RBC Heritage Preview: A Shot-Maker's Course

RBC Heritage Preview: A Shot-Maker's Course

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

There's generally a post-major hangover that lasts about a week, but after the events last Sunday, this particular hangover might last a few weeks. Nonetheless, the PGA Tour moves on and this week, the crew heads to South Carolina. The week after a major is generally a good time for the elite players to take the week off, but with the condensed schedule, some big names will tee it up this week. Harbour Town has been the location for this event since the beginning of time, which means we'll rely heavily on course history this week.   

This week: RBC Heritage – Harbour Town, Hilton Head, S.C. 

Last Year: Satoshi Kodaira shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Si Woo Kim.  

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (7-1) 

It makes sense that DJ is the heavy favorite this week as he's easily the biggest name in the field and Is coming off a T2 at the Masters last week. He's only played this event three times, two of which came a decade ago, which means he does not have a lot of course history. He finished T16 last year at this event, but obviously that's not good enough when you take a guy like DJ. This is really a shot-maker's course, one that can be easily overpowered, which takes away a huge advantage for DJ. As such, he's probably overpriced this week as the heavy favorite.                    

There's generally a post-major hangover that lasts about a week, but after the events last Sunday, this particular hangover might last a few weeks. Nonetheless, the PGA Tour moves on and this week, the crew heads to South Carolina. The week after a major is generally a good time for the elite players to take the week off, but with the condensed schedule, some big names will tee it up this week. Harbour Town has been the location for this event since the beginning of time, which means we'll rely heavily on course history this week.   

This week: RBC Heritage – Harbour Town, Hilton Head, S.C. 

Last Year: Satoshi Kodaira shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Si Woo Kim.  

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (7-1) 

It makes sense that DJ is the heavy favorite this week as he's easily the biggest name in the field and Is coming off a T2 at the Masters last week. He's only played this event three times, two of which came a decade ago, which means he does not have a lot of course history. He finished T16 last year at this event, but obviously that's not good enough when you take a guy like DJ. This is really a shot-maker's course, one that can be easily overpowered, which takes away a huge advantage for DJ. As such, he's probably overpriced this week as the heavy favorite.                                    
Francesco Molinari (14-1)   

As with Johnson, the odds are a reflection on who played well last week. Molinari was in control for much of Sunday's final round at Augusta, but a miscue on the 12th sent him down the wrong path and he never recovered. Be that as it may, Molinari is pretty strong mentally and I'm not expecting any lingering effects from his blown lead this week. Molinari's biggest hurdle this week might be his inability to get around this course. For whatever reason, he's never played well here, failing to crack the top 20 in any of his four starts at this event.                                            

Bryson DeChambeau (16-1) 

DeChambeau was on the right track early on last week at the Masters, but as is often the case with those who have little experience at Augusta, the wheels simply came off. He did manage to pick up his first hole-in-one on Sunday, but it wasn't a great week. However, he has a solid track record at this event with two top-5s in three starts. DeChambeau is deservedly one of the favorites this week.

MID-TIER GOLFERS                        

Xander Schauffele (16-1) 

Schauffele definitely needs to get off a good start, as he's proven that momentum is real when it comes to his game. Unlike many of the favorites this week, Schauffele does not have a long history of solid play at this event – just one start that resulted in a T32 – but as he proved last week, his game is good enough to hang with anyone. Schauffele should be in the mix again this week come Sunday afternoon.                                                   

Matt Kuchar (20-1) 

If you have Kuchar on your team, it's been a fun year as he's produced at a high level. If you've been rooting against him, he's like a cockroach in that he never goes away, he's always hanging around. For those who haven't used him yet, this is the week to get the pest on your side as all signs point to another top-10. Kuchar's game remains in good shape and his track record here is solid, with five top-10s in 15 starts and a win in 2014.                                                        

Patrick Cantlay (22-1) 

Tiger Woods might have won the Masters, but no one played better than Cantlay on the weekend. As for Thursday and Friday? Well, that's why he didn't win, but for a moment, he had the lead on Sunday, even after that poor start. It goes to show just how much game this guy has. That game will be on display again this week, just like in previous years here as Cantlay has played really well in his two starts at this event, scoring a T3 and a T7.                                                      

LONGSHOTS

Branden Grace (40-1)  

He's not in the best form coming off a T58 last week at the Masters, but he managed a top-10 at the WGC Match Play event a few weeks ago and his track record here is solid. Grace won this event in 2016 and has finished no worse than T11 in his three starts here. At 40-1, he's definitely worth a long look this week.                                          

Justin Harding (80-1) 

Like Schauffele, Harding's placement on this list is based solely on his current form. Harding is extending his stay on the PGA Tour another week after a solid performance at the Masters. Will this course suit him? It's hard to say, but he's done pretty well lately playing courses for the first time, and at 80-1, the odds are right.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - I don't expect high ownership from DJ or Molinari this week as most have either used both of those guys already or are saving them for a major. DeChambeau, however, is not at that stage yet where you would save him for a major, which leaves spots like this to pounce on him. DeChambeau flashed enough game last week to make me think he'll come out firing this week at a spot where he's comfortable.       

Moderately Owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - Cantlay is still considered a "potential" guy in that he hasn't accomplished a ton yet on the PGA Tour, but all the signs are there for big things in the future. He flashed some of that potential last week and with his track record here, there's every reason to think he'll be in contention again this week.     

Lightly Owned Pick: Branden Grace - If this field didn't have as many big names as it does, Grace  likely would be a popular pick, but as it is, he'll likely slip under the radar. This looks like a great spot to make up ground on your competition as Grace is a solid player with an impressive track record at this event.           

Buyer Beware: Jordan Spieth - Spieth struggled out of the gate last week, but pulled himself together for a decent finish. The problem is Augusta is his best track. If he can't pull off a top-5 there, he can't do it anywhere ... until his game gets better, which it will, but he's not quite there yet. His track record here is solid, but nowhere near what it is at Augusta.           

Last week: Justin Rose (MC) - $0; Season - $4,355,304  

This week: Branden Grace - I entered last week in a bad spot and with Rose missing the cut, I'm now in full catch-up mode. As such, I'm taking Grace, who should provide more of an opportunity to make up ground than say Patrick Cantlay, who happens to be my 1A this week.

FANDUEL PICKS 

High/Mid/Low: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700)/Branden Grace ($9,900)/Patton Kizzire ($8,500)

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last week: Justin Rose - (MC); Streak - 0 

This week: Matt Kuchar - The double-digit streak ended in of all places, the easiest place to make a cut. Anyhow, time to get back on track and do to so, I'll go with probably the most reliable player on the PGA Tour in Matt Kuchar, who also happens to be 14-15 at this event.            

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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