Weekly PGA Preview: Keyed in on Koepka

Weekly PGA Preview: Keyed in on Koepka

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

I mentioned last week that interest in an event is often driven by the stars involved and how well they are playing. Although there were some stars involved in play on Sunday afternoon at the Memorial, it was stories off the course by two of the game's biggest stars that dominated the headlines. Those stars, of course, are Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, each of which made the headlines for completely different reasons. Nonetheless, they had the golf world talking for days: Woods had a massive error in judgement and Mickelson decided to pass on the U.S. Open. While there's no debating that Woods made a mistake, the discussion is still open whether or not Mickelson is also making one. This isn't the first time that Mickelson has put his family first. He interrupted his U.S. Open schedule in 2013 to attend his daughter's graduation from, ahem, middle school -- a move which at the time I found absurd, because it was, well, middle school -- but it showed then where his priorities were, and those priorities apparently have not changed.

As much as we, the fans of sport in general, feel we have an ownership stake in the athletes we root for, that they owe something to us, we really don't have a say of when and where they choose to show up. It's different in team sports. Those guys are under contract and they do answer to someone, but golfers have little restrictions on when and where they

I mentioned last week that interest in an event is often driven by the stars involved and how well they are playing. Although there were some stars involved in play on Sunday afternoon at the Memorial, it was stories off the course by two of the game's biggest stars that dominated the headlines. Those stars, of course, are Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, each of which made the headlines for completely different reasons. Nonetheless, they had the golf world talking for days: Woods had a massive error in judgement and Mickelson decided to pass on the U.S. Open. While there's no debating that Woods made a mistake, the discussion is still open whether or not Mickelson is also making one. This isn't the first time that Mickelson has put his family first. He interrupted his U.S. Open schedule in 2013 to attend his daughter's graduation from, ahem, middle school -- a move which at the time I found absurd, because it was, well, middle school -- but it showed then where his priorities were, and those priorities apparently have not changed.

As much as we, the fans of sport in general, feel we have an ownership stake in the athletes we root for, that they owe something to us, we really don't have a say of when and where they choose to show up. It's different in team sports. Those guys are under contract and they do answer to someone, but golfers have little restrictions on when and where they play, therefore, they control their schedule. Most guys will play as much as they can while still remaining productive, but there are times when life gets in the way of golf. Sometimes DJ falls down the stairs or Tiger does something stupid. Sometimes, you have to make a tough decision. Phil Mickelson is running out of opportunities to capture the career Grand Slam, but his family is obviously more important. You certainly can't blame him for feeling that way.

As for the U.S. Open, it will be fine without Mickelson. Sure, a Mickelson run at the Open would be a thrilling storyline, but it's not like he would be anywhere near a favorite to win this year. His absence from the competition at least won't be as notable as Johnson's at the Masters. When these guys first join the PGA Tour, golf sometimes gets in the way of life. As they get older, life sometimes gets in the way of golf.

This week:
Fed Ex St. Jude Classic - TPC Southwind - Germantown, TN

Last Year:
Daniel Berger shot a final-round 67 on his way to a three-stroke victory over three players, including Phil Mickelson.

Players to Consider

Brooks Koepka

Koepka has yet to win this event, but he has come close twice and he has played well in all of his three starts here: Koepka was part of a three-way tie for second last year, finished third the year prior, and has never finished outside the top-20 in three career starts at this event.

Phil Mickelson

With no U.S. Open on the horizon, Mickelson can fully focus on this event, and that might be what he needs to get over the hump here. Mickelson didn't play this event much early in his career, but he played here the past four years and has played very well during that span, notching two runner-ups, a third-place finish and a T11.

Seung-Yul Noh

Noh has been all over the map this season, often playing well the week after missing a cut only to miss a cut the following week, so we can't take much from his recent play. However, we can learn a lot from his event history. Noh has three top-10s in four starts at this event, with his best showing coming in 2015 when he finished T3.

Billy Horschel

Horschel skipped this event last year, but his streak of three consecutive top-10s here is still alive. Horschel hasn't played his best since winning the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago, but that should change when he sets foot on TPC Southwind.

Players to Avoid

Sung Kang

Kang is having a nice season, and when looking at his track record here, it certainly could be one of those cases where a golfer is better now than he was when he played here in the past. However, Kang hasn't even been close here. In three starts, he's missed two cuts and finished T73. It's a long way from there to contending.

Kyle Stanley

Stanley is also having a nice season, but he also has a hurdle to get over at this event. Stanley has played this event four times and he's missed the cut twice and finished inside the top-50 just once.

Graeme McDowell

If McDowell weren't as accomplished as he is, you could make the case that he's having a pretty good year, but considering he's a major champion with multiple professional victories, his resume this season is just average. McDowell has missed just one cut in 10 starts and he has finished inside the top-30 seven times, but he has zero top-10s. His track record here is lacking as well, all of which equals a pass this week.

Fabian Gomez

Gomez won this event in 2015, but he missed the cut in the start preceding and his one start since. Gomez is also in the midst of a terrible season, with only one top-20 in 18 starts. He enters this week having missed the cut in four of his past five starts.

Jim Furyk

Furyk hasn't played this event since 1994 and there's probably a reason for that. Most often, when a golfer skips an event, it's because he doesn't feel comfortable on that course. Whether or not that's the case, there's no debating that Furyk's game is in terrible shape right now. Furyk enters having missed his past five cuts.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: David Lingmerth (T12) - $131,100; Season - $6,316,162

This week:
Brooks Koepka – A quick note about last week's pick: an astute reader pointed out that I had already taken Kuchar, so in the comments section, I switched to Lingmerth. No such problem this week, as Brooks Koepka is in the clear. Koepka has a great track record here and his form is good enough to win.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 2736
Rank: 22,187

This Week:

Group A: Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott

Group B:
Phil Mickelson, William McGirt, Francesco Molinari, Harris English

Group C:
Brooks Koepka, Billy Horschel

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Stewart Cink - (T10); Streak - 4

This week:
Brooks Koepka - I generally like to target guys with long track records at an event for this format, but those that have had a lot of success making the cut here aren't exactly reliable guys, like Ben Crane and Camilo Villegas. With that in mind, I'm doubling up on Koepka, who is 3-for-3 in cuts made and quite frankly, has never come close to missing the cut at this event.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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