This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Vanessa Demopoulos (7-4-0) v. Jinh Yu Frey (11-6-0)
Vanessa Demopoulos - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 59" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Jinh Yu Frey - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Demopoulos is dangerous on the mat and will likely be looking to get it there early. She tends to struggle with her wrestling, so getting it down will be an issue. Frey has good wrestling but would be wise to keep it on the feet where she will hold a considerable advantage. Without an early finish, I do not expect a high score and would avoid both for DFS purposes.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Frey
Brian Kelleher (24-13-0) v. Mario Bautista (9-2-0)
Brian Kelleher - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 24 wins
Mario Bautista - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Bautista will have the edge in volume while Kelleher will hold an advantage in power and grappling. I expect the fight to take place primarily on the feet, but Kelleher would be wise to get the fight down. If Bautista avoids the bullrush and can keep the fight on the feet and at range, he should be able to pick Kelleher apart and take a decision. The odds for the fight should be closer, maybe even flipped. I like Kelleher as a GPP punt for DFS. Bautista could struggle to hit value in a decision win and should only be used in GPP as well.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Kelleher
JP Buys (9-4-0) v. Cody Durden (12-4-1)
JP Buys - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Cody Durden - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Buys has struggled in his two UFC fights, getting knocked down seven times and failing to get anything going on the mat. His best chance to win is getting the fight to the mat and finding control, then looking for an opportunity to submit. Durden will have a significant advantage on the feet but prefers to use his wrestling to control opponents to win rounds. Durden has a chance to smash value with takedown and control or a knockout, so I like him for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Durden
Raulian Paiva (21-4-0) v. Sergey Morozov (17-5-0)
Raulian Paiva - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 21 wins
Sergey Morozov - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not see Paiva putting much of a fight up in this one, and the only way he wins is by a lucky crack or mistake from Morozov. Morozov should be better everywhere this goes and can chain takedowns for control time or look for an early finish. As such, he makes for an excellent cash and GPP play.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Morozov
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (37-10-0) v. TJ Brown (16-8-0)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 37 wins
TJ Brown - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys come from a wrestling background and could find themselves battling for takedowns. Brown will have a significant advantage on the feet and should look to keep the fight there. I expect this to be a 15-minute striking battle, yielding a low score for DFS purposes. Either guy can be used in GPP contests, as a finish is always possible, but I would avoid cash contests.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Brown
Carlos Ulberg (6-1-0) v. Tafon Nchukwi (6-2-0)
Carlos Ulberg - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 4 wins
Tafon Nchukwi - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should primarily take place on the feet for as long as it lasts. Both guys throw a ton of volume and are hittable at times. So long as they do not play it overly cautious, I expect one of them to get knocked out early. I side with Ulberg just a tad, as he throws a bit more volume, but either guy could swing this fight, and both should only be used for GPP contests. A decision would almost certainly yield a low score.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Ulberg
Chris Curtis (28-8-0) v. Rodolfo Vieira (8-1-0)
Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 28 wins
Rodolfo Vieira - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Elite wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Curtis has wowed in two consecutive fights, scoring huge knockouts as a moderate to large dog. He has exceptional power and cardio and could easily find another early knockout here. Vieria does not offer a lot on the feet but is a world-class BJJ specialist and always a threat when the fight hits the mat. He will look early for takedowns, and if he gets Curtis down, the fight will likely end shortly after. Both guys make excellent plays in GPP contests, as this fight will finish early. I like Vieira for cash contests as well.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Vieira
Nate Maness (14-1-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (14-0-0)
Nate Maness - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Umar Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Elite wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Nurmagomedov is the card's biggest favorite, but I do not think this fight will come as easy as the oddsmakers think. He is a vicious wrestler and has looked phenomenal in his two UFC fights, winning by submission in both. However, Maness is as tough as they come and will have the advantage on the feet. If he can keep it there, he can pile up volume or catch Nurmagomedov as he attempts a takedown. On paper and in most people's minds, Nurmagomedov has already won this fight. It is expected that he chains takedowns and then finds another submission. However, Maness is a competent wrestler and grappler in his own right and could put up a great fight and potentially score the upset. Nurmagomedov is safe for cash contests and can be mixed into GPP. Maness is my favorite GPP dart throw on the slate.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Maness
Thiago Moises (15-6-0) v. Christos Giagos (19-9-0)
Thiago Moises - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Christos Giagos - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect a lot of this fight to place on the mat, as both guys prefer to grapple. Moises will have an advantage anywhere the fight goes. Giagos needs to get the fight to the mat and control, or he will find himself in big trouble. Look for Moises to get back into the win column with an early finish and decision with control time and volume. He is a safe play for cash and GPP. Giagos can be sprinkled into GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Moises
Josh Parisian (14-5-0) v. Alan Baudot (8-4-0)
Josh Parisian - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
Alan Baudot - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to stay on the feet for as long as it lasts. Parisian throws high volume but leaves himself hittable. Baudot is similar but tends to guard high a bit more. Both guys need a win, but more so for Baudot, and I think he finally gets it. He should be able to catch Parisian as he walks forward with his immense power and end it early. Both guys are hard to trust, so GPP is the better play.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Baudot
Neil Magny (26-9-0) v. Shavkat Rakhmonov (15-0-0)
Neil Magny - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 25 wins
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Magny has been around a long time and has been a bit of a gatekeeper to the top 10 in the Welterweight division. He has a solid all-around game and will need every bit of it in this one. Rakhmonov continues to smash through fighters, and I expect this to be no different. He has an exceptionally well-rounded game and has finished every fight he has taken. He will pressure forward and should overwhelm Magny on the feet or the mat early and find another finish. Magny can be used as a GPP dart as the experienced veteran, but Rakhmonov should win this handily and is safe for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Rahkmonov
Arman Tsarukyan (18-2-0) v. Mateusz Gamrot (20-1-0, 1NC)
Arman Tsarukyan - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Mateusz Gamrot - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an incredible fight with two highly-touted prospects going at it for 25 minutes. Both guys have similar fighting styles with wrestling backgrounds, and I expect a good mix of striking and grappling. Tsarukyan is the better overall fighter, and I expect him to get his hand raised. This is one of those fights you could stack for cash contests, but I would pick one or the other for GPPs.
UFC Vegas 57 Pick: Tsarukyan
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
