Fantasy Hockey Draft Mistakes & Early-Season Evaluations: How to Recover Fast
The NHL always seems to have a decent amount of parity, but it's been an even bigger thing this year. A month into the season, it's fair to consider some slow starts legitimate, and it's equally reasonable to expect strong teams to stay strong.
Common Fantasy Hockey Draft Errors Revealed
With all this mixing in the standings, it's likely thrown a lot of people's draft strategy a curveball. Slam-dunk teams like the Panthers and Oilers have been unable to shake off slow starts. A bounce-back year for the Rangers hasn't materialized. The Capitals and Blues are way farther down the standings than expected. Meanwhile, some rebuilds have looked to turn a corner.
The standings are pretty tightly packed still. That's to be expected early in the season -- no one has had enough time to go on a long winning streak to gain separation. It's going to be a turbulent season if it stays that close all year. The good news is that a lot of teams are playing pretty well. Only a couple of teams are truly bad so far, while many are right in the middle at NHL .500 (one standings point per game). For fans of the trade deadline, it could be a tough year to do business. Cap space won't be a problem. However, there's shaping up to be just a few sellers and a lot of potential buyers. Old teams clinging to contention windows won't be able to stock up, and young teams trying to get a taste of the playoffs won't want to part with their key veterans.
All in all, this makes for some really exciting hockey. Historically good matchups have become blowouts -- just look at what the Avalanche did to the Oilers on Saturday night. Meanwhile, seeing four or five teams that have been the league's punching bags for years start to fight back is a wonderful thing. Sure, we'll get sick of these teams being successful eventually, but years like this one, where everything is in transition, make for great viewing.
Mid-Season Tactics to Maximize Team Strengths
To the waiver wire, where it's long past time to take Will Smith seriously. He's playing on Macklin Celebrini's wing, which has been a great spot for any player this year as Celebrini competes for the league lead in points as a 19-year-old. Smith hasn't been that explosive, but he's maintained a point-per-game pace so far. That's been fueled by eight points over his last seven games. He's still out there in nearly half of Yahoo leagues as of Sunday afternoon, but people are catching on fast. Smith won't be free forever -- I was lucky to get him in a trade for Sean Monahan a couple of weeks ago.
If you want a different Will and a different way, check out the Rangers' Will Cuylle. Like many of his teammates, he had a slow start to the year, but he's overcome it with six points, 17 hits and 10 blocked shots over his last seven games. That category coverage is Cuylle's value, as he won't score at an elite pace, but he is willing to throw the body. Add in top-six minutes and power-play time, and he's looking like a valuable option in a wide range of fantasy formats.
Another slow starter who has found his way is Ducks defenseman Olen Zellweger. It certainly helps playing in a high-end offense, but Zellweger went from one helper in his first nine outings to four points over his last six games. He's added a total of 19 blocked shots and has maintained a plus-11 rating. With Jackson LaCombe doing fine but not outstanding so far, Zellweger's recent hot stretch could make him a more intriguing player if he's gearing up for a full-blown breakout season.
Fantasy managers might be tired of Andrei Svechnikov not living up to his status as a No. 2 pick (2018), but that doesn't mean he's useless. He's out there in just under half of leagues, and he's started to recover with four goals and three assists over his last seven games. A brief stint in the bottom six appears to have lit a fire under him. Svechnikov's propensity for penalties isn't a great thing on the ice, but it helps add to his grit in fantasy, as does his usual hit production, though he has just 14 of those over 15 outings this year. He's going to be in the Hurricanes' top six more often than not, so he's definitely worth keeping in mind if you have room for a 50-point winger who can go on a hot streak.
The Blackhawks have taken a massive leap forward this year, and it's newcomer Andre Burakovsky who has helped create synergy in the top six. Burakovsky was acquired from the Kraken in the offseason after three injury-riddled and largely unimpressive seasons. However, he's now alongside Connor Bedard at both even strength and on the power play. Burakovsky had two points Sunday, giving him 10 points (three on the power play) over his last seven games, a span that includes four multi-point efforts. He's another offense-only option, but that kind of production, especially with the man advantage, cannot be ignored.
The Blues' defense is supposed to be a strength, but they've had the worst goal differential in the league so far. That will do some damage to any of their blueliners' plus-minus ratings, but Justin Faulk produces enough in other areas to help. He's put up four points over five games in November while adding 16 blocked shots and six hits in that span. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged more power-play ice time (2:14 per game) than Cam Fowler (1:59). Faulk's non-scoring production will be steady even if his offense goes cold, but he looks like the best bet on this blue line in any case.
Another blueliner with a similar profile is Filip Hronek. Offense hasn't been as consistent lately for Hronek, who has five assists in his last nine games. In the same span, he has 16 hits, 11 blocked shots, a plus-1 rating and 15 shots on net. The Canucks' injury woes have led to them heavily sheltering their third pairing, which results in massive ice time for Hronek, who has been above 22 minutes in all but two games this year. His usual pace is about 40 points in a full season, and he'll continue to be on the second power-play unit, creating a safe floor.
You can also look at Evander Kane for both offense and physicality now that he's in a top-line role for the Canucks. He has six points, 26 shots on net, 16 PIM and 10 hits over his last eight contests. The key here is to stay in a prominent spot in the lineup. Vancouver's lack of forward depth was a concern going into the season, and injuries have been an early problem. However, Kane started the year in a middle-six spot, but he's earned more ice time through strong play. He could be in for a bounce-back year after injuries ruined three of his four seasons with the Oilers.
Speaking of the Oilers, things may not be going well, but their signing of Jack Roslovic has worked out just fine. I liked that signing for the player immediately, and Roslovic has responded with seven points and 19 shots on net over his last seven games. A top-six job has helped his offense, and he'll keep it for a while longer while Zach Hyman (wrist) continues to work his way back. Expect Roslovic to slip, especially with less power-play time, once Hyman returns, but I don't think a full drop-off is coming. Roslovic has displayed strong performance when he's around other good players, so it best suits the Oilers to keep him in the top six.
Managing Goalie Load in Deep Fantasy Leagues
I'm enough of a believer in the Sharks' recent turnaround to have Yaroslav Askarov on this list. He's getting half of the starts, sharing the crease with Alex Nedeljkovic. Askarov has won his last three outings with victories over the Avalanche, Kraken and Panthers, allowing four goals on 107 shots in that span. The Sharks' defense still leaks a lot of shots, but if Askarov has found a rhythm, that will lead to stronger save percentages for him. He may not be a steal-a-game goalie yet, but he has that potential, and he should get plenty of support from a young and rising offense.
I'd like to see Akira Schmid get more starts while Adin Hill (lower body) remains out. The Golden Knights have taken a different approach, with Schmid seeing half the starts in a timeshare with Carl Lindbom. Schmid has still performed pretty well, going 2-1-1 with a 2.46 GAA and a .903 save percentage over his last four games. He plays behind a pretty good defense, and the Vegas offense is strong, too. Schmid's worth a streaming look at a minimum -- I'm already holding onto him in a few places where my goalie depth has been thinned out.
One more thought on highly competitive seasons, and that's that things can change on a whim. I'd expect a few of the slumping teams to find their way within the next month or soon. On the other side, there will be a team or two that burns too bright and too fast before falling down the standings. Experience makes all the difference: teams expected to be good have players who know how to win, while young teams coming out of a rebuild don't know how to pace themselves yet. They can also have different goals. Rebuilding teams may simply want to make the playoffs, while more veteran teams know the expectations are higher. In any case, this could be a memorable year filled with breakouts from young players. Do your best to ride the highs and lows for individual players and teams as a whole as we head into the second month of the season.
Stuck between two players available on the waiver wire? Check out the NHL Player Comparison Tool or the NHL Trending Players to help break the tiebreaker on your waiver wire decisions.
