With the sports world paused due to the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, we decided to take a look back and redo the first round of several past NHL Entry Drafts. Each article will feature a brief summary of who the team selected at the time, and who we believe they would select now in hindsight.
Part 6 -- featuring the class of 2016, is below...
(Note: team needs are not taken into account at the time of selection)
1- Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews (F, ZSC-Switzerland), Original Pick: Matthews: This was an easy pick for the Leafs. Matthews turned down both the NCAA and CHL and spent his draft year playing in the Swiss league.
2- Winnipeg Jets: Matthew Tkachuk (F, London-OHL), Original Pick: Patrik Laine (F, Tappara-Liiga): Laine is one of the best goal scorers in the world but he's notoriously streaky. I'd prefer the all-around game of Tkachuk. It's close.
3- Columbus Blue Jackets: Laine, Original Pick: Pierre-Luc Dubois (F, Cape Breton-QMJHL): Laine is better than Dubois but the PLD selection has worked out just fine for the Jackets. He's their No. 1 center.
4- Edmonton Oilers: Dubois, Original Pick: Jesse Puljujarvi (F, Karpat-Liiga): Puljujarvi was always expected to go third. There's a legendary rumor that if that was indeed the case, Edmonton had a deal in place to send this pick to the Rangers for Ryan McDonagh, at which point New York would have selected Clayton Keller. Yet once Columbus pulled a fast one, the Oilers
With the sports world paused due to the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, we decided to take a look back and redo the first round of several past NHL Entry Drafts. Each article will feature a brief summary of who the team selected at the time, and who we believe they would select now in hindsight.
Part 6 -- featuring the class of 2016, is below...
(Note: team needs are not taken into account at the time of selection)
1- Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews (F, ZSC-Switzerland), Original Pick: Matthews: This was an easy pick for the Leafs. Matthews turned down both the NCAA and CHL and spent his draft year playing in the Swiss league.
2- Winnipeg Jets: Matthew Tkachuk (F, London-OHL), Original Pick: Patrik Laine (F, Tappara-Liiga): Laine is one of the best goal scorers in the world but he's notoriously streaky. I'd prefer the all-around game of Tkachuk. It's close.
3- Columbus Blue Jackets: Laine, Original Pick: Pierre-Luc Dubois (F, Cape Breton-QMJHL): Laine is better than Dubois but the PLD selection has worked out just fine for the Jackets. He's their No. 1 center.
4- Edmonton Oilers: Dubois, Original Pick: Jesse Puljujarvi (F, Karpat-Liiga): Puljujarvi was always expected to go third. There's a legendary rumor that if that was indeed the case, Edmonton had a deal in place to send this pick to the Rangers for Ryan McDonagh, at which point New York would have selected Clayton Keller. Yet once Columbus pulled a fast one, the Oilers declined the deal and took Puljujarvi. They probably should have made the trade.
5- Vancouver Canucks: Charlie McAvoy (D, Boston University-NCAA), Original Pick: Olli Juolevi (D, London-OHL): Juolevi was a high-end prospect at the time (and is still a good one) but he's been so banged up as a pro it's hard to get a read on his future potential. McAvoy has been logging heavy minutes in all situations for Boston for years now.
6- Calgary Flames: Alex DeBrincat (F, Erie-OHL), Original Pick: Tkachuk: It seems laughable now, but at the time DeBrincat slipped to the second round because of his size and the fact teams thought his production was inflated due to playing alongside Connor McDavid and Dylan Strome. He's had a lousy season (18 goals, 45 points in 70 games) for Chicago but this is a guy who tallied 41 goals a year ago and won't turn 23 years of age until December.
7- Arizona Coyotes: Clayton Keller (F, US NTDP-USHL), Original Pick: Keller: Keller was named to the NHL All-Rookie Team in 2017-18 after posting 23 goals and 65 points in 82 games. He followed up that performance with just 47 points a season ago and he had just 44 points this season before the stoppage. He better find his game in short order because his brand new six-year deal at a whopping $7.15 million cap hit begins next season.
8- Buffalo Sabres: Adam Fox (D, US NTDP-USHL), Original Pick: Alexander Nylander (F, Mississauga-OHL): Fox was drafted in the third round by Calgary and traded to Carolina before eventually ending up in New York, where he has had a brilliant rookie season (42 points in 70 games) for the Rangers. His vision and patience with the puck are both elite. Health permitting, he stands a good chance of developing into the Rangers' best defenseman since Brian Leetch. Nylander was a high-floor prospect who is just now establishing himself as an NHL regular. He's been a major disappointment.
9- Montreal Canadiens: Mikhail Sergachev (D, Windsor-OHL), Original Pick: Sergachev: Montreal took Sergachev ninth overall and traded him to Tampa Bay straight up for Jonathan Drouin before he ever played a game with the team. I'd probably rather have Drouin if you told me both guys were going to be fully healthy moving forward. Sergachev has scored no fewer than 32 points in his first three NHL seasons.
10- Colorado Avalanche: Carter Hart (G, Everett-WHL), Original Pick: Tyson Jost (F, Penticton-BCHL): Hart looks like an above-average NHL starter and those guys always go high in potential redrafts. He ended up going 48th overall to the Flyers before finishing up one of the best junior careers in recent memory. Jost can play center and wing but has struggled to generate consistent offense as a pro. He probably needs a change of scenery.
11- Ottawa Senators: Puljujarvi, Original Pick: Logan Brown (F, Windsor-OHL): The fact I still have Puljujarvi this high is a testament to his overall ability and my belief in his potential. The Oilers didn't honor his trade request so Puljujarvi returned to Finland this past season and posted 24 goals and 53 points in 56 games. He will likely be traded before next season begins and I still see a future potential second-liner here. Brown is long on talent and short on production.
12- New Jersey Devils: Jakob Chychrun (D, Sarnia-OHL), Original Pick: Michael McLeod (F, Mississauga-OHL): I wouldn't be crazy about paying Chychrun $4.6 million through 2024-25 like the Coyotes will be but there's a definite scenario in which he becomes worth that. He's pretty underrated. McLeod needs a trade and even that may not be enough. He's been unproductive at both the NHL and AHL levels in the New Jersey system.
13- Carolina Hurricanes: Samuel Girard (D, Shawinigan-QMJHL), Original Pick: Jake Bean (D, Calgary-WHL): Girard will never be able to play massive minutes at even strength because he's so small but he's extremely deceptive and an asset on the power play. Bean has been one of the AHL's best defensemen the past two seasons but has yet to earn a full-time role in Carolina.
14- Boston Bruins: Filip Hronek (D, Mountfield HK-Czech), Original Pick: McAvoy: Hronek isn't a perfect player but he has his uses. In many ways, he's similar to Girard. He's an offense-first defenseman who struggles to defend at times. Detroit should continue to give him tons of reps at even strength while the team rebuilds.
15- Minnesota Wild: Jordan Kyrou (F, Sarnia-OHL), Original Pick: Luke Kunin (F, University of Wisconsin-NCAA): Kyrou never should have fallen to 35th overall on draft day and that remains the case today. I'm a big believer in his potential even though he hasn't broken through at the NHL level yet. Kunin is also trending in the right direction.
16- Arizona Coyotes: Henrik Borgstrom (F, HIFK Jr-Finland), Original Pick: Chychrun: Like Kyrou, I refuse to give up on Borgstrom despite a lack of production at the NHL level to date. I'm interested in seeing if Florida makes him available in a trade given the fact they have a ton of quality forwards on their NHL roster.
17- Nashville Predators: Sam Steel (F, Regina-WHL), Original Pick: Dante Fabbro (D, Penticton-BCHL): Steel remains a work in progress but I think his floor is a useful third-line center. Fabbro should provide Nashville with plenty of years of solid, yet unspectacular service.
18- Winnipeg Jets: Kunin, Original Pick: Logan Stanley (D, Windsor-OHL): Kunin posted 15 goals in 63 games the Wild this season prior to the stoppage. He's shown more offensively than I expected when he was originally drafted. Stanley wasn't the worst pick in Round 1, but he's up there. 6-foot-7 defensemen are in high demand so it's not a surprise that he went so high.
19- New York Islanders: Brown, Original Pick: Kieffer Bellows (F, US NTDP-USHL): Ottawa seems to have no interest in giving Brown a legitimate shot so perhaps they plan on moving him. Bellows has a great shot and had a decent AHL season (22 goals in 52 games) this year but he's so one-dimensional that I'm not particularly high on his long-term potential.
20- Detroit Red Wings: Fabbro, Original Pick: Dennis Cholowski (D, Chilliwack-BCHL): Cholowski was a bit of a reach at the time. He's a good offensive defenseman but his defensive struggles limit his ceiling.
21- Carolina Hurricanes: Kale Clague (D, Brandon-WHL), Original Pick: Julien Gauthier (F, Val-d'Or-QMJHL): Clague got into four games with the Kings late in the season. He's a skilled, undersized rear guard. Gauthier finally broke through at the AHL level this year and was traded to the Rangers in exchange for defenseman Joey Keane.
22- Philadelphia Flyers: Juolevi, Original Pick: German Rubtsov (F, Russia U18-MHL): Juolevi was an ugly pick for Vancouver at No. 5 overall but he would be a worthwhile risk for the Flyers this late. Rubtsov posted six goals and 10 points in 14 games for AHL Lehigh Valley last season before getting injured. He returned this season and finished with two goals and 13 points in 42 games.
23- Florida Panthers: Jesper Bratt (F, AIK-Sweden), Original Pick: Borgstrom: Bratt isn't a star but he's a good player for a sixth-rounder. He's a third-liner who can play on the power play and should be good for 35-40 points a season.
24- Anaheim Ducks: Jost, Original Pick: Max Jones (F, London-OHL): I touched on Jost above. Jones is a physical specimen who is best suited in a depth/energy role.
25- Dallas Stars: Nylander, Original Pick: Riley Tufte (F, Fargo-USHL): Tufte is the worst pick of the first round. He legitimately regressed over the course of three seasons at Minnesota-Duluth. He probably wouldn't have been worth an entry-level deal if not for his draft pedigree. He had three goals in 53 AHL games in his first pro season.
26- St. Louis Blues: Cholowski, Original Pick: Tage Thompson (F, University of Connecticut-NCAA): Thompson simply never developed following two productive seasons at UConn. I was high on him for a while but I think it's clear at this point it simply isn't going to happen. He's now in the Buffalo system.
27- Tampa Bay Lightning: Victor Mete (D, London-OHL), Original Pick: Brett Howden (F, Moose Jaw-WHL): Mete is a boring player but he's an NHL regular and that's a good outcome at this point in the draft. Howden has been an NHL regular for the Rangers for the past two seasons but his underlying numbers are pretty ugly.
28- Washington Capitals: Gauthier, Original Pick: Lucas Johansen (D, Kelowna-WHL): Gauthier has yet to score an NHL goal but he's a burner with a decent set of hands. It will come. Johansen moves well but is limited outside of his foot speed and was injured for nearly the entire season.
29- Boston Bruins: Bellows, Original Pick: Trent Frederic (F, US NTDP-USHL): Bellows faces extremely long odds to reach his ceiling but he's a talented goal scorer. He needs a quality center alongside him. Frederic is a depth guy who might be a third or fourth-liner.
30- Anaheim Ducks: Tyler Benson (F, Edmonton-WHL), Original Pick: Steel: Benson has always had a ton of potential but has been constantly injured. He should get a full-time look with the Oilers soon.
JUST MISSED
- Jonathan Dahlen (F, Timra-Sweden)
- Janne Kuokkanen (F, Karpat-Liiga)
- Ryan Lindgren (D, US NTDP-USHL)
- Josh Mahura (D, Red Deer-WHL)
- Joseph Woll (G, US NTDP-USHL)
