This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing this week at TPC Sawgrass. In case you haven't heard, the Players is back in March, and I, for one, love the idea. For those who tuned into the Players only after its move to May, the 17th hole is the one everyone fears. You wouldn't know it by watching the best players in the world attack a green that has only the tame winds of May as its defense. March is different, though, and we will see some balls in the water this week. Along with those balls in the water, come nerves, which means it will take someone with nerves of steel to win.
This week: The Players Championship - TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Last Year: Webb Simpson shot a final-round 67 on his way to a four-stroke victory over three players, including Xander Schauffele.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (12-1)
Oof. Where to start with McIlroy. He had the Arnold Palmer by the you know what, with only Matthew Fitzpatrick ahead of him entering the final round, and came out flat. McIlroy played so poorly, he couldn't even manage his trademarked top 5. He's listed as the co-favorite this week for some reason, but he should be in the back half of the top 10. He has a decent track record here, with three top-10s in nine starts, but even if he's in good position entering Sunday, would anyone expect him to win? Against this field?
The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing this week at TPC Sawgrass. In case you haven't heard, the Players is back in March, and I, for one, love the idea. For those who tuned into the Players only after its move to May, the 17th hole is the one everyone fears. You wouldn't know it by watching the best players in the world attack a green that has only the tame winds of May as its defense. March is different, though, and we will see some balls in the water this week. Along with those balls in the water, come nerves, which means it will take someone with nerves of steel to win.
This week: The Players Championship - TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Last Year: Webb Simpson shot a final-round 67 on his way to a four-stroke victory over three players, including Xander Schauffele.
FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy (12-1)
Oof. Where to start with McIlroy. He had the Arnold Palmer by the you know what, with only Matthew Fitzpatrick ahead of him entering the final round, and came out flat. McIlroy played so poorly, he couldn't even manage his trademarked top 5. He's listed as the co-favorite this week for some reason, but he should be in the back half of the top 10. He has a decent track record here, with three top-10s in nine starts, but even if he's in good position entering Sunday, would anyone expect him to win? Against this field?
Dustin Johnson (12-1)
I had to do a double-take when I saw McIlroy and DJ were co-favorites this week. Sure, both are in good form, but neither have played all that well at this event, where course history really matters. In DJ's case, he's never cracked the top 10 here. Maybe the switch to March will help him – heck, it can't hurt him – but help or not, he shouldn't be the co-favorite this week.
Justin Thomas (16-1)
It's clear that the odds this week are based on popularity and overall game, because none of the top 3 have a stellar track record at this event. Of the three, Thomas has the best track record, with a top-3 and three top-25s in four starts, but there are plenty of golfers in the field with better track records. Thomas, like the other two favorites, is certainly capable of winning any given week, but this just doesn't look like the spot for him. I'll have at least four golfers in front of JT this week.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Rickie Fowler (20-1)
Fowler's track record at this event is interesting, to say the least. Fowler has missed the cut more often than he's made the cut, but he also has a win and a runner-up in nine starts. Fowler's form is also pretty solid, with a win and a runner-up from his last four starts.
Francesco Molinari (20-1)
If Molinari's last name were "McIlroy," he'd be 10-1 or better this week. As it is, he's 20-1 because the golfing public has been slow to come around to him. For anyone who saw him at his best last season, though, it's hard to imagine many golfers are better when on their games. Molinari got hot for an extended period of time last season and took down some major hardware. He looks that guy again entering this week, which means he should be on your radar.
Xander Schauffele (25-1)
Schauffele is usually under the radar, but with a field like this, you'll be hard pressed to find him at all. That's how he likes it, though, as Schauffele has done some of his best work when facing stacked fields. Schauffele has limited experience at this event, but in his lone start here, he finished in a three-way tie for second.
LONGSHOTS
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (50-1)
Cabrera-Bello has been on a roll lately, with top-25s in each of his last four starts on the PGA Tour. His best outing came last week at the Palmer where he posted a T3. Cabrera-Bello has also fared well at this event with a T4 in 2017 and a top-20 last year. He's yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he obviously has the game.
Henrik Stenson (50-1)
A lot of eyes were on Stenson last week because his track record was the antithesis of his recent form entering the week, and many were wondering which would win out. Early on, it appeared as though his recent form would win the day, or the week, but after posting an opening-round 77, Stenson found his game. He fought his way back to a T17, and if he carries that form into this week, he has a chance to contend as his track record here is solid as well.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Rickie Fowler - There might not be a highly owned pick this week. There's no one or two guys who come to mind when you think of the Players, and even if there are, there is good reason to be skeptical of those guys this week. Fowler comes to mind as a popular pick this week because he's a past champion and has played well recently. I'm certainly on board with this pick, highly owned or not.
Moderately Owned Pick: Francesco Molinari - It's not only his recent form that makes him an attractive pick this week. Molinari also has a fairly strong track record at this event. Molinari has posted top-10s in three of his last four starts at this event. He's yet to crack the top 5, but I dare say he's a better golfer now than at any point during his previous starts here.
Lightly Owned Pick: Henrik Stenson - I doubt last week's top-20 instilled enough confidence in the golfing public to pull the trigger on Stenson this week, which means odds are, he'll be lightly owned. The question is whether he is worth the risk? If he turned a corner last week, then he sure is. Stenson has the track record here and the pedigree to top a field like this.
Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - Not only will Rory not win this week, but his top-10 run ends this week as well. Prior to last week, all the talk surrounding McIlroy was about how well he was playing. After failing to compete during the final round last Sunday, the narrative has changed to one of, "why can't McIlroy win?" You'd be surprised how that can wear on a guy, especially one who pays attention to what people say. McIlroy ran out of gas last week, which could carry over to this week.
Last week: Rory McIlroy (T6) - $294,620; Season - $3,377,634
This week: Francesco Molinari - I hate chasing and it feels like I'm late to the party, but if last season is any indication, Molinari is not pleased with one win. If he's starting to find his best form, then he'll be the one to beat this week. With no clear choice this week, there's a chance that Molinari suddenly becomes a really popular pick, but I'll take my chances with that as I won't mind sharing if he plays well.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Rickie Fowler ($11,600)/Francesco Molinari ($10,100)/Matt Wallace ($8,500)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Rory McIlroy - (T6); Streak - 8
This week: Sergio Garcia - Just in case the wind is a huge factor this week, I want to have someone who is familiar with how this course plays in such conditions. Garcia is that guy as he's played this event 19 times and missed just two cuts. As long as his game isn't in terrible shape, he's nearly a lock to make the cut.
