This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Jacksonville card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Cody Brundage (8-4-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (7-1-0)
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Sedriques Dumas - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Dumas was a huge letdown in his debut, getting controlled and eventually submitted in the second round. He now faces Brundage, who will be looking to do the same thing. Dumas will have a considerable reach advantage, so keeping this on the feet will be vital for him. I expect Brundage to explode forward, take Dumas down multiple times and eventually finish him.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Brundage
Tatsuro Taira (13-0-0) v. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2-0)
Tatsuro Taira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Kleydson Rodrigues - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a tight fight between two rising prospects. They are both solid overall, with Taira having an edge on the mat and Rodrigues an edge on the feet. I like the power and speed combination that Rodrigues will bring and see him applying heavy pressure against Taira. I see this going to the scorecards after a thrilling 15 minutes.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Rodrigues
Jamall Emmers (19-6-0) v. Jack Jenkins (11-2-0)
Jamall Emmers - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
Jack Jenkins - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Jenkins won his debut after an impressive fight but is getting a considerable step up in competition in Emmers. The fight will likely start close, but I expect Emmers experience to play a significant role as the fight goes on, earning him a decision after 15 minutes.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Emmers
Trevor Peek (8-0-0) v. Chepe Mariscal (13-6-0)
Trevor Peek - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Jose Mariscal - Height: 5'6" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect another early onslaught from Trevor Peek. Mariscal also has power, but I see him finding little room before he is knocked out. Getting knocked out in this one will be his fourth knockout in seven losses. Peek is one of the best plays for all games on this slate and should crush value with any win.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Peek
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0) v. Joshua Van (7-1-0)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Van will be making a short-notice debut, and while his resume is impressive, it comes against weaker competition than Zhumagulov. I expect Zhumagulov to pick up where he left off in his last fight, controlling the fight and forcing Van to be uncomfortable.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Zhumagulov
Tabatha Ricci (8-1-0) v. Gillian Robertson (12-7-0)
Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Gillian Robertson - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be close, with most of the fight occurring on the mat. Ricci will have the edge in striking and control, while Robertson will sport a considerable edge with grappling. If Robertson cannot find a submission, Ricci should win on the scorecards, but likely with a lower DFS score.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Ricci
Mateusz Rebecki (17-1-0) v. Loik Radzhabov (17-4-1)
Mateusz Rebecki - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 17 wins
Loik Radzhabov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be another high-scoring fight for DFS. Radzhabov had 11 takedowns in his debut but likely will find less success against Rebecki. Rebecki is a solid grappler with excellent takedowns but will also find himself sporting a significant edge in the striking department. I expect Rebecki to put on a show and cruise to another big score.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Rebecki
Randy Brown (16-5-0) v. Wellington Turman (18-6-0)
Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Wellington Turman - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Turman could find success on the mat if he can get it there. Brown has solid takedown defense and has an underrated ground game as well. He should also light Turman up striking. I do not foresee a high score without a finish, but I am confident Brown will win this fight.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Brown
Neil Magny (27-10-0) v. Philip Rowe (10-3-0)
Neil Magny - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 27 wins
Phil Rowe - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be another close fight. I would give Rowe the edge on the feet and Magny the edge on the mat. Magny is more like to win by a low-scoring decision, while Rowe is likelier to record a knockout and smash value as the dog. Rowe has won via knockout in all four UFC wins and will be my pick to do it again.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Rowe
Brendan Allen (21-5-0) v. Bruno Silva (23-8-0)
Brendan Allen - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
Bruno Silva - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Another exciting fight on tap. Allen is a magician on the mat but has started to fall in love with his striking, which could cause issues in this one. Silva has incredible power leading him to 20 knockouts, and is as dangerous as they come on the feet. If Allen attempts to strike with him, he likely gets flatlined. He will dominate if he aims to shoot takedowns and keep this down.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Allen
David Onama (10-2-0) v. Gabriel Santos (10-1-0)
David Onama - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Gabriel Santos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Another bout between two exciting prospects with solid overall games. This fight could go either way, but Santos should be slightly better everywhere. Onama has excellent power and only needs to land flush once, but Santos uses a lot of forward pressure and level changes to drop fighters to the mat. I will side with Santos to win, but I would not be surprised to see Onama pull this out.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Santos
Justin Tafa (6-3-0) v. Austen Lane (12-3-0)
Justin Tafa - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Austen Lane - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Lane has not fought the level of competition that Tafa has, but Tafa's UFC wins are all lower-level UFC fighters, giving Lane an excellent chance to win this debut. He sports a considerable reach advantage and has dangerous forward pressure. Tafa will find pressuring difficult and will likely look to counter with his power. Someone is going down early in this fight and will make an excellent pick for DFS.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Lane
Amanda Ribas (11-3-0) v. Maycee Barber (12-2-0)
Amanda Ribas - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
Maycee Barber - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Barber has arguably been gifted her two most recent wins and will now face a daunting opponent in Ribas, who should be better everywhere. Ribas will be more dangerous and should be the one controlling the fight. A high score for DFS is unlikely to come out of this fight.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Ribas
Josh Emmett (18-3-0) v. Ilia Topuria (13-0-0)
Josh Emmett - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 18 wins
Ilia Topuria - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Topuria is always a DFS favorite, as he always scores well in wins. Emmett's only real path to victory is by knockout, and while Topuria has been shaken up, he has never been knocked out. I expect Topuria to continue fighting at a torrid pace, making this fight look easy.
UFC Jacksonville Pick: Topuria
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Jacksonville DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
