This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC's final pay-per-view of 2022 goes down on Saturday, December 10 with the vacant light heavyweight title up for grabs, as Jan Blachowicz takes on Magomed Ankalaev.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo (16-4) vs. Alexander Hernandez (13-5)
A banger of a featherweight fight is found on the early prelims, as Billy Quarantillo takes on Alexander Hernandez, who is dropping down in weight. I like Quarantillo to get the win.
First off, I do not like the move to 145lbs for Hernandez, who seemed like a big lightweight. Yet, the knock on Hernandez has been his cardio, and dropping 10 pounds against a cardio machine in Quarantillo is not a good matchup.
The way Hernandez wins fights is to bully opponents and get an early KO. However, Quarantillo has a great chin, and I expect him to survive the first round and take over. His pace will be too much for Hernandez, and he'll either get a late stoppage or a clear-cut decision win. I had lined Quarantillo at around a -210 favorite, so to get him below -200 is great value.
UFC 282 Best Bet: Billy Quarantillo (-165)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Chris Curtis (29-9) vs. Joaquin Buckley (15-5)
I do not understand why Joaquin Buckley is the betting favorite over Chris Curtis.
Buckley has had a mediocre UFC career, and when he gets a step up in competition, he has lost (Holland and Imavov). Although many peg him as having KO power, the guys he has knocked out have been known to have bad chins. Meanwhile, his chin is a concern, as Holland and Alessio di Chirico both knocked him out. He also won't be able to get Curtis down, as Curtis has yet to be taken down in the UFC.
On the feet, Curtis throws a ton of volume, while Buckley waits for the shots to get the KO win. I like Curtis to just out-volume him on the feet and win a decision.
UFC 282 Best Bet: Chris Curtis (+135)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (19-3) vs. Jared Gordon (19-5)
Paddy Pimblett makes his pay-per-view debut, and I like the Brit to win inside the distance against Jared Gordon.
Pimblett is 3-0 in the UFC with three finishes and has been matched up well so far, and this fight against Gordon is very similar. Pimblett has legit KO power, while his ground game is slick and he can get a submission quickly.
Gordon, meanwhile, is a good wrestler but was submitted two fights ago by Grant Dawson while also having a questionable chin. I see a way for Pimblett to either KO or submit Gordon, so the better way to attack this fight is by taking Pimblett inside the distance at plus money.
UFC 282 Best Bet: Paddy Pimblett ITD (+100)
Weight Classes: Flyweight & Light Heavyweight
Vinicius Salvador (14-4) vs. Daniel da Silva (11-4)
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1) vs. Jan Blachowicz (29-9)
For my parlay, I'm taking Vinicius Salvador and Magomed Ankalaev to get their hands raised Saturday night.
Salvador is making his UFC debut, and usually, I don't like to take fighters stepping into the Octagon for the first time. This is the perfect matchup, however. Salvador has a ton of power at flyweight, while Daniel Da Silva is 0-3 in the UFC and has been finished in all three of his fights. He is a kill-or-be-killed fighter, and I expect Salvador to land heavy shots and KO da Silva early into this one.
The other leg is a parlay is taking Ankalaev to become the newest light heavyweight champion against Jan Blachowicz. Anakalaev is the real deal, and his one way to lose is to get KO'd by Blachowicz. That's an outcome I can't see happening.
Instead, I like Ankalaev to be able to outpoint Blachowicz and also mix in his wrestling to control him on the ground and either get a submission or ground-and-pound TKO.
UFC 282 Best Bet: Vinicius Salvador & Magomed Ankalaev (-101)
UFC 282 Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 282 event:
- Billy Quarantillo (-165)
- Chris Curtis (+135)
- Paddy Pimblett ITD (+100)
- Vinicius Salvador & Magomed Ankalaev parlay (-101)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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