Weekly Recap: Gleamin' Niemann

Joaquin Niemann was the top amateur in the world as a teenager. He won a PGA Tour event at age 20. His arrow was pointing straight up. Then the meteoric rise stalled at that point almost three years ago. That's not to say Niemann wasn't a very good player, perched in the top 50 in the world rankings with occasional spots on the first page of the leaderboard.

When a golfer has done so much so young, like a Tiger Woods or a Jordan Spieth, there are expectations. But what we don't always consider with an international player -- Niemann is from Chile -- are all the speed bumps the American players don't face: adjusting to a different country, maybe without family around, learning a new language and adjusting to different customs, all while traveling from hotel room to hotel room.

It took five long years on Tour for Niemann to break through with the biggest win of his career, a wire-to-wire triumph in one of the best fields in years at the Genesis Invitational on Sunday at Riviera Country Club.

Niemann couldn't maintain his torrid 63-63 pace from Thursday-Friday but he also was never really in serious trouble on Sunday and finished at 19-under-par, two strokes better than Collin Morikawa and the emerging Cameron Young. Niemann, by only one shot, missed tying the all-time tournament record that has stood for 34 years since Lanny Wadkins won in 1985. That's the longest-standing tournament scoring record on Tour.

Because Niemann has been a fixture for so long already, it's hard to remember he's still only 23, and will be 23 for another seven months. That's younger than Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns and just about anybody not named Matthew Wolff.

Viewed in a vacuum, having two PGA Tour wins and being ranked 20th in the world at 23 puts your career arc in better position than 99.9 percent of the other players on Tour. Niemann also has three runners-up on his resume, two of them coming in playoff losses.

What has held Niemann back, if you want to call all that being held back, has been his short game. It's been his wedge or his putter at varying points. Right now, the wedge is in very good shape, as evidenced by his chip-in eagle on 11 that all but ended the competitive portion of the tournament. The ball striking has always been solid. And when that's the case, it usually comes down to making some putts. At Riviera, Niemann made some putts, ranking 26th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. Not great, but when combined with first in Approach, second in Around-the-Green and first in Tee-to-Green, well, that's plenty.

Niemann has not made a habit of racking up top-10 results like some guys, and we shouldn't expect that the wins and high finishes will come in greater frequency. More than a win every three years? Sure. But there have been some long gaps in Niemann's game, or rather his results. He's played in 12 majors without a top-20. He made all four cuts last year but his best was 30th at the PGA Championship. That's Niemann: he doesn't miss many cuts, but also isn't in the mix as often as you'd think.

Will Niemann win a major? Maybe, but maybe not. Will he become a top-10 player? Maybe he'll crack the top 10 without being a fixture inside. That's what we think.

Niemann's arrow will continue to point up. Maybe just not straight up. 

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Collin Morikawa
We hadn't seen Morikawa in six weeks, since the year-opening Tournament of Champions. He did play in the Middle East (not Saudi Arabia) but his game looked almost as sharp as ever as he tied for second. He continues to put pressure on Jon Rahm for No. 1 in the world and there could be a flip as early as next month. Neither is playing this week at The Honda Classic. Morikawa definitely has some tracks more favorable to his game than others, but he warrants lineup consideration every time he plays.

Cameron Young
The 24-year-old New Yorker was languishing on the Korn Ferry Tour less than a year ago when he suddenly won in back-to-back weeks, elevating him to the PGA Tour for this season. And then his second Tour start last fall and only fifth lifetime, he was runner-up at the Sanderson Farms. Young showed toughness in hanging with the big boys all weekend over the final 36 holes, and he nearly tracked down Niemann before settling into co-runner-up with Morikawa. H zoomed from 113th in the world to knocking on the door of the top-50 at No. 53. It's one thing to come close at a so-so Fall Swing event; Young did it in one of the strongest fields of the year. He is one of the absolute longest hitters on Tour, ranking fourth in distance at an average of more than 320 yards.

Viktor Hovland
Hovland did what Hovland does – ranking first in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, seventh in Approach – to tie for fourth. He still has to get better at his short game, though it appeared to be vastly improved all week. What he does well is superb enough to put him in the conversation most weeks. It was encouraging to see Hovland in the mix in such a quality field after all his recent wins have come in far weaker fields.
 
Adam Scott
Let's put the narrative to bed: Scott finished second in the field in putting with a new long putter and tied for fourth at a track he historically has done well. He won't putt that well every week, but he also ranked 18th last year. The biggest issue with Scott is his once-elite wedge game – he's now ranked 165th in SG: Around-the-Green -- and since he doesn't play so much anymore at age 41, how good can it get? On the other hand, being ranked 34th in the world when just about everyone else plays more than you is not to be overlooked.

Justin Thomas
Another good week for Thomas, who now has three top-10s and a top-20 in four 2022 starts with this solo sixth. But all that matters with the top players is wins, and Thomas hasn't won in almost a year, since last March's PLAYERS. He's clearly playing well enough to end that streak at any time.

Maverick McNealy
While McNealy has four higher finishes than his tie for seventh at the Genesis, this may be his best performance on Tour given the field. But let's also note that that all but one of those big weeks took place on the West Coast. McNealy is only 24 and appears to be coming, but we'd like to see some East Coast success before jumping fully on board. That said, he jumped to 68th in the world rankings, one slot off his career best.

Rory McIlroy
We can't call McIlroy's T10 a backdoor top-10 since he spent much of a 68-67 weekend in the top-10. In his past eight worldwide starts dating to last season's playoffs, he has a win, five top-10s and three top-20s. McIlroy quietly is positioned at No. 5 in the world, and that's ahead of a lot of world-class golfers.

Cameron Tringale
Here are Tringale's last seven starts going back to the fall: T2-MC-T7-MC-T3-MC-T13. The top-15 at Riviera with all four rounds under par moved him to a career-best 47th in the rankings. Now 34 years old, his game does not have a statistical weakness. Tringale has never won on Tour, but he's never played better. However, if you believe in the every-other-week progression, a missed cut is coming this week at the Honda.

Paul Casey
Casey is one of the most inconspicuous top players year after year. Now in his 40s, he slipped outside the top 25 of the OWGR heading into his first PGA Tour start of 2022. And quietly, again, Casey got the job done with a tie for 15th. There will be a lot of bargain prices next to Casey's name this season; he was only $7,600 on DraftKings for the Genesis Invitational.

Jon Rahm
Late Friday, Rahm had to make a five-foot par putt to make the cut. Two days later, following a Sunday 65, he tied for 21st. Even his bad week, when his long stretch of shooting under-par rounds ended, he notched a top-25.

Jordan Spieth
Spieth jumped out to the top of the leaderboard early on Thursday, but Riviera really isn't a good fit for his game. He settled into a tie for 26th in his 10th start at this tournament. He has just two top-10s.

Sahith Theegala
We were looking closely how Theegala would follow up the biggest week of his PGA Tour in a close call at Phoenix, especially since this was a home game with many friends and family in attendance. He made the cut and tied for 48th, which for us qualifies as another successful week. Theegala inched up to 159th in the world.
 
Rickie Fowler
Fowler made it to the weekend to justify his sponsor's invite, though he only tied for 55th. Hey, baby steps. Putting has been his big issue and it continued this week as he ranked 67th in the field. On the other hand, that's actually a bit of an improvement. We'll see how he does coming up at the Honda, where he won the title in 2017. A missed cut would be two steps back.
  
Dustin Johnson
Johnson is quickly tumbling down the top-10 in the rankings and could be out very soon with this latest missed cut. He fell to ninth in the world. He hasn't had so much as a top-5 in more than a year. It's been seven years since he's been out of the top-10. It's coming.

Sam Burns
Burns missed his third cut in a row, which is definitely something to keep an eye on with a young player even though it's a very small sample size.

Corey Conners
Conners missed three cuts in all of 2021 but has now missed three already in 2022. It's not like a quality ball-striker to go into an extended slump. But it can happen.

Talor Gooch
Gooch followed up a disastrous final round in Phoenix with a 77 on Thursday and he easily missed the cut.

Byeong Hun An
It's been tough times for the former European Tour Rookie of the Year (2015). He not only had fallen into the 300s in the world rankings, he lost his PGA Tour card after last season and couldn't even get it back in the Korn Ferry playoffs. But now at age 30, a glimmer of hope. An won the LECOM Suncoast Classic on the KF Tour on Sunday two weeks after a bad missed cut. The win gave him a big jump in the world rankings up to 225th.