $1M
FedEx Cup Points: 0
Location: New Providence, the Bahamas
Course: Albany Golf Course
Yardage: 7,449
Par: 72
2022 champion: Viktor Hovland
Tournament Preview
For the first time in four years, Christmas will come early for golf fans: Tiger Woods will be playing in his Hero World Challenge. Now, before you start opening presents, be mindful that last year turned out to be a big bah-humbug with nothing under the tree after Woods pulled out on that Monday citing plantar fasciitis. But this time, based on various reports and visual evidence, it seems all systems are a go. In fact, the Hero could be the first leg of a mini-Tiger Swing this month, with Woods also slated to play in the PNC Challenge with son Charlie from Dec. 14-17. And then on Dec. 30, Woods turns 48. Oh my, where did the time go?
Woods has not played in a tournament since withdrawing from the Masters in April on a rainy Saturday because of that same plantar fasciitis. Soon after, he underwent ankle surgery. Woods recently told the Associated Press that his ankle is pain-free. He was also on site at his El Cardonal at Diamante design for the World Wide Technology Championship last month, when Stewart Cink volunteered that Woods had been practicing and was in "go mode." Then Woods caddied (and walked) 54 holes for Charlie at the Notah Begay III Junior Golf National Championship. Back in September, Woods' TGR Live Twitter feed posted him hitting balls.
— TGR Live (@TGRLiveEvents) October 7, 2023
So that's a lot of "evidence" that Woods will actually tee it up this week.
He has played a mere five times since his automobile accident in February 2021. He made the cut last year at his other tournament, the Genesis Invitational, shooting two rounds in the 60s. At the PNC, Woods can use a cart and it's a scramble format, but at the Hero, it's a 72-hole walk. The good news is, Albany is about as flat as a course can be. Wood finished fourth when he last played the Hero back in 2019. He has said he'd like to play 5-to-6 times in 2024, which surely would include Riviera and the four majors.
As much as we'd like to continue waxing poetic about Woods, there is a golf tournament and 19 other golfers to discuss. It's always an A-list field that turns out for Woods, even with a total purse that's almost the same as the winner's share in Signature events. Six of the top 10 in the world rankings and 15 of the top 25 are on hand, led by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and probably soon-to-be No. 1 Viktor Hovland. The latter won the past two editions of this event and the former finished runner-up on both occasions. The only golfers outside the top 25 in the field besides Woods are his good pal Justin Thomas, Lucas Glover, Justin Rose and -- in a wonderful gesture by Woods -- Will Zalatoris, who has not played since withdrawing from the Masters and undergoing season-ending back surgery.
The biggest names not in attendance (non-LIV division) are Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. Neither Rahm or Cantlay (or Cantlay's hat) played last year, either.
The Hero is a quirky event, which never makes lineup construction easy. It's fair to wonder how hard everyone actually tries to win in this island paradise, especially just a week after Thanksgiving. Oh, maybe once the tournament gets going the competitive spirit kicks in, but it's not like preparing for a major or even a regular PGA Tour event. Often, golfers return from weeks or even months off to play. It has always been a bit of a cash grab. But more than cash, it has been an OWGR points grab. Yes, this is an OWGR-sanctioned event, something that no doubt rankles the LIV bots on Twitter. We're not a fan of very valuable OWGR points being handed out to the top golfers just for showing up -- the rich getting richer -- but at least with the OWGR system recently being overhauled, this small-field tournament will not generate anywhere near the number of points it used to. While the Hero is listed under the PGA Tour's schedule page, it is not a Tour event and there are no FedEx Cup points distributed.
Since there are only 20 participants, let's mention the others not named above, in order of world ranking: Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler and Sepp Straka.
Four guys have never played this event before: Harman, Clark, Glover and Zalatoris. That shouldn't hurt them at all. Hovland won in his debut in 2021, as did Rahm in 2018.
The Ernie Els design is a rare layout with five par-5s and five par-3s. There are only three par-4s on the front-nine. Weird, huh? Albany features wide fairways and Bermudagrass greens averaging only 4,500 square feet. The golfers have talked about the tight lies around the greens, so getting on the putting surface from the fairway is especially important. But it's no easy task with the small greens. There are three water hazards and, often, plenty of wind. Three of the par-5s are over 590 yards and four of the par-3s are about 190-plus. Yet the scores are always low, with 18-under winning it four of the past six times (Hovland shot 16-under last year). The tournament record at Albany is 25-under, set by Bubba Watson in 2015. The golfers have talked about having to do the bulk of the scoring on seven holes -- the five par-5s and two of the par-4s, the semi-drivable 366-yard 7th and the definitely drivable 307-yard 14th. Hovland eagled the 14th three times in 2021 and once more last year.
Focusing on lineup construction, there are a few things to consider. First, with only 20 golfers, every guy will have at least moderate ownership. Don't go crazy trying to find a hidden guy -- no one is hidden this week. Some guys have been inactive for much of the fall, others have been busy. Ten of the 20 guys haven't played over the past month or more. But even that shouldn't be too much of a consideration. Really, at least 15 guys have at least a shot at winning this tournament. And it won't take much for anyone, even Woods, to climb the leaderboard with so few guys to pass.
As for the weather -- duh, it's the Bahamas, it'll be beautiful. Highs will be in the low 80s all four days and there's only a small chance of rain, notably on Friday. As always, it'll be all about the wind, right now it's forecast to blow in the low double digits.
Key Stats to Winning at Albany
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-5 Scoring
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage
Past Champions
2022 - Viktor Hovland (Albany)
2021 - Viktor Hovland (Albany)
2020 - None
2019 - Henrik Stenson (Albany)
2018 - Jon Rahm (Albany)
2017 - Rickie Fowler (Albany)
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama (Albany)
2015 - Bubba Watson (Albany)
2014 - Jordan Spieth
2013 - Zach Johnson
Champion's Profile
Hovland in 2021, Stenson, Fowler and Matsuyama all shot 18-under; Hovland shot 16-under last year and Rahm shot 20-under in 2018. Nine of Hovland's 16 shots under par came on the par-5s a year ago, and then he eagled the short par-4 14th one day. He shot only a combined 7-under on the par-5s in 2021, but he eagled the 14th three times. Stenson totaled 19 birdies and two eagles and played the par-5s in 8-under. But that's nothing compared to what happened the year before. Rahm notched 25 birdies -- more than one-third of the holes -- and played the par-5s in 13-under. To summarize, the 20 total par-5s go a long way in determining who wins. There is no rough at Albany, but wayward drives will land the golfers in the native area. Sometimes that's trouble, but oftentimes it's just fine. With a field this small, any golfer on form who takes this week seriously has a chance to win. Unfamiliarity with the Albany course should not be a big issue for the four newcomers.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Viktor Hovland - $10,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +400)
Hovland was the hottest player in golf at the end of the PGA Tour playoffs, and then he starred in the Ryder Cup. He even finished co-runner-up two weeks ago at the DP World Tour Championship. He's the two-time defending champion, so it's safe to say Hovland comes to win.
Scottie Scheffler - $10,700 (+450)
Scheffler hasn't played in a tournament since the TOUR Championship -- unless you want to include a little thing called the Ryder Cup. Even that was long ago now. But Scheffler has played the Hero twice and was second twice. It's clear he takes the week as seriously as anyone.
Cameron Young - $8,700 (+1600)
When we think of par-5 scoring in this field, Young is the first name that comes to mind. He ranked fifth on Tour in birdie or better percentage on par-5s this past season and 10th in BOB overall. And in our model, he ranks first in par-5 scoring over his past 24 rounds. Young could also drive one if not both of the two short par-4s and is among the most aggressive players on Tour. He finished third here last year in his Hero debut. With a lot of U.S. Ryder Cuppers playing, the feeling here is that that could give Young (and other Cup snubs, see below) some extra added incentive.
Justin Thomas - $8,400 (+1400)
Thomas famously missed the PGA Tour playoffs. But he's been active since and has largely played well. He tied for fifth in the FedEx Cup Fall-opening Fortinet, then had a positive Ryder Cup. A few weeks back he finished fourth at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa. Thomas has played the past five editions of the Hero and finished fifth in the past three.
Tier 2 Values
Wyndham Clark - $7,300 (+2200)
Clark might be the best putter in this field. Plus one of the biggest hitters. And, despite being the U.S. Open champ, does anyone consider Clark among the very best players in the world? The feeling is that he still feels he has something prove to the sport's elite. Clark has been semi-active in the fall. After the Ryder Cup, he played the Andalucia Masters on the DP World Tour in October (T56) and then two weeks ago in Japan at the Dunlop Phoenix tournament (T37).
Justin Rose - $6,900 (+3500)
Rose, along with Glover, was one of the two late additions to the field. It was a great gift from Woods, as Rose -- ranked 39th in the OWGR -- will get some free world-ranking points to help him stay in the top 50 longer. Not that he couldn't stay inside all on his own, because that's how he got there in the first place. Rose has played in the Ryder Cup and three DP World Tour events since the playoffs ended. He's played the Hero most years in the past decade and has finished top-10 in his past four Albany starts.
Tiger Woods - $6,100 (+8000)
Woods has the second lowest price in DraftKings DFS contests and the longest odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook. We're not saying Woods looks at these types of things, but we do know he comes to play every time out. He'd like nothing more than to show the world he still has something left. We saw shades of greatness at Riviera and Augusta in his last two starts. We're not saying Woods will win, but could you see a top-10? That would justify his price.
Lucas Glover - $6,000 (+5000)
In a 20-man field, why not pick the cheapest guy? If you want to play Hovland and Scheffler together, which would've paid off quite nicely the past two years, you're gonna have to dip down low to fill out your lineup. And like we said about Young, Glover has something to prove this week. During the fall, he didn't putt as well as he did during his August surge, but it was still better than he traditionally has putted. And the ball striking is always there.
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