Weekly Preview: The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

Sherwood CC
Thousand Oaks, CA  

The PGA Tour heads to Thousand Oaks, CA as the portion of the schedule formerly known as "The Asian Swing" takes up residence in the U.S. due to the ongoing pandemic. Unfortunately, that means once again we have no course history. On the bright side, many of the players in the field have already teed it up during the fall portion of the season, which means we can at least gauge current form. Even better, this is one of a few fall events that boasts a strong field. It may feel like we get a lot of strong fields in the fall because we had one just last week, but don't get used to it. Outside of The Masters a month from now, the fields for upcoming tournaments figure to be rather depleted as the top guys take a break. Now, that could change if some of the bigger names decide to use the Houston Open as a tune-up for The Masters, but I can't imagine there will be a lot of the top guys playing the week before a major, even under these unusual circumstances. As for this week, it's a smaller field and there will be no cut, which will affect OAD strategy.

LAST YEAR

Tiger Woods shot a final-round 67 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Hideki Matsuyama.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (9-1)

As was evidenced this past week at the CJ Cup, it's probably not a good idea to bet on golfers with single-digit odds right no. It's not that they can't win, but this time of year can be goofy, and we just don't know where anyone's head is at. Rahm was 10-1 this past week and he played well enough to finish in the top 20, but he never threatened to win. He's down to 9-1, and there's nothing backing that other than weight his name carries.

Justin Thomas (10-1)

It's almost as if oddsmakers took the sheet from last week and just moved everyone up one notch after Dustin Johnson withdrew. Thomas was 12-1 this past week, and like Rahm, he finished in the top 20 but ended up nowhere near the lead. Thomas has played well over the past couple months, but at this price, there's just not enough value.

Xander Schauffele (10-1)

Finally, we get to someone whose odds are based more on recent play than his name. Don't get me wrong, plenty of people know who Schauffele is, and he gets rave reviews among those who cover the game. It's just that his listing as the co-second-favorite comes more from the second-place result he posted last week than the inherent notion he will succeed based on who he is.

THE NEXT TIER

Matthew Wolff (18-1)

Wolff looked like a good value at 22-1 this past week, as he entered as one of -- if not the -- hottest golfers on the planet. However, he crashed early with an opening-round 80. It didn't get much better as the week wore on, but it's not out of the ordinary for a player to check out after a disastrous opening round. While that's not a great trait for any golfer, it certainly doesn't prevent that player from bouncing back the following week, and there's plenty reason to believe Wolff can do that. The oddsmakers have faith, as despite the dud his odds are even lower than they were last week.

Tyrrell Hatton (25-1)

It feels like I'm chasing last week's result a bit here, but these events in the fall don't give us a lot to go on, especially when they switch venues and there is no course history. Hatton is a good choice, as when he caught fire earlier in the year he managed to keep the momentum going for more than one week. It doesn't hurt that he is coming off a T3 at the CJ Cup.

Harris English (40-1)

I'm getting into long-shot territory a little early here, but considering how last week played out with no favorites near the lead, I think it's wise to search for value down the board. English finished solo 10th this past week, and that's after an opening round 75. He wouldn't have won, even with a decent opening round, but it was good to see him fight to the end and grab some momentum heading into this week's event.                              

LONG SHOTS

Bubba Watson (60-1)

I generally don't like suggesting Bubba on tracks where he hasn't won in the past, but I'll make an exception this week. Watson seems to be trending in the right direction, as he's coming off a T7 this past week thanks to going 14-under-par under over his final three rounds.

Cameron Smith (80-1)

Smith has been through some crazy swings in his short time on the PGA Tour. He's played his way out of the top 125, and he's earned over $3 million in one season. He has two wins on his resume, which prove that when he's on, he can close it out. He's trending in the right direction and is coming off a T11 at the CJ Cup.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Like last week's pick, Matthew Wolff, this one seems too easy, but when things look too good, they often don't play out like you'd expect. Nonetheless, you have to go where the numbers take you, and this week, they lead to Schauffele, who is coming off a great showing and rarely shrinks against big fields.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tyrrell Hatton - For those that don't want to go big, Hatton is probably the best target. He is coming off a good showing this and he's not a guy that you worry about using too early in the season because he has yet to establish himself as a serious threat in the big events.

Lightly-owned Pick: Bubba Watson - Any OAD players that have spent more than one year in the game know that there are a few spots each season where it's wise to take Watson. This isn't one of those spots, but it could be if he plays well like I expect him to do. Most OAD players will be saving Watson for early 2021, so if you're on board the train, this would be a spot to get a jump on the field.

Buyer Beware: Tiger Woods - He's the defending champ, but it's a new course, so that hardly matters, even though he knows his way around Sherwood. He's the biggest name in the field and many would like to see him win, but he hasn't really contended in an event since January. Perhaps, with The Masters on the horizon, he'll up his game, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Last Week: Patrick Cantlay - (T38) - $40,560

Season Total: $751,151  

This Week: Tyrrell Hatton - For as much grief as I gave Schauffele prior to this past week, I do think he holds a lot of value down the road, which is why I'll pass on him here. Hatton is the perfect type of player for an event like this, as he's not a guy you would save for a major but has enough game to end up on top in a field like this.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($11,600)
Middle Range: Matthew Wolff ($10,200)
Lower Range: Cameron Smith ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

Streak: 3

This Week: N/A