This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
TOUR Championship
Course: East Lake Golf Club (7,490 yards, par 71)
Purse: $100,000,000
Winner: $25,000,000 and FedExCup
Tournament Preview
The TOUR Championship is the most lucrative event of the season with the top-30 in the FedExCup standings battling for $100 million in bonus money, including a $25 million prize for the winner, up from $18 million last year. The first 12 editions of the TOUR Championship in in the FedExCup era just went by cumulative points earned over the regular season and playoff events to determine the winner of the FedExCup. In other words, a player could win the FedExCup without winning the TOUR Championship or visa versa. In 2019 the PGA Tour decided to go with the Starting Strokes format which was determined by a players standing in the FedExCup entering the TOUR Championship. The No. 1 seed would start the 72-hole TOUR Championship event at 10-under-par with the No. 2 seed at eight-under, No. 3 at seven-under, No. 4 at six-under, No. 5 at five-under, No. 6-10 at four-under, No. 11-15 at three-under, No. 16-20 at two-under, No. 21-25 at one-under and No. 26-30 at even-par. Going to this format eliminated all the point projection that was very difficult to follow for viewers. Now it is clear where each player stands in the FedExCup because it is just that player's position in the TOUR Championship.
On the other hand, there are some players who think it's a little unfair to have an entire season come down to one tournament. Scottie Scheffler for example has held a significant lead in the FedExCup standings virtually all season. If he were to have to WD with an injury he would be credited with a 30th place finish in the final FedExCup standings and go from earning $25 million to just $550,000. In the end, TV does run everything in sports and if they want to get their Game 7 moment in golf, they are going to get it, whether that does affect the legitimacy of the competition or not. Many people have floated out different ideas for how to spice up the TOUR Championship and decide the FedExCup, but I personally don't see the Tour going away from this current format for awhile because it's best for TV.
My ideal format for the TOUR Championship would be something to properly reward players for how good of a season they have had and be easier for the average viewer to follow. I think you keep the starting strokes the same based on the FedExCup standings, but then players should get bonus strokes added based on wins during the season. A regular PGA Tour win would give you an additional starting stroke, a Signature Event win would give you two additional starting strokes and a major win, PLAYERS Championship win or win in the first two legs of the playoffs would give a player three additional starting strokes for the TOUR Championship. Here's what the top five would look like under that format to begin the TOUR Championship:
- Scottie Scheffler: -24
- Xander Schauffele: -14
- Hideki Matsuyama: -12
- Keegan Bradley: -9
- Rory McIlroy: -7
This would be devastating for viewership this season, but people also have to realize that this has truly been a historic season from Scheffler. He should be properly rewarded for just how good this season has been. No. 1 in the FedExCup is not created equal from season to season.
Hoping off my soapbox now. Let's get back to the format we have. Scheffler does come into East Lake a little off his game. The BMW Championship was the first time since the 2022 Scottish Open that he has lost strokes in an event. It was highlighted by losting 5.4 strokes on appraoch, a category he has absolutely dominated this season. Castle Pines was a unique venue being played at such elevation, so Scheffler has to hope getting back closer to sea level helps his control with the irons. He'll have to hold off Xander Schauffele who has never finished outside the top-seven in his seven career starts at East Lake. No. 3 seed Hideki Matsuyama's status is a little up in the air after he was forced to withdraw from the BMW Championship with a back injury, which is so on brand after he won the previous week at the opening leg of the playoffs. Meanwhile Keegan Bradley took advantage of being the last man in the field at the BMW Championship and won vaulting himself up to the No. 4 seed. Rory McIlroy has been up-and-down since his heartbreaking finish at the U.S. Open and has fallen to the No. 6 seed. He will start the TOUR Championship at four-under-par, but McIlroy chased down Scheffler starting at the same number in 2022 to win FedExCup title No. 3.
The TOUR Championship is also the final opportunity for players to make an impression on the Presidents Cup captains, as six captains picks for both the U.S. and International teams will be announced on Tuesday Sept. 3. The period to automatically qualify on points closed following the BMW Championship. The U.S. team's automatic qualifiers are Scheffler, Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay and Sahith Theegala, while the six International team automatic qualifiers are Matusyama, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Jason Day, Adam Scott and Byeong Hun An. The 2024 Presidents Cup will be contested Sept. 26-29 at Royal Montreal Golf Club.
It's no real mystery what the weather is going to be like in Atlanta in late August. It's going to be 90s, it's going to be humid and we are going to have storms to dodge. The wind doesn't look like it will be much of a factor apart from some gusts during potential storms. In the five previous editions of the TOUR Championship in the Starting Strokes format, the FedExCup has been won from starting at 10-under twice, eight-under, five-under and four-under. Last year Viktor Hovland was the No. 2 seed at eight-under and shot 19-under over the 72 holes to post 27-under and win by five shots over Schauffele and 11 shots over Clark in third. Schauffele also shot 19-under-par over the 72 holes of the TOUR Championship, but his starting strokes was only three-under-par. Conditions this week appear prime for players to make some moves. By the time the weekend gets here the starting strokes will be pretty much forgotten.
Recent Champions
2023 - Viktor Hovland -27 (Starting Strokes: -8)
2022 - Rory McIlroy -21 (-4)
2021 - Patrick Cantlay -21 (-10)
2020 - Dustin Johnson -21 (-10)
2019 - Rory McIlroy -18 (-5)
2018 - Tiger Woods -11
2017 - Xander Schauffele -12
2016 - Rory McIlroy -12 (Won FedExCup)
2015 - Jordan Spieth -9 (Won FedExCup)
2014 - Billy Horschel -11 (Won FedExCup)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
- SG: Approach/Proximity
- SG: Putting/Three-Putt Avoidance
- Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance
Champion's Profile
Anyone who has watched the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club, which has hosted the event since 2004, is going to notice that it looks vastly different in 2024. Immediately following last year's TOUR Championship, the entire course was ripped up and Andrew Green began his work trying to restore East Lake closer to the original Donald Ross design. Green has received high praise for his work in recent years at Inverness, Congressional and Oak Hill, so East Lake certainly felt that he was the right man for the job. The biggest changes he made were removing a number of trees to open up some of the course, making the bunkers more penal with steeper faces both on the fairways and around the greens, and lastly moving the location of the greens around and increasing the size of the putting surfaces to be more tightly connected with the surroundings. The greens feature new TifEagle bermudagrass and the fairways were recontoured to create more movement when balls hit the ground. The Zorro Zoysiagrass fairways should run faster than the previous fairway surfaces provided we avoid the rain.
How do all these changes affect the golfer profile we are targeting in DFS? Well that's a little bit up in the air. The moving of tee boxes to new angles with result in more shot shaping required to hold fairways. The bermuda rough is still not going to be a place you are going to be able to score from easily. With larger greens, you would expect to see GIR percentage numbers increase. That ultimately will make putting more of an emphasis, especially lag-putting as I imagine we will see quite a few three-putts on these new greens this week. There should be more variety from a short game perspective as well with less shots around the greens out of thick rough. Balls that miss the greens should feed into deeper bunkers or larger short game collection areas.
This new and improved East Lake has really everything you want to see from a course that is hosting the most lucrative event of the season. I also think all these changes really takes out course history as a big emphasis in making lineups and puts first-timers in the TOUR Championship on a pretty level playing field. Overall, I think the biggest key will be staying patient. Some of the trees being removed and increased green sizes can easily lull players into a false sense of security that the bermuda rough and deep bunkers are ready to pounce on.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Xander Schauffele, -8 ($12,800)
The course might be different, but for me Schauffele still is the best fit for this test. He is coming off his 10th straight top-15 finish at the BMW Championship and has gained strokes with the putter in 17 straight events. That putting ability, especially on bermuda, gives him the edge over Scheffler this week. Schauffele has also lost strokes on approach or off the tee just once in his last 14 starts. He's incredibly difficult to pass up in this spot.
Hideki Matsuyama, -7 ($11,800)
There's certainly risk anytime you play Matsuyama because of the injury history, but when he's been playing recently he has been dialed in. Matsuyama won the bronze medal at the Olympics before winning the opening leg of the FedExCup in Memphis and then was in second before having to WD after the first round of the BMW Championship. He ranks third this season in SG: Tee-to-Green and has been red hot on the greens of late. The upside here is too good not to take the risk.
Ludvig Aberg, -5 ($11,100)
Hitting it long and straight will work pretty much everywhere, but especially at East Lake with thick bermuda rough and penal fairway bunkers. Aberg is making his TOUR Championship debut, but the course renovation puts him on pretty equal ground. He's coming off a T2 at the BMW Championship which was his eighth top-10 of the season. Aberg has also gained strokes on approach in 12 straight starts.
The Middle Tier
Sam Burns, -4 ($10,300)
Burns is one of the best putters on Tour, but especially on bermudagrass like what he will face at East Lake. He is now 11th in SG: Putting, first in putts in GIR and 16th in three-putt avoidance. Combine that with the fact that the 28-year-old also ranks 12th in total driving and that's certainly something to work with. Burns was hot earlier this season when he logged four straight top-10s and is hoping to close on another hot stretch after going T12-T5-T2 his last three starts. Four-under is not too far back when you putt like this man.
Sungjae Im, -3 ($9,800)
This is quietly the sixth straight year that Im has made it to East Lake. He is coming off a T11 at the BMW, his 10th top-12 finish in his last 14 starts. Im is just so solid through the bag as he is gaining strokes in every category this season and is 12th in birdie average. Im has always been a strong player on bermudagrass and I think has the potential to be relatively low owned given all the other options in this range.
Adam Scott, -3 ($9,600)
Scott is aging like fine wine. At age 44 he is back at East Lake for the ninth time in the FedExCup era. The Aussie also qualified for another Presidents Cup team and has finished 2nd-T10-T18-T2 in his last four starts. Scott is now up to 16th in the Data Golf rankings, and much like Im, has been solid in every phase of the game. I wouldn't expect him to stay in seven shots back in T11 for long.
The Long Shots
Billy Horschel, -1 ($8,800)
After going T2-T7-T10, a T22 at Castle Pines was a little disappointing, but the return to bermudagrass should light a fire under Horschel and get him back to rolling in putts left and right like he has all season. Horschel did make it four straight tournaments of gaining over 3.9 strokes on approach. He also ranks top-20 in both bogey avoidance and scrambling this season. Horschel has ground to make up, but certainly the tools to do it with at a venue he owns four top-10s at in six starts.
Akshay Bhatia, -2 ($8,100)
Bhatia has been scuffling of late, but the putter has not been, as he has gained strokes in six of his last eight starts. The changes Andrew Green made to this golf course also do seem to favor a right to left ball flight, and Bhatia being able to hit a fade could be an advantage against the right-handers. Bhatia is 17th in total driving, 38th in SG: Approach, 54th in scrambling and 26th in SG: Putting this season. A strong performance here could go a long way into securing a Presidents Cup selection.
Taylor Pendrith, -1 ($8,000)
Pendrith continued his consistent play with a T13 at the BMW making it now 11 top-25s in his last 14 starts. He certainly has the ideal power to be able to attack this course if he can keep it in play. Pendrith has also been an elite putter this season ranking 10th in SG: Putting and fourth in putts per GIR. Iron play used to be his weakness, but Pendrith has now gained strokes on approach in seven straight starts.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The first thing to remember is that DFS will go off of the PGA Tour leaderboard. So right now players starting at three-under-par are starting at T11. They will start with placement points, but they won't get credit for like three birdies for example. The 72-hole score is still going to be the biggest factor in terms of DFS points. I don't think there's really that big of a differential with 72 holes to play from the guys starting even-par and the guys starting four-under. My biggest advice would just be to go after the players you feel like best fit the course and the challenge no matter where they are starting the event. On FanDuel I don't think it should be that difficult to grab one of those top-three seeds and still put together a pretty strong team top to bottom that will make a run up the leaderboard. That being said, ownership will be very significant for Scheffler and Schauffele, so a pivot off them could lend to itself to getting a lesser owned roster.
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