This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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2024 Wyndham Championship: Reward points
What a difference a week makes. RTL readers sat well positioned holding both 54-hole leaders on Saturday night. Andrea Lee in Portland while Jon Rahm was the favorite to take home gold. Rahm increased his lead to four strokes with eight holes to play. Then Scottie Scheffler happened again. Rahm imploded while Scheffler went nuclear on the back nine beating the Spaniard by 10 shots! Ten shots on nine holes, unbelievable. Well I have good news and bad news. Bad news is we lost. Good news is we will not have to mention Rahm's name again until the 2025 Masters.
I think the only one who felt worse than the Rahm backers was Tom Kim. We pushed the military narrative all week and it was obviously motivating him. His reaction in the scorer's trailer following his round was quite emotional. Those types of emotional moments are also common at the Wyndham Championship. Guys are competing to preserve their careers. Who could forget Justin Thomas' near hole out on the final green to get in the playoffs. Oddly enough it is not JT who needs a good week at the Wyndham; it is Jordan Spieth. Spieth sits at number 63 on the FedEx Cup points list. The top 70 and ties make the playoffs and much like the final four holes in France, the field for next week at the St. Jude will not be finalized until late Sunday afternoon.
2024 Wyndham Championship: Watch out for Debby
We have a developing situation in Greensboro, North Carolina for the Wyndham. Hurricane Debby is heading toward the Carolinas. The massive storm just dumped epic amounts of rain on western Florida and now is tracking for the PGA TOUR. As of Wednesday morning, we are looking at heavy rain throughout today into Friday. The Sedgefield region received two inches of rain over the previous 10 days. Another 3-to-5 inches are expected from the storm. Temperatures are forecasted in the high 70s rising to the high 80s over the weekend.
Sedgefield Country Club is a par 70 layout barely stretching 7,200 yards (7,131). Target golf from tee to green is always the focus here. Along with some great Bermudagrass putting. The average green size is 6,000 sq/ft. These putting surfaces promote one of the easiest SG:APP venues on TOUR annually. That historical trend will get tested by the conditions. The storm will bring some serious wind with 16 -18mph sustained and gusts well over 20 mph. Keep an eye on the forecast with our link. DO NOT lock in those DFS lineups until later and we get the best prediction closer to starting. Sedgefield CC is a wonderful course where we have a substantial amount of data history. Unfortunately, it seems Mother Nature will be the lead story this week instead of the playoff cut line.
Outside of the storm, everyone in Greensboro has one common goal; move up the points list! It doesn't matter where you sit, this will be a huge motivating/pressure storyline. The top 125 get access to the fall swing to secure their 2025 card. The top 70 get into the playoffs and a chance to move toward the top 50. The top 50 is a huge goal that determines "signature status." We have no idea what next year's schedule will bring, but I can assure you it will involve $20M+ signature events. Gaining access to those is a step one priority for the favorites here. Those inside the top 50 are trying to stay there and get to East Lake (top 30). Our field of 156 all have something to play for besides winning the golf tournament.
To top 65 and ties make the weekend and also compete for $7.9 million. The Wyndham is fun. The average winning score over the last decade is 20 under par. Those 10 champions averaged 24 sub-par scores en route to winning. Seven of those 10 held pre-tournament odds over +5500. So there's a very good chance with a short course in soft conditions, we will see another long shot winner like Jhonny Vegas! As much scoring as we have seen over the years, the average cutline is only -2.4 under par. Donald Ross' Sedgefield design can cause bogeys. Under questionable conditions this week, be prepared for some Open Championship style bogey avoidance. Thirteen holes have water, there's 52 bunkers, and these Champion Bermudagrass greens cause a number of 3 putts.
The next four weeks the cutline on Friday fades away as every field will be cut come Sunday afternoon as well. Only 21 of the top 50 in the OWGR are in Greensboro. I expect a volatile scoreboard all week and a ton of drama. By the end, our outrights will continue to contend and give us a great chance at win number eight this year!
2024 Wyndham Championship: Bermuda Triangle
The weather this week will only further emphasize the main scoring skills needed at Sedgefield. Before we get to those, I also took a look at the best players in sloppy conditions. Over the last few years, we have seen a couple of these lift, clean, and place championships. Remember what happened at Royal Troon three weeks ago? As such, it is important to gain a perspective on who can thrive in this environment. The softer it gets, the easier it will be to stop the ball. When you consider accuracy off the tee, those advantages do not exist in the rough. The only players who will get to touch the ball will be those in the fairway. Finding the short grass was already a huge priority at SCC, and with the possibility of getting to clean the ball it becomes even more of an edge.
Approach players excel here under normal conditions. Soft conditions will make this sub 7,200 setting into a dart board. The best iron players know their carry numbers to within a yard or two. Sedgefield is one of the easiest approach courses on the PGA TOUR. Add in this wet element and the better iron attackers will increase their edge. The field historically plays a majority of their approach shots from 125-175 yards. Yet they gain the most on their competitors from 200+. That trend will definitely continue as the course should play longer favoring lengthier approaches. We won't take all wedge players this week.
I always look at the best par 70 players in the field when we visit a venue like Sedgefield. Two less par 5s make a huge difference in scoring. The last ten winners here have gained an average of 2.3 strokes on the 5s and 10 strokes on the 4s. I understand there are more 4s, but the point is to register 20+ sub-par scores you need to birdie the nine par 4s under 450 yards. When you consider the challenging conditions players will face, this strokes gained category really summarizes the skill set needed. Find the fairway, attack on approach, and then convert the birdie chance.
Sedgefield has a 3-putt rate well above the Tour average. I know Lucas Glover is not a good putter, but he was that week. These Donald Ross green complexes covered in grainy Bermudagrass are challenging. They have subtle breaks, swales, false fronts, and tiered shelves. Getting on the correct plateau is important, but also is making all of those saving putts under 10'. Good Bermudagrass putters have fared well here over the years. Add in the element of a storm and those grainy surfaces only get more players guessing. Wet, humid conditions increase the grain effect. If you can't putt Bermuda under dry conditions, this week will be a bigger struggle.
The storm is also going to increase short game concerns. Windy conditions will cause players to miss more GIRs. In the past, ARG play was not a huge concern at Sedgefield. I believe this year it will be. I'll be adding the influence of better players on Bermudagrass around the green. Previous success on this southern strain of grass shows the ability to score from into the grain and long grass Bermuda lies. Three of the last five winners lost strokes ARG the week they won. Be careful, and pay attention to your players as wedge acumen will be upgraded in this year's edition.
Recent form combined with course history really counts at Sedgefield. This is a quirky course that many players do not play every year. Many of those who always sit around the top 125 have more experience here than the elite members of the field. The last time Spieth came here was 2020. It also feels like the last time he had a top 10 finish. Be careful selecting players just based upon ranking. Sedgefield is just like Harbourtown or Wai'alae. There are specific horses for courses and we have a bunch across our entire betting card.
2024 Wyndham Championship: Outright Winners
Cameron Young (+3300)
Young carries an edge on the field when finding the fairway and proximity on approach are two keys to victory.
- He finished ninth (Travelers) and sixth (Rocket Mortgage) on similar short target-oriented designs. He shot 59 at TPC River Highlands!
- A northeast native, Donald Ross designs and bad weather are familiar territory.
- Speaking of familiar territory, Young attended Wake Forest. What better place for a first win than the Carolinas.
Eric Cole (+7000)
The 2023 Rookie of the Year, Cole has recaptured the form that earned him the title.
- Cole just finished sixth at the Rocket and seventh at the John Deere.
- Eric finished fourteenth at Wyndham last year. A result that inspired four top-5s in his next seven starts!
- Cole can play on Bermudagrass, a great surface for his putting talents.
- Eric is gaining an average of five strokes total on the field over his last five starts.
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