Drake's Takes: UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya 2

Drake's Takes: UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya 2

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 287 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.

Sam Hughes (7-5-0) v. Jaqueline Amorim (6-0-0)

Sam Hughes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins

Jaqueline Amorim - Height: 5'3" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: Amorim is making her debut and should have an edge everywhere. Hughes could find success with takedowns, but if she cannot get top control, she likely loses position. 

UFC 287 Pick: Amorim

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10-0) v. Steve Garcia (13-5-0)

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Low volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 29 finishes in 39 wins

Steve Garcia - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: Nuerdanbieke likely has the edge in the first round, but I expect the striking and wrestling of Garcia to take over after. Garcia is one of my favorite dogs on the card.

UFC 287 Pick: Garcia

Ignacio Bahamondes (13-4-0) v. Trey Ogden (16-5-0)

Ignacio Bahamondes - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins

Trey Ogden - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Bahamondes will have a significant edge on the feet, while Ogden will have an advantage on the mat. However, Ogden likely struggles to get this fight down and will eat too many shots shooting for takedowns. 

UFC 287 Pick: Bahamondes

Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1) v. Lupita Godinez (8-3-0)

Cynthia Calvillo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins

Loopy Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: This will be a stern test for Godinez. Both ladies have found success on the mat, but Calvillo has the better stand-up. This should be a close fight and possible split decision from the judges. However, Calvillo has faced better competition; I see her experience pulling through.  

UFC 287 Pick: Calvillo

Karl Williams (8-1-0) v. Chase Sherman (16-11-0)

Karl Williams - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 679" - Orthodox
~ Low volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins

Chase Sherman - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Sherman will need a knockout early before being taken down. Williams will suffocate him on the mat if he cannot find it. Williams is one of the safest plays on the card. 

UFC 287 Pick: Williams

Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0) v. Jospeh Pyfer (10-2-0)

Gerald Meerschaert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ Low volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 33 finishes in 35 wins

Joe Pyfer - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: Pyfer looked great in his debut but was against much weaker competition than Meerschaert. This will be an excellent test to see where he is at. I like Meerschaert to avoid the power and eventually find a submission. 

UFC 287 Pick: Meerschaert

Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-10-0) v. Luana Pinheiro (10-1-0)

Michelle Waterson-Gomez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins

Luana Pinheiro - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect most of this fight to take place on the mat, as both ladies are proficient wrestlers. Waterson-Gomez has much better experience and will need to avoid the chain takedowns of Pinheiro if she wants to come out on top. If Pinheiro has her way with Waterson-Gomez, she could absolutely crush value.

UFC 287 Pick: Pinheiro

Kelvin Gastelum (17-8-0) v. Chris Curtis (30-9-0)

Kelvin Gastelum - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins

Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 30 wins

DFS Perspective: I like the volume from Curtis to take this one, but without a finish, it likely ends up lower scoring. Gastelum has never been knocked out, so this is a fight I will avoid for DFS.

UFC 287 Pick: Curtis

Raul Rosas (7-0-0) v. Christian Rodriguez (8-1-0)

Raul Rosas - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Low volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins

Christian Rodriguez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: Rosas delivered his promise in his debut and now draws a slight step up in competition. Rodriguez has been taken down too easily in his UFC tenure, and that will really hurt him in this fight. I expect Rosas to come out hot and dominate the ground game. 

UFC 287 Pick: Rosas

Kevin Holland (23-9-0) v. Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0)

Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Improving wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins

Santiago Ponzinibbio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a 15-minute striking affair. Both guys have power and could land something flush, but I see this going to the judges. If Ponzinibbio can figure out the length of Holland, he pulls this out with his volume.

UFC 287 Pick: Ponzinibbio

Rob Font (19-6-0) v. Adrian Yanez (16-3-0)

Rob Font - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 19 wins

Adrian Yanez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal grappling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: Both guys are excellent strikers, and this fight should completely depend on how fast Yanez starts. If he comes out slow, he will fall behind, and Font likely takes a split decision. On the other hand, if he starts fast, I expect him to take all three rounds or potentially give Font his first career knockout loss.

UFC 287 Pick: Yanez

Gilbert Burns (21-5-0) v. Jorge Masvidal (35-16-0)

Gilbert Burns - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 21 wins

Jorge Masvidal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 35 wins

DFS Perspective: Masvidal still has solid power, but a knockout is the only way I see him winning this. Burns will likely have more volume and will have a massive edge on the mat. I expect him to make quick work of Masvidal. 

UFC 287 Pick: Burns

Alex Pereira (7-1-0) v. Israel Adesanya (23-2-0)

 Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins

Israel Adesanya - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins

DFS Perspective: Izzy is still quick and one of the best strikers in the world. However, much like the last fight, I expect Pereira to find the better shots and become 4-0 against his rival. This fight should stay on the feet with both fighters having their chances, but Pereira seems to have Izzy's number, so I will roll with the dog once again.

UFC 287 Pick: Pereira

 

For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 287 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.

FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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