This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
TEXAS OPEN
Purse: $7.5M
Winner's Share: $1.35M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Course: TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course)
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72
2018 champion: Andrew Landry
Tournament Preview
The Texas Open has led quite a life. And has a lot of stories to tell. That tends to be the case when you're 97 years old. The tournament has been played in January, February, March, April, May, September, October and even November. The PGA Tour has bounced it around like ungrateful children grudgingly having to take turns caring for an aging parent. When the tournament approached its senior years, it was pushed aside into the dreaded Fall Season for decades, stuck with lousy field after lousy field. But now, on the cusp of turning 100, the Texas Open is getting a little respect. For only the second time since its inception in 1922, the tournament has been placed in the coveted spot the week before the Masters. (To be clear, this would not have happened without Valero, the title sponsor since 2002, re-upping for 10 years. But why ruin a good narrative.)
There is so much history steeped in this tournament. It's the third oldest event in the United States and the sixth oldest in the world, behind the Open Championship, the U.S. Open, the PGA Championship and the old Western (now BMW) and Canadian Opens. And no tournament has been played longer in just one place, San Antonio, like this one. Its champions read like a list of the highest order of Hall of Fame inductees: Hagen, Hogan, Nelson, Snead, Palmer and Trevino, to name a handful. The only other time the Texas Open was played the week before the Masters was actually recently, in 2013, when the latest and greatest champion was none other than ... um ... Martin Laird. (Hey, Rory McIlroy finished second, if that helps.)
After that big buildup, we have to unfortunately report that the field STILL STINKS. Wait, what? Yes, apparently even when given the cushy slot the week before the Masters, your course must have some similarities to Augusta, like Houston did. The Oaks really has none, though this year they made an effort by widening the fairways and cutting the rough, according to the PGA Tour website. Maybe they'll get better players next year and beyond, but for now, it's tough sledding down around San Antone.
The 144-man field features just one golfer in the top-10 OWGR, and that's Rickie Fowler. There are only two more in the top-25, Tony Finau and Matt Kuchar. Then comes Texas native son Jordan Spieth, now down to No. 32 and among just nine in the top-50 on hand. But at the other end, more than 25 percent of the field consists of recent Web.com grads. No matter who you're targeting this week, focus on guys with strong tee-to-green games. We'll delve deeper into that in the key stats and Champion's Profile below.
The course is, in a word, long. The Greg Norman design with help from Sergio Garcia features towering oak trees that line the fairways, lots of native lands that can lead to very crooked numbers and some enormous bunkers, two of which are bigger than many PGA Tour greens. Kevin Na infamously found a native area on the par-4, 474-yard 9th hole in 2011, and he eventually walked off with a 16. Many of the putting surfaces have undulations and multiple levels, which will be challenging for a field devoid of many top putters. The Oaks also boasts three extremely long and tough par-5s. The 591-yard 18th was the fourth hardest par-5 on Tour last year, and the 604-yard eighth was close behind. No. 2 is 602 yards.
Weather-wise, right now the forecast is calling for hot and humid conditions -- into the 80s every day. There's also a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday, so you may want to adjust your lineup accordingly as it gets closer to the lock. As always, the wind is the big consideration in Texas, though right now it doesn't look too bad. That can change on a dime.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
Ball striking/Strokes gained: tee to green
Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
Putting average/strokes gained putting
Par-5 efficiency 550-600 Yards
Past Champions
2018 - Andrew Landry
2017 - Kevin Chappell
2016 - Charley Hoffman
2015 - Jimmy Walker
2014 - Steven Bowditch
2013 - Martin Laird
2012 - Ben Curtis
2011 - Brendan Steele
2010 - Adam Scott
2009 - Zach Johnson
Champion's Profile
The tournament has been played at TPC San Antonio since 2010. Until last year, the winning score was always between 8- and 14-under-par. Last year, Landry broke through for his maiden PGA Tour win at 17-under. And with the announced changes of widening the fairways and trimming the rough, the winning score could be even lower this time around. The past two years, the top-5 finishes all finished in the top-15 in strokes gained: tee to green. Every winner since 2010 has landed in the top-15 in putting average. That said, there are few great putters on hand this week. Still, all they have to do is putt well in relation to the field.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Rickie Fowler - $11,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
The field is so weak that two guys stand head and shoulders above the other 142: Fowler and Matt Kuchar. Fowler has never played the tournament before, but he's well acquainted with windy conditions and the general area, having spent his college days at Oklahoma State. He is ranked 26th in ball striking, though only 66th in strokes gained: tee to green. But Fowler has been elite on the greens, seventh in SG putting. He's also ranked 10th in par-5 550-600.
Matt Kuchar - $11,200 (16-1)
We're not a fan of what Kuchar did to the caddie or to Sergio Garcia, so we won't be rostering him or rooting for him. But there's no denying he's been playing his best golf in years this season with two wins, a runner-up last week at the Match Play and a tie for fourth. He's ranked first on Tour in greens in regulation, fourth in ball striking and 14th in strokes gained: tee to green. We must nore that this has not been Kuchar's best event, with just one top-10 in seven starts, and that was five years ago.
Tony Finau - $10,800 (14-1)
Finau is still ranked 15th in the world, but his game has not been quite as good as it was last year. He's still getting lots of top-25s, but last season many of those were top-10s. He has only one top-10 this season, and that was five months ago. Still, in this field, he's hard to ignore. Plus, he finished third here two years ago. Finau is ranked 40th in strokes gained: tee to green, but he was top-15 in the two prior seasons.
Tier 2 Values
Byeong Hun An - $9,200 (30-1)
An tied for 10th at Bay Hill and just missed a top-25 at THE PLAYERS. He is such a bad putter that we want to look away, but he's so strong elsewhere: sixth in strokes gained: tee to green, 11th in SG off the tee and an amazing second in SG around the green. Really, if he could simply putt horribly instead of disastrously, he could win this week.
Ryan Moore - $9,100 (40-1)
Moore has played TPC San Antonio only three times. He's never finished worse than T18. That was two years ago, and he followed it up with a T7 last year. Moore is ranked top-40 in both stroke gained: approach and tee to green, top-50 in SG putting and, most interestingly, 27th in SG total. Last month, he tied for 20th at Sawgrass.
Abraham Ancer - $8,900 (30-1)
This is a steep price to pay, but Ancer has really been coming on. He has six top-25s this season, including a tie for 12th at THE PLAYERS. Ancer is of Mexican descent, but he's a native Texan who attended the University of Oklahoma, and he'll be treating this week importantly. He's top-45 in both strokes gained: approach and tee to green. Ancer tied for 58th here last year and was T42 in 2015, but his tee-to-green numbers are now vastly improved, tied for 17th on Tour in ball striking.
Haotong Li - $8,600 (40-1)
Li made it out of round-robin play last week at the Match Play (in Texas). He tied for 19th at the WGC-Mexico (which is near Texas). Really, we're very interested to see how Li performs. He's making a concerted effort to play more PGA Tour events. He doesn't have enough measured rounds to check his stats, but on the European Tour, Li is ranked 14th in greens in regulation, second in strokes gained: around the green and eighth in strokes gained: putting.
Ryan Palmer - $8,400 (50-1)
Palmer has been all over the place this season. He has three top-10s, three missed cuts and three in between. He tied for fourth at the Honda last month. Until missing the cut here last year, Palmer had strung together three straight top-6s. He is ranked an elite sixth on Tour in greens in regulation, lus 36th in ball striking.
Tier 3 Values
J.B. Holmes - $8,000 (50-1)
In his past four stroke-play events, Holmes has missed three cuts and a victory at Riviera. Weird. And not exactly a boost of confidence. But Holmes has done well here through the years, with three top-16s dating back to 2010. That includes a T13 in 2016. Holmes is no longer among the biggest hitters, at least statistically, but his accuracy is improving. He's 28th in greens in regulation, plus top-60 in both strokes gained: approach and tee to green.
Sung Kang - $7,700 (60-1)
We're not sure how Kang is doing it, but he's made six straight cuts, three of them top-20s, including a tie for sixth at Bay Hill. We say we're not sure, because a look at Kang's strokes-gained numbers show weakness at almost every turn. But his best one is the most important one: 63rd in strokes gained: total. Kang missed the cut here last year but tied for sixth in 2017.
Bud Cauley - $7,400 (80-1)
Cauley has three top-15s in 12 starts, most recently at the Honda, as he's made a good return from that season-ending car accident last year. Cauley is ranked first on Tour in strokes gained: around the green. While that's not in our key stats, that type of short game is a big asset on any course. He tied for 10th here two years ago and, going back a few years, had another top-20.
Trey Mullinax - $7,400 (80-1)
After missing three straight cuts to start the season, Mullinax has made 9-of-10. He really likes to let fly off the tee, and that helped him finish tied for second here last year, his best career showing. With the fairways supposedly even wider this time around, Mullinax is probably licking his chops. Despite horrible accuracy off the tee, he's ranked 46th in strokes gained: tee to green. Mullinax is also ranked 32nd in par-5 550-600.
Long-Shot Values
Chris Kirk - $7,100 (100-1)
Kirk is bound to be a popular pick, as he tied for eighth a year ago, his third top-15 here in the past four years. But he's had a really bad season through 14 starts. His one good showing came just last month at Bay Hill, where he tied for 15th. Kirk is ranked 50th in strokes gained: approach and 65th in SG tee to green, very good numbers in this field.
Scott Stallings - $7,000 (80-1)
Stallings has a T3 (Pebble) and a T9 (Valspar) in his past five starts. He's been doing it with his irons. Stallings is ranked 26th on Tour in strokes gained: approach and 59th in SG tee to green. In five prior visits to TPC San Antonio, he's had a pair of top-15s, including a T13 three years ago.
Julian Etulain - $6,700 (Field, 8-1)
The 30-year-old Argentine has made 8-of-9 cuts in 2019, with a top-25 at the difficult Copperhead track (Etulain just missed another top-25 last week in the Dominican Republic). He's getting it done with his short game, ranking 21st in scrambling and 16th in strokes gained: putting. His other SG numbers are pretty abysmal -- except for one. That would be strokes gained: total, and Etulain is an impressive 68th. He played this event two years ago, tying for 75th.
Adam Svensson - $6,300 (Field, 8-1)
The 25-year-old Canadian Web.com grad has not had a good rookie season to date. He's missed the cut in more than half his starts with just one top-25. But for a guy doing so poorly, he interestingly checks off a couple of our boxes for this week: Svensson is ranked T44 in strokes gained: approach and 60th in SG tee to green. Plus, he's 59th in par-5 550-600, which is strange for a guy who's not a long hitter. Two of Svensson's made cuts were in tough fields at Torrey Pines and the Honda.
