This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 316
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 316 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 149-65-1 ~ Dog Picks 24-19-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Khaos Williams 2 Units -190
Bet of the Week Record: 10-7-1 +585
DFS Lock of the Week: Merab Dvalishvili - 14-2
Fanduel Captain: Dvalishvili/Harrison
Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) v. Sean O'Malley (18-2-0)
Merab Dvalishvili (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 15 decisions)
- Relentless chain wrestler who weaponizes pace better than almost anyone
- Leads the UFC in total takedowns landed and attempts per 15 minutes
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18 wins (11 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 5 decisions)
- Sniper from range with slick footwork and excellent shot selection
- Spent this camp focused on anti-wrestling and keeping distance
DFS Perspective: I'm heavily on Dvalishvili to repeat his performance here. O'Malley's striking is dangerous early, but Merab's pace, cardio and pressure are on another level. Unless O'Malley can catch him clean before the grind starts, this feels like a rinse-and-repeat smothering. Dvalishvili is an elite DFS play with takedown and control upside. High floor, high ceiling.
UFC 316 Pick: Dvalishvili
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Julianna Pena (11-5-0) v. Kayla Harrison (18-1-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Aggressive grappler with strong top pressure and physicality
- Willing to take damage to create scrambles and openings
Kayla Harrison (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18 wins (6 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Olympic-level judo with dominant throws and ground control
- Extremely strong in the clinch and excels at controlling pace
DFS Perspective: I really like Harrison in this matchup. Her physicality and judo base should be overwhelming, especially if this fight hits the mat early and often. Pena's durability is a factor, but she's likely going to be stuck defending and reacting for most of the fight. Harrison should rack up control time and could find a finish late.
UFC 316 Pick: Harrison
Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0) v. Joe Pyfer (13-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20 wins (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Compact striker with solid boxing fundamentals and durability
- Utilizes forward pressure and a strong chin to engage opponents
Joe Pyfer (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Powerful puncher known for explosive finishes
- Employs a patient approach, waiting for opportunities to land heavy shots
DFS Perspective: I like Pyfer in this matchup. His size and power advantage could pose significant problems for Gastelum. However, if Pyfer doesn't secure an early finish, the fight might become a slower-paced affair, potentially leading to a lower DFS score. Proceed with caution if targeting this bout for fantasy purposes.
UFC 316 Pick: Pyfer
Vicente Luque (23-10-1) v. Kevin Holland (27-13-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23 wins (11 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with a penchant for finishing fights
- Possesses a strong submission game, particularly with D'Arce chokes
Kevin Holland (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27 wins (13 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Dynamic striker known for unorthodox techniques and reach advantage
- Effective at utilizing length to keep opponents at bay
DFS Perspective: Luque is always dangerous, but if we see the Holland we saw in his last fight, he should be able to take this aged version of Luque. Holland's reach and dynamic striking could pose significant problems for Luque, especially if he maintains distance and avoids prolonged exchanges. While Luque's power and submission skills are threats, Holland's recent performance suggests he's poised to handle this challenge effectively.
UFC 316 Pick: Holland
Mario Bautista (15-2-0) v. Patchy Mix (20-1-0)
Mario Bautista (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 15 wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with a balanced mix of striking and grappling
- Demonstrates resilience and the ability to adapt during fights
Patchy Mix (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20 wins (2 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Submission specialist known for his aggressive ground game
- Making his UFC debut after an incredible championship run in Bellator
DFS Perspective: I'm siding with the underdog, Bautista, in this matchup. While Mix is a formidable submission artist, it's crucial to see how his skills translate to the UFC level. Bautista is no pushover; if he can avoid the early submission attempts, I believe he has the durability and cardio to outlast Mix. This fight could be a proving ground for both fighters, but Bautista's experience in the UFC might give him the edge.
UFC 316 Pick: Bautista
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations and generate DFS lineups for mass entry with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Bruno Silva (14-6-2) v. Joshua Van (13-2-0)
Bruno Silva (Risky GPP option)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with a penchant for early finishes
- Experienced grappler with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Joshua Van (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Technical striker with excellent takedown defense
- Maintains a high pace and showcases strong cardio throughout bouts
DFS Perspective: I love Van in this matchup. Silva struggles against strikers with elite takedown defense, which is exactly what Van brings to the table. I expect Van to keep the fight standing, where he can utilize his technical striking to lay punishment on Silva. If Van maintains his usual pace and distance management, he could end this early.
UFC 316 Pick: Van
Ariane da Silva (17-10-0) v. Cong Wang (7-1-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with a background in Muay Thai
- Possesses a solid submission game when fights hit the mat
Cong Wang (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7 wins (2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Powerful striker known for her pressure and knockout potential
- Elite takedown defense
DFS Perspective: This fight hinges on whether da Silva can get Wang to the ground. I don't think she can, and that puts her at significant risk. Wang's power and relentless pressure could lead to a knockout if da Silva can't implement her grappling. I'm leaning towards Wang to keep it standing and potentially end it early.
UFC 316 Pick: Wang
Serghei Spivac (17-5-0) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (13-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Heavyweight grappler with a strong clinch and ground game
- Prefers to wear opponents down with top pressure and submissions
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decisions)
- Boxing-based striker with solid takedown defense
- Maintains a steady pace and utilizes range effectively
DFS Perspective: Much like the last fight, this hinges on whether Spivac can get it to the mat. Cortes-Acosta hasn't had his takedown defense seriously tested yet, so I wouldn't keep Spivac out of DFS entries completely. The fight will probably have competitive stretches, but I lean Cortes-Acosta to keep it upright and get the job done on the feet.
UFC 316 Pick: Cortes-Acosta
Joo Sang Yoo (8-0-0) v. Jeka Saragih (10-3-0)
Joo Sang Yoo (Risky GPP option)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Undefeated prospect making his UFC debut
- Balanced skill set with a mix of striking and grappling
Jeka Saragih (Risky GPP option)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 1 decision)
- Explosive striker with a high finish rate
- Brings significant experience from regional circuits
DFS Perspective: Yoo is an undefeated prospect making his UFC debut, and this will easily be his biggest test to date. Saragih's experience and finishing ability present a formidable challenge. While Yoo has shown promise, it's crucial to see how he handles the step up in competition. This matchup will be a telling indicator of his potential at the UFC level. I can see both fighters having their moments in this one, but I will side with the undefeated prospect.
UFC 316 Pick: Yoo
Azamat Murzakanov (14-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (17-7-0)
Azamat Murzakanov (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Undefeated fighter known for his explosive striking and finishing ability
- Utilizes forward pressure and powerful combinations to overwhelm opponents
Brendson Ribeiro (Risky GPP option)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (9 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 1 decision)
- Tall, rangy striker with a diverse finishing arsenal
- Employs a patient approach, waiting for opportunities to land heavy shots
DFS Perspective: Ribeiro has a puncher's chance, especially with a massive 10-inch reach advantage, but this still feels like Murzakanov's fight to lose. If Azamat can close the distance and make this dirty, his power and pressure should take over. DFS-wise, there's finish potential on both sides, but I trust Murzakanov more to deliver.
UFC 316 Pick: Murzakanov
Quillan Salkilld (8-1-0) v. Yanal Ashmouz (8-1-0)
Quillan Salkilld (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Former Eternal MMA Lightweight Champion with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
- Known for relentless pressure and a well-rounded skill set
Yanal Ashmouz (Risky GPP option)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decision)
- Explosive striker with a compact frame and knockout power
- Utilizes aggressive forward movement to overwhelm opponents
DFS Perspective: Ashmouz is dangerous early with serious power, but I see more paths to victory for Salkilld. He's got the length, the ground game and the cardio to take over if this gets out of the first round. As long as he avoids the early bombs, he should be able to chip away and eventually take control. Viable DFS play with finishing and volume upside if he plays it smart.
UFC 316 Pick: Salkilld
Marquel Mederos (10-1-0) v. Mark Choinski (8-0-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Technical striker with sharp combinations and solid takedown defense
- Aims to secure his first UFC finish after two decision victories
Mark Choinski (Interesting GPP Dart Throw)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (1 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 2 decision)
- Undefeated prospect making his UFC debut
- Three-time All-American Division III wrestler with a 76% finish rate
DFS Perspective: Choinski enters the UFC with an unblemished record and a strong wrestling pedigree, but this is a significant step up in competition. Mederos should be the more polished fighter in all areas. If he can keep the fight standing and avoid Choinski's grappling, Mederos has the tools to control the bout and come out on top.
UFC 316 Pick: Mederos
Khaos Williams (15-4-0) v. Andreas Gustafsson (11-2-0)
Khaos Williams (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decisions)
- Explosive striker with a reputation for quick finishes
- Demonstrates patience and composure, often waiting for the right moment to unleash power shots
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Aggressive fighter making his UFC debut
- Known for forward pressure and a high finish rate on the regional scene
DFS Perspective: Gustafsson is a dangerous debutant with knockout power, but this is a significant step up in competition. Williams' experience and composure should allow him to weather any early storms. Expect Williams to let Gustafsson expend energy early, then capitalize with his own offense as the fight progresses.
UFC 316 Pick: Williams
RotoWire has the latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event, plus compares markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
