This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Jacksonville takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Josh Emmett (18-3-0) v. Ilia Topuria (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Emmett ($6,700), Topuria ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Emmett (+260), Topuria (-350)
Odds to Finish: -550
Both of these men are not far off impacting the title picture at 145 pounds, and a decisive win either way could do wonders for the future trajectory of the victor.
Emmett needs a win more than Topuria. For starters, he turned 38 years of age this past March. Secondly, he is fresh off a second-round submission defeat to Yair Rodriguez in an interim title fight this past February. Josh has beaten some quality competition over the course of his UFC run (Calvin Kattar, Dan Ige, Shane Burgos), but he's still looking for that one signature victory.
Topuria has appeared unstoppable since arriving on the scene in October 2020, winning all five of his UFC bouts, including the last four via stoppage (three knockouts and a submission). He won't turn 27 years of age until next January, and his upside is among the highest in the featherweight division.
Emmett has much more power than your typical 145-pounder. He's also been extremely durable, getting knocked out just once in his professional career -- no small feat considering Emmett has been known to get sucked into wild brawls at times. That said, he struggles to generate secondary offense, and I could absolutely see a scenario in which his skill set doesn't age well.
Topuria is going to have a massive edge in terms of both athleticism and grappling. He connects on 2.42 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing an impressive 46 percent of his attempts. Emmett defends the takedown at a mediocre 58 percent clip. Standing and trading with Josh is a potential recipe for disaster considering the edge Ilia figures to have most everywhere else.
The DK salaries here are interesting. Topuria is the highest-priced fighter on a card that has 14 scheduled bouts. He deserves to be favored, he'll probably win and I'm picking him, but this looks like a real value spot for Emmett.
I love fighters with a ton of power when searching for significant underdogs, and Emmett fits the bill there. There's a real chance he will find himself pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time, and I think it will be difficult for him to win a decision, but if you have a bunch of other favorites you want to get in your lineup, I certainly don't hate him given his dirt cheap price tag.
That said, Topuria looks the part of a future title challenger, and he's the pick.
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Topuria
Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Amanda Ribas (11-3-0) v. Maycee Barber (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Ribas ($8,900), Barber ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Ribas (-210), Barber (+165)
Odds to Finish: +150
Ribas has been inconsistent over the course of her near four-year UFC run. She started with four straight wins, but is just 2-2 in her last four dating back to January 2021. Amanda has displayed a reasonable all-around skill set, although I wouldn't say she excels in any one area. Set to turn 30 years of age in late-August, she's too old to be considered a "prospect" at this point.
Barber is theoretically in better shape, having won four straight. That said, a deeper dive reveals concerns. All four of those wins came via decision, including two of the split variety. The first one, against Miranda Maverick in July 2021, Barber clearly lost. Maycee just turned 25 years old, so she has considerably more runway ahead of her than Ribas, but I don't think her ceiling is as high as many anticipated upon her company arrival.
I'm very curious to see how this plays out if it turns into an extended kickboxing match. Both are reckless and uber-aggressive on the feet. I would say Ribas is better defensively, but Maycee probably has the technical edge.
The level of competition both women have faced is similar, so there's no real edge there.
The thing that stands out the most is Maycee's poor takedown defense. She defends it at just 47 percent, and Ribas is deceptively strong when in tight. Each of Barber's last four opponents have gotten her to the mat, including being taken down five times by Andrea Lee in her most recent bout this past March. If Ribas gets her down, she might not get back up.
Before the odds were posted for this fight I expected it to be close to a pick 'em. Maybe Ribas around -130 or so. I never in a million years expected such a wide gap, and thus, such an expensive price tag for Ribas. That swings my thinking in the opposite direction.
Simply put, I don't think there is anywhere near a $1600 gap between these two, making Barber the pick and a value play. She has a real chance as long as she can remain upright. Easier said that done, of course.
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Barber
Middleweight
Brendan Allen (21-5-0) v. Bruno Silva (23-8-0)
DK Salaries: Allen ($9,100), Silva ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Allen (-185), Silva (+160)
Odds to Finish: -350
Allen was due to face Jack Hermansson in early-June, but the latter ended up injured and withdrew, so Allen was pulled from the card altogether.
Allen continues to go about his business, winning far more fights than he loses while serving as one of the division's most underrated competitors. Allen has won four in a row (including three via submission) and six of seven dating back to April 2021. Brendan's ceiling probably isn't on the same level as guys such as Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, but I imagine he's not far off.
Silva won his first three UFC bouts via knockout only to lose his next two. He rebounded with another knockout win, this time over Brad Tavares this past April which likely saved his job. Bruno has insane power, with 20 of his 23 career wins coming via knockout. The rest of his skill set is lacking, and I expect him to have problems with more athletic opponents, but the stopping power is entirely legitimate.
Allen isn't known as much of a wrestler, but he's a BJJ black belt who should have an overwhelming edge over Silva on the mat. Six of Bruno's eight career defeats have come via submission. Toss in the fact the entire world knows getting in a slugfest with Silva is a recipe for potential disaster, and I expect Allen to introduce a grappling-heavy game plan.
One-dimensional fighters worry me, particularly those that are aging. Silva will be 34 years of age in mid-July and doesn't have a single submission win in his career. Heck, he only has three decision victories. That makes his path to victory exceptionally small, as he will almost certainly have to knock Allen out.
Allen has been stopped via strikes twice in 26 professional bouts, so he certainly doesn't have a durability problem. He's going to have such a massive advantage everywhere else that he is an easy pick.
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Allen
Welterweight
Neil Magny (27-11-0) v. Phil Rowe (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Magny ($8,500), Rowe ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Magny (-165), Rowe (+135)
Odds to Finish: +110
Magny has been one of the most active fighters in the UFC in recent years, so it should come as no surprise he accepted this bout, one in which he has little to gain and a whole heck of a lot to lose. Neil has lost two of three dating back to June 2022, both via submission. The setbacks came against Gilbert Burns and Shavkat Rakhmonov, two of the best in the division, but it was further evidence Magny -- especially at age 35 -- simply isn't on the same level as the best welterweights around.
It's a little surprising the UFC is rewarding Rowe with this opportunity. Yes, he enters have won three in a row all via knockout, but he also missed weight in two of those fights, something the company typically has very little tolerance for. It's also worth noting Rowe missed by 2.5 pounds each time, so he wasn't all that close.
The most noticeable difference between these two is the level of competition the two men have gone up against. Rowe's most notable opponents were Gabriel Green and Niko Price. Magny has faced Burns, Rakhmonov, Geoff Neal, Daniel Rodriguez, Michael Chiesa, Robbie Lawler, Rafael dos Anjos... well, you get the idea.
It's not quite to the same extent as Silva in the prior bout, but Rowe is entirely dependent on his power to be successful. That's an issue in this fight for two reasons.
First, Magny has been knocked out twice in nearly 40 professional bouts. Second, no fighter is better than Neil (and his team) at tailoring a game plan to a specific opponent. Magny will mix it up to exploit the weaknesses of his opposition, and he certainly will be well aware Rowe's power is what he will have to look out for in this fight.
Magny is an easy pick here, but keep an eye on Rowe on the scale regardless. If he struggles, Neil becomes an even stronger play.
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Magny
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Cody Brundage (8-4-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Brundage ($8,700), Dumas ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Brundage (-210), Dumage (+170)
Odds to Finish: -550
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Brundage
Featherweight
David Onama (10-2-0) v. Gabriel Santos (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Onama ($7,000), Santos ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Onama (+200), Santos (-250)
Odds to Finish: -165
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Santos
Flyweight
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0) v. Joshua Van (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Zhumagulov ($9,000), Van ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Zhumagulov (-185), Van (+150)
Odds to Finish: +120
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Van
Heavyweight
Austen Lane (12-3-0) v. Justin Tafa (6-3-0)
DK Salaries: Lane ($7,400), Tafa ($8,00)
Vegas Odds: Lane (+150), Tafa (-185)
Odds to Finish: -350
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Lane
Welterweight
Randy Brown (16-5-0) v. Wellington Turman (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Brown ($9,300), Turman ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Brown (-250), Turman (+200)
Odds to Finish: -165
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Brown
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki (17-1-0) v. Loik Radzhabov (18-4-1)
DK Salaries: Rebecki ($8,400), Radzhabov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Rebecki (-155), Radzhabov (+125)
Odds to Finish: +105
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Rebecki
Women's Strawweight
Tabatha Ricci (8-1-0) v. Gillian Robertson (12-7-0)
DK Salaries: Ricci ($8,300), Robertson ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Ricci (-140), Robertson (+115)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Ricci
Lightweight
Trevor Peek (8-0-0, 1NC) v. Jose Mariscal (13-6-1)
DK Salaries: Peek ($8,200), Mariscal ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Peek (-110), Mariscal (-110)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Peek
Featherweight
Jamall Emmers (19-6-0) v. Jack Jenkins (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Emmers ($8,600), Jenkins ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Emmers (-190), Jenkins (+155)
Odds to Finish: +105
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Emmers
Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira (13-0-0) v. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Taira ($9,400), Rodrigues ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Taira (-300), Rodrigues (+240)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC JACKSONVILLE PICK: Taira
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Jacksonville with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
