This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
UFC 280 is more than just a fan's delight, it's also another opportunity for bettors to make hay by taking advantage of juicy dogs and light favorites. We'll break down four plays across the 12-fight slate, including three prop bets that play directly into the strengths of our fighters and the weaknesses of their opponents. Our betting lines this week come from the Rotowire MMA odds page and are accurate as to the post date of this article.
Weight class: Welterweight
Sean Brady (15-0-0) vs. Belal Muhammad (21-3-0 1 NC)
A 15-0 start to any MMA career would make fans and pundits take notice, and Brady is no exception. From his speed to his creative combinations and devastating BJJ, it's easy to see why the 29-year-old has been pegged as a future star of the welterweight division. It must be noted, however, that the tests will get progressively stiffer from here on out, and the UFC may have found one he can't pass.
Our first indication that a rise in the ranks may trouble Brady came in his last bout with Michael Chiesa. While the stat sheet will show repeat takedowns and lengthy control time, Brady's cardio failed him in the later rounds, resulting in the undefeated fighter nearly getting KO'ed in the final frame. This will be an issue against Muhhamad, who looks to weaponize his cardio and drag his opponent into deep waters. Brady can also be caught waiting for his opponents in space. A 3.91 significant strikes per minute mark doesn't exactly suggest a slow worker, but "Remember the Name" is known for putting volume on opponents (4.31 significant strikes per minute) and may simply overwhelm his opponent with offense.
Muhammad has showcased elite takedown defense (91 percent), having never been grounded more than once in a fight. If Brady can't bring the fight to the ground, he will need to spend the better portion of 15 minutes dealing with a relentless pace. As the more experienced fighter here, I'll happily take Belal at slight underdog odds.
UFC 280 BET: Belal Muhammad (+120)
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Karol Rosa (15-4-0) vs. Lina Lansberg (10-6-0)
Rosa comes into this matchup as the rightful large favorite (-325), having amassed a 4-1 record in the Octagon, with all of those wins coming by decision. it's a wonder, then, that we can get such a good price on that result against a struggling opponent who has not been finished since 2017.
Rosa uses her size and frame to bully her opponents in the Octagon, and while she was overcome by a lifelong wrestler in Sara McMann last time out, Lansberg has never had much success bringing the fight to the mat, as we can see from the 0.68 takedowns she has logged per 15 minutes of fight time. Instead, it seems likely that "Elbow Queen" will try and pin Rosa against the fence, but the Brazilian fighter's footwork should help her keep space. Lansberg was also dominated by McMann in the grappling department, meaning we can't take that as evidence that Rosa will struggle with the Swedish fighter in the same way.
Rosa is the better fighter in every aspect of martial arts, which is why we should jump at the chance to lock in a severely reduced line for her most likely method of victory. This is particularly true since Lansberg isn't dominant in the area of the fight that is her best path to win.
UFC 280 BET: Karol Rosa wins by Decision (-120)
Weight class: Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (28-9-0) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (18-6-0)
A 1.41 takedown rate per 15 minutes of cage time may not scream "committed wrestler" but Krylov will always look to press the advantage on the ground and hunt for a submission, as evidenced by the 1.3 submission average he holds over that time. Oezdemir is a dangerous fighter in space but was dominated on the ground by the only two grapplers he has faced in the organization, which should give Krylov a clear line to victory.
"No Time" got his nickname as the result of quick finishes when he first entered the organization, but we quickly learned that long fights are to his detriment, as he tends to get tired and sloppy when opponents stay in his face for an extended period of time. Krylov will need to fade the big power early, but the Ukrainian fighter has been stopped by strikes just once in his 37-fight career, which should provide confidence that he can weather the storm.
There may be a few rough moments in Round 1, but Krylov will likely persist in his attempts to get the fight to the ground and is a far superior grappler to Volkan. We should also point out that this is not similar to Oezdemir's fight with Paul Craig, as Krylov is a karate black belt with 12 KOs among his 28 wins.
UFC 280 BET: Nikita Krylov wins via submission (+260)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (8-0-0 1 NC) vs Malcolm Gordon (14-5-0)
To say Gordon didn't impress in his first two UFC fights would be an understatement, as "X" failed to make it out of Round 1 before being knocked out in both bouts. While he has bounced back to collect two wins (including his first KO in the organization) he still has the same flaws that will lead Mokaev to a comfortable victory.
Mokaev stormed out of the gates with an opportunistic submission of Cody Durden, and while he was unable to finish Charles Johnson, the 12 takedowns and 11:44 of control time he amassed should be a solid indication of his fighting style. Gordon has shown himself to be far too comfortable off of his back, attempting to keep up in scrambles with fighters who are slick in top position. This led to his submission loss in his UFC debut, and it stands to reason that a strong grappler like Mokaev will be able to control Gordon on the ground.
Mokaev looks like the real deal, and while there is a bit more to Gordon than what we saw in his initial performances, this looks like another scenario where he will meet an opponent that simply overwhelms him.
UFC 280 BET: Muhammad Mokaev wins via submission (+120)
UFC 280 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 2780 card:
- Belal Muhammad (+120)
- Karol Rosa wins via decision (-120)
- Nikita Krylov wins via submission (+260)
- Muhammad Mokaev wins via submission (+120)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
