This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Mexico Open at Vidanta
Course: Vidanta Vallarta (7,456 yards, par 71)
Purse: $7,700,000
Winner: $1,386,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
World No. 1 and Masters champion Jon Rahm will return to action this week to defend his Mexico Open title. Last year's Mexico Open was the first time this national open has been contested on the PGA Tour. The prior 18 years it has been held on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica, Korn Ferry Tour, or European Challenge Tour. This is the second of two PGA Tour events this season held in Mexico with Russell Henley winning the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba last fall.
Joining Rahm in the field this week is World No. 16 Tony Finau who finished just a shot back of the Spaniard a year ago. Danish phenom Nicolai Hojgaard will also be teeing it up again on the PGA Tour after accepting special temporary membership and could potentially join Rahm on the European Ryder Cup team in Italy. Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari, Jimmy Walker, and Lucas Glover make up the other major champions in what is a pretty weak field. Many of the top stars in the game are taking a much needed week off to rest with a now designated Wells Fargo Championship next week and the PGA Championship a couple weeks after that on tap.
With most of the top players not teeing it up this week, it creates an opportunity for some of those players to gain valuable FedExCup points and improve their positioning to try to get inside the Top 50 and be exempt into all the designated events next season. Those teeing it up in Puerto Vallarta will also be treated with incredible weather this week. Temperatures will top out in the low-80's with no threat of precipitation. Winds will be steady in the 10-15 mph range throughout the four tournament rounds.
Recent Champions
2022 - Jon Rahm (-17)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Driving Distance
- Birdie Average
Champion's Profile
Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 at nearly 7,500 yards at sea level on paspalum. With that in mind, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that the top 10 here last year featured bombers like Rahm, Finau, Cameron Champ, Aaron Wise and Patrick Rodgers. There is enough room for those bombers to feel comfortable and give them shorter second shots into these large greens. Given that there are five par-3's and Vidanta had the longest average proximity on Tour last season, iron play is going to be the critical factor. The course is very exposed and players will have to deal with the full extent of the breezes on their approach shots.
This is a course that lends itself to a wide variety of scoring. There are four par-5's that are all potentially reachable in addition to the 297-yard par-4 7th hole. There are also four holes that ranked inside the top-50 hardest holes on the PGA Tour last season with those being par-4's at 8, 10, and 16, as well as the par-3 17th. Water also will come into play on over half the holes at Vidanta, which can easily derail a really strong round. For DFS purposes this is certainly a week to target players that rank highly in birdie average.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Tony Finau ($12,300)
I think Finau is really going to be lost in the shuffle with people paying up for Rahm ($12,600) or starting at the lower $11K range. Finau has finished worse than T31 just once in 12 starts this season. He also leads the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and is fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Finau is terrific on par-5s and is fourth on Tour in birdie average. This seems like a great place for Finau to finish one spot higher than last year and get back to the winning ways he showed in 2022.
Wyndham Clark ($11,600)
Clark has been knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour win with top-six finishes in three of his last four starts, including a third at the Zurich Classic with Beau Hossler after holding the 54-hole lead. Vidanta sets up supremely well for Clark who is one of the longest hitters on Tour and has taken a massive step forward with his iron play. Clark has made the seventh-most birdies on Tour this season and the third-most eagles.
Patrick Rodgers ($11,200)
Rodgers is another bomber who comes in to the Mexico Open in great form with a fifth place finish in San Antonio and a T19 at the RBC Heritage. Rodgers is 41st in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in total birdies, and 19th in par-5 scoring average this season. He is a player who is very capable of getting hot with the putter and posting a lot of red numbers. Rodgers also posted a 10th-place finish at Vidanta last year.
Emiliano Grillo ($10,200)
Grillo has traditionally been a pretty up-and-down player, but he has found his groove of late, making the cut in five of his last six starts, including a T7 a couple weeks ago at the RBC Heritage. Grillo is a stellar ball striker, ranking 38th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 53rd in GIR percentage. He has struggled with the putter throughout much of his career, but something clicks when he gets on these paspalum resort surfaces. Grillo was T33 here last year.
Longer Shots with Value
Will Gordon ($9,800)
Something has got to click here at some point with Gordon. The 26-year-old has all the physical gifts to be a terrific player but is still sitting on just two top-25s this season. The good news is Gordon has only missed five cuts and he is going to a course that should fit his game. Gordon ranks 28th in driving distance and eighth in GIR percentage. His short game weaknesses should be mitigated by these large greens, which will be unfamiliar for most of the field.
Joseph Bramlett ($9,300)
Bramlett is having a bit of a career resurgence this season at age 35. He has gone 12-for-17 with five top-30 finishes. He has that ideal game for Vidanta at 24th in driving distance, 46th in SG: Approach and 33rd in GIR percentage. Bramlett excels at getting off to quick starts with the 12th-best first round scoring average and ranks 55th on Tour in birdie average.
Michael Kim ($8,800)
Kim has hit his stride with made cuts in seven of his last eight starts. That stretch includes four top-26 finishes, one of which was a fifth at the Puerto Rico Open, another resort course on paspalum grass. Kim drives it long enough to compete at just under 300 yards on average. He has also taken a big step forward in his approach game over these last couple months and the putter has also woken up. This is a good spot to deploy the former PGA Tour winner.
Carson Young ($7,600)
Young missed the cut in nine of his first 11 starts this season, but has made the weekend in four of his last six individual events. That includes a strong T19 showing in a great field at Hilton Head and a T3 at Puerto Rico, a course that presented a lot of similar challenges as Vidanta. Young has been very strong over that recent stretch off the tee and ranks 44th on the season in proximity to the hole. He probably has the most upside of anyone in the $7K range in this field.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is a week where it is going to be very difficult to go 6-for-6 because the field has so many players who lack consistency. I honestly think the best way to do it at Vidanta, where being able to carry the ball really far is going to be such a big advantage, is just to load up on bombers who have made north of 75 percent of their cuts over the last couple months. If you can find some of those players who also have been really solid with their iron play, that should be the formula for success. I'm not really placing too much emphasis on short game or putting numbers this week, and I'm also not concerned about how anyone faired a week ago at the team event in New Orleans. I'm not against taking the best player in the world, Rahm, even at $12,600, but I prefer a more balanced build this week.
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