This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to San Diego this week, and if you've been waiting for some major star power, you're in luck. You might have heard Tiger Woods is making his season debut this week, but that's just the beginning. We have Rory, Phil, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Xander ... ah you get it.
This weekend marks yet another unofficial start to the season, it's the first event with a ton of big names, and it's also the first CBS event of the year. It's kind of a big deal. It's also a week where we can rely heavily on track record as Torrey Pines seems like a course you either take to, or you don't. There are plenty of quality options this week based solely on track record.
This Week: Farmers Insurance Open – Torrey Pines, La Jolla, Calif.
Last Year: Justin Rose shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Adam Scott.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (6-1)
McIlroy is one of a handful of players on the PGA Tour who seemingly can flip the switch when properly motivated (recent majors not withstanding), and with the return of Tiger this week, you can bet that McIlroy will want to steal the spotlight. His most recent PGA Tour start, in November, resulted in a win and while we can't assume his form is great, we know that he's in a spot where he could
The PGA Tour heads to San Diego this week, and if you've been waiting for some major star power, you're in luck. You might have heard Tiger Woods is making his season debut this week, but that's just the beginning. We have Rory, Phil, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Xander ... ah you get it.
This weekend marks yet another unofficial start to the season, it's the first event with a ton of big names, and it's also the first CBS event of the year. It's kind of a big deal. It's also a week where we can rely heavily on track record as Torrey Pines seems like a course you either take to, or you don't. There are plenty of quality options this week based solely on track record.
This Week: Farmers Insurance Open – Torrey Pines, La Jolla, Calif.
Last Year: Justin Rose shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Adam Scott.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (6-1)
McIlroy is one of a handful of players on the PGA Tour who seemingly can flip the switch when properly motivated (recent majors not withstanding), and with the return of Tiger this week, you can bet that McIlroy will want to steal the spotlight. His most recent PGA Tour start, in November, resulted in a win and while we can't assume his form is great, we know that he's in a spot where he could win against a field like this if he plays well.
Jon Rahm (8-1)
Rahm makes a case for being the favorite this week as his track record is much more impressive than McIlroy's. But the favorite is not always the golfer most likely to win, but rather a top contender who also has public support — and Rahm is not in McIlroy's class when it comes to public support. But that gives Rahm some value as he won this event in 2017 and finished fifth last year.
Tiger Woods (11-1)
Considering the public support angle, I'm a little surprised that Woods comes in at double-digits. Actually, that makes sense, he's only won here SEVEN TIMES! He's not that Tiger anymore, but that Tiger showed up on a couple occasions last season and there's no telling where he'll pop his head out this season. If you are bullish on Tiger, this might be the last chance to get double-digit odds on him this season.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Justin Rose (18-1)
Rose's overall record here isn't great as he's missed the cut three of 10 times, but he's been on a roll the last three years here and should probably be getting a little more respect than he's receiving. Rose is the defending champ and finished T8 and T4 the previous two years.
Gary Woodland (25-1)
Woodland has been consistent at this event over the years, but he's missing the high-end finishes you look for when betting on a golfer to win. He gives himself a chance here more often than not, though, finishing in the top-20 in each of his four most recent starts here.
Tony Finau (30-1)
This is the type of event where I expect Finau to win next on the PGA Tour. Stiff competition, but not so stiff that he can't overcome the field. This would be a good spot as well as his track record here is solid. Finau has played this event five times and finished in the top 25 each time. Two of those starts resulted in top-10s as well.
LONGSHOTS
Cameron Smith (40-1)
One bad season and everyone forgot about Cameron Smith, but as he showed a couple weeks ago, he's not about to fade away anytime soon. Smith has a ton of talent, but he's young, which means a bump in the road should have been expected at some point. Smith seems to be past that bump and perhaps now is ready to join the upper crust of the PGA Tour. His track record here, while not great, is trending in the right direction.
J.B. Holmes (150-1)
One thing you always want from your longshots is volatility. There's no reason to take a longshot to win if you think he'll score a top-20. You want someone who, if everything falls right, can win. Holmes' current form is the reason he's 150-1, but his track record here provides hope. Holmes has finished in the top 6 here in three of his last five starts. Considering his game is wildly unpredictable, who's to say he can't win this week?
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Tiger Woods - Depending where you stand on Tiger's prospects this season, you are either saving him for a major, or looking for a spot to deploy him ASAP. If you're in the latter camp, this would be a great spot to use him as his form looks to be good and his track record is second to none.
Moderately Owned Pick: Tony Finau - Outside of Tiger, I don't see the other favorites with high usage rates this week, which means most OAD players will go off the beaten path ever so slightly this week. In such a case, Finau looks like a good option as even though he hasn't made a huge splash here, he has been pretty consistent.
Lightly Owned Pick: J.B. Holmes - For those who have used a lot of fire power early in the season and want to pull back a bit this week, Holmes could be your guy. He has played well here recently and his upside is higher than most who come in 150-1.
Buyer Beware: Rickie Fowler - There's a lot working against Fowler this week. For starters, he's been terrible here in his last six starts, missing four cuts and failing to crack the top 60. He's also coming off another Sunday where he had a chance to win, but just didn't have that extra gear. He's good enough to win at any time, but he's becoming less reliable.
Last Week: Scottie Scheffler (3) $462,300; Season - $531,300
This Week: Tony Finau - I've been pretty conservative to this point in the season, so this week I'm going a bit bigger. Sure, Finau is not exactly a "big gun," but he's a nice guy to have available later in the season. This might be one of the best spots to use him all year, however. I also considered Tiger, Rahm and Rose, but I'm going to save each for a better spot.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Tiger Woods ($11,700)/Tony Finau ($10,600)/Nick Watney ($8,800)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Harris English (T48); Streak - 2
This Week: Tony Finau - I'm going to double-up as Finau has yet to even come close to missing the cut here. In addition to his solid track record, he's coming off a good showing last week at the AmEx where he placed T14. He was one mediocre round away from being in contention last week, which means his form is good coming into this week.
