The Open Championship Preview: The Final Major

The PGA Tour stays put in the U.S.A. this week, but its best head across the pond to tee it up at the Open Championship. While the storylines heading into the previous three majors were plentiful, there doesn't seem to be quite as much hype entering the final major of the year. The amount of hype has no bearing on the outcome, however, which means we're just as likely to see something special this week as we were during the previous three majors. 

The Open Championship has somewhat of a course rotation, but the course chosen this year, Royal Portrush, has not been used since 1951, so Tom Lehman is the only one in the field this week with previous Open experience on this course. Seriously, we have no course history in play this week, but as is often the case during this event, we'll fall back on how these guys have played at other Open venues as all share certain characteristics. Using event history this week also gives us some insight as to which players can handle this type of course, under the pressure of a major.       
This Week: The Open Championship – Royal Portrush, Portrush, Northern Ireland  

Last Year: Francesco Molinari shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over four players including Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose.  

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (8-1) 

Deserved or not, McIlroy is generally among the favorites because the public will put money down on him, but this week his standing among the favorites actually seems justified. For starters, it's the Open Championship and this year it's essentially a "home game" for McIlroy. He's also played well most of the season, and if you need more reason to back him, he's usually on fire at this event. McIlroy finished top-5 in his last four starts at the Open Championship and won the title in 2014.      

Brooks Koepka (10-1)   

I mentioned earlier this season that unless there is an obvious advantage for someone in the field, like many at Augusta, or Dustin Johnson at Pebble Beach, Koepka should be considered the favorite. This week, the oddsmakers think McIlroy's home-court advantage gives him a slight edge, but it's not that much. Although not many memories come to mind when we think of Koepka at the Open Championship, he has carded top-10s in his two most recent starts at this event. He hasn't played that well since the U.S. Open, but that generally doesn't matter for Koepka.      

Dustin Johnson (10-1) 

This one is a little puzzling. I realize that Johnson is a strong presence, but I don't agree with these odds. Perhaps I'm partial to those who have played more on the European Tour or perhaps I don't like DJ's historical performance at this event. Maybe it's his recent form, which hasn't been terrible, but it hasn't been great either. Then again, maybe this is what DJ needs — to come in a bit under the radar. Nah, I just don't see it this week, at least, not at this price.           

MID-TIER GOLFERS                         

Justin Rose (20-1) 

After attaining No. 1 status last season, it was thought Rose would continue his ascension this season, but, in total, this season has been a bit of letdown. For starters, he missed the cut at the Masters, then he failed to contend at the PGA Championship. He did, however, show some life at the U.S. Open last month, which leads me to believe he has something for us this week. Rose's overall performance at the Open Championship isn't as good as you'd think, but he's had his moments and is as good as anyone on the PGA Tour when he's on. He's definitely worth a look at this price.           

Xander Schauffele (20-1) 

Schauffele has yet to prove that he can win a major, but he's proved time and time again that he can contend. He might not be a great value to win at this price, but for OAD purposes, he's certainly a strong option to capture a top-5. Make that, another top-5. Schauffele entered this season with a strong record at the majors and it's only improved through his first three starts of 2019. He finished runner-up at the Masters and T3 at the U.S. Open earlier this year.     

Adam Scott (30-1) 

Scott has been pretty solid at this event over the years, making 15 of 19 cuts, and he has a couple high-end finishes as well. He's also fared well during the majors this season, top 20 in all three majors and top 10 in his two most recent major starts. Scott has battled to get back to this spot and is not about to throw away a real opportunity for another major. He's part of a small group that has a real chance to win this week.            

LONGSHOTS

Matt Wallace (50-1)  

Take note, this will be the last chance to get Wallace at this price for a long time. Wallace has posted top-20s in three of his last four major starts, missing out only at the Masters earlier this season. Wallace now gets to tee it up in Europe, with a ton of confidence from his two most recent major showings.        

Erik van Rooyen (125-1)  

I'm not sure van Rooyen can win this week, but he's a nice sleeper to add to your Open Championship team for pools and DFS purposes. van Rooyen is a European Tour member, which means he's used to this style of play, and he's coming off a nice showing at the Scottish Open last week. He also posted a top-10 at the PGA Championship earlier this year.     

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - If you still have Rory, you are using him here. The question is, how many people have had the discipline to wait this long? Considering we all knew where this event was being held, I would guess that a decent percentage of OAD players still have him available.              

Moderately Owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - As mentioned earlier, Schauffele is a very solid option in the OAD format this week. He's yet to break through at a major, but if you could take a top-5, you'd do it, right? Well, outside of Koepka, nobody has been better at the majors the last two seasons.         

Lightly Owned Pick: Matt Wallace - As I write this, I'm eagerly awaiting my turn in my Open Championship pool, because I'm getting ready to jump on Matt Wallace in round two. Yes, it's a deep pool and he'll be the 20th player selected, but it gives you an idea of how much I like him this week. If Wallace plays like I expect, he'll be a well-known commodity entering the Masters next year.                  

Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson -  I'm just not feeling DJ this week. Even at his best, I wouldn't expect DJ to be among the contenders at this event. That's not a rip, it's just that some golfers are better suited for the majors in the United States. My only hesitation is the lack of attention he's getting this week.                  

Last Week: Brian Harman (T26) - $42,600; Season - $6,711,302  

This Week: Xander Schauffele - I went back and forth on this one for quite a while. I originally had Scott in this spot, but after further reflection, I decided that Schauffele was the safer pick. I believe both Scott and Schauffele are capable of winning this week, but Schauffele has the higher floor.                                            
FANDUEL PICKS 

High/Mid/Low: Rory McIlroy ($12,000)/Adam Scott ($10,500)/Erik van Rooyen ($8,600) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last Week: Viktor Hovland - (T16); Streak - 1 

This Week: Adam Scott - I probably need to clarify my above comments as I referred to Schauffele as the "safer" pick of the two. What I meant was, Schauffele is more likely to finish well than Scott, but obviously, anything can happen. Scott has a long history of making the cut at this event, on several courses. In other words, he knows how to adapt to his surroundings. It looks like Schauffele does as well, but he hasn't been doing it for 19 years.