Weekly Preview: Fortinet Championship

Fortinet Championship

Silverado Resort and Spa
Napa, CA

The PGA Tour heads to Napa Valley to kick off the 2021-2022 campaign!

The new season gets underway with the Fortinet Championship, formerly known as the Safeway Open. I'll spare everyone my "short offseason" jokes as we've been doing it this way for a while now and everyone that follows golf is aware that the "offseason" is comically short. In fact, it's not really an offseason at all. It's the same length of time the PGA Tour took off during the Olympics and the same amount of time they will take off next week for the Ryder Cup. It's not really enough time for any of these guys to reset, but if you've followed the PGA Tour over the past five years, you know that the best players on Tour generally use the next four months to rest and recover. By that, I mean, we'll see the top players from time-to-time, but we won't see the elite players teeing it up three, four weeks in a row. That's not the worst thing, as it opens the door for the up-and-comers to make a mark. The nice thing about the new setup is that the fall schedule is no longer an afterthought. As recently as a handful of years ago, this portion of the season was almost senseless, as most of the top players went into hibernation. But by placing some bigger events in the fall and utilizing a wraparound schedule, the best players have all the incentive they need to compete.

LAST YEAR

Stewart Cink shot a final-round 65 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Harry Higgs.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (4-1)

With the Ryder Cup next week and the fall portion of the schedule just beginning, I certainly didn't expect many -- if any -- big guns in this week's field, but here might be the biggest one of them all. There are some other decent names on hand, but Rahm sticks out like a sore thumb. Rahm has played this event once, and he finished T15 in 2016, but that doesn't really matter much. What matters is Rahm's motivation and his concentration. If he has both, he has a great chance to win, but even if he's there mentally, I can't recommend any golfer at this number.

Webb Simpson (14-1)

It really says something that the closest competitor to Rahm is so far away on the odds chart. Simpson did not have his best season this past season, but he showed a few times that he still has the talent to win out here. The troubling thing for Simpson this week is that he's played this event, on this course, three times and he's missed two cuts. Considering his recent play and his track record here, this number is just not favorable high enough.

Hideki Matsuyama (16-1)

Matsuyama is coming off a career-changing season after his first major win at the Masters this past April. After that win he coasted a bit, but there's no reason to think that the hangover will carry over into this season. He does face a bit of challenge this week, as he hasn't fared all that well here in two starts, just a top-20 and a MC. His name is driving this price and as such, there isn't much value here.

THE NEXT TIER

Kevin Na (22-1)

A couple things will be working in Na's favor. First, he comes in with some momentum from his third-place showing at the TOUR Championship. He didn't start that event in a great position, so it says a lot that he was able to crack the top five. Second, he was snubbed for a Ryder Cup spot, and that might serve as some momentum. He wasn't necessarily a good bet to make the team, but his play at the TOUR Championship put him in the mix. Perhaps he plays with a bit of an edge this week.

Will Zalatoris (28-1)

Zalatoris had a ton of success early last season, but he faded down the stretch. Perhaps with some time off -- he hasn't played since August 15 -- Zalatoris will come out fresh and ready to contend every week again. Zalatoris played extremely well during the fall portion of the schedule this past year and perhaps he'll turn into one of those guys that plays well in the fall each year.

Cameron Champ (40-1)

Champ hasn't quite lived up to expectations early in his career, but that's not to say he's been a disappointment. Champ now has three wins in three seasons on the PGA Tour, including one at the Safeway Open in 2019. There are a couple hundred guys on the PGA Tour that would take his resume in a heartbeat, but bigger things are expected of Champ. Perhaps he takes it to another level this season and it starts right here with a win.

LONG SHOTS

Max Homa (50-1)

If you're looking for a solid track record, then there's no need to look at Homa. His history here is terrible, but he hasn't played this event since 2019 and he's grown a lot as a golfer in the past two years. Homa is another guy looking to take his game to the next level after a breakthrough season. At this price, against a thin field, there is certainly some value.

Doug Ghim (60-1)

Ghim had his moments this past season, but like so many young players before him, he couldn't put four rounds together all that often. That should change soon, and this fall portion of the season is a great place to make that happen. Ghim finished T14 here this past year and you guessed it, he played lights-out the first three rounds, but struggled in the final round. If he can figure out how to keep his momentum going through Sunday, he has a chance to win here.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - Normally I would be skeptical about OAD players using Rahm this early in the season, but is he going to have a better chance to win this season? He'll be favored in almost every event he plays, but I doubt he will check in at 4-1 anywhere else. With that said, I can't fault anyone for not wanting to use him this early.

Moderately-owned Pick: Kevin Na - If you are looking for someone who checks several boxes -- especially the motivation one -- then Na is your man. It can be hard for golfers to get up this time of the year, so anytime you are sure a golfer of this caliber will be all-in, you should take a hard look.

Lightly-owned Pick: Doug Ghim - He's under the radar at the moment because he didn't accomplish much in the second half of the season this past year, but Ghim has the talent to win out here on a regular basis. As soon as he starts playing well again, his popularity is going to pick up, particularly during the fall portion of the schedule.

Buyer Beware: Webb Simpson - It's tough to single out anyone here with everyone getting a fresh start, but I'm going with Simpson because he seemed to be lacking something this past season and I'm wondering if that will carry over. Besides, there are some really good spots to use Simpson on the schedule later in the season, so why even think about using him here?

Last Week: N/A

This Week: Kevin Na - I'm making it a goal this year to not use anyone in the fall that I might want to use next year, especially late in the season. I got bit by this last time around when I used Cantlay in the fall and then couldn't use the eventual Player of the Year during the 2021 portion of the season. I don't think I'll regret using Na here, as there aren't any spots on the schedule later where he's a great play.

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Jon Rahm $12,500
Middle Range: Harold Varner III $10,900
Lower Range: Sam Ryder $8,000

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

This week: Harold Varner III - While I'm buying Na's motivation, he is just 1-of-2 on cuts made here, so I'll play it safer with Varner, who has played the weekend all five times he has played this event on this course. Varner has not had great results on the weekends during his career but has never had a problem making the cut, which gives me full confidence we will see him this weekend.